The State of It

Does Labour have the will to implement serious welfare reform and bring down the benefits bill? Alan Milburn's report on Neets, young people not in education, employment or training, comes out next week. Andy Burnham's plan is to spend money first, to bring the welfare bill down in the long run. What will voters make of that?Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party is promising £36bn in welfare cuts, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is pitching itself as the party of the working man and promising even deeper cuts. Meanwhile, Russell Brand’s convictions for rape and sexual assault have dragged Ed Miliband’s infamous 2015 election interview with Brand back into the headlines. The education secretary, Lucy Powell, has mounted an awkward defence, which hasn't gone down that well. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but then again, so is due diligence.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty ImagesThis podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After Donald Trump took an almighty shellacking in the US midterms, Andy Burnham is left waiting to see what the American president does next. Will Trump escalate the war in Iran or find a way out? The difference could mean the difference between soaring inflation and higher energy bills, or falling oil prices, stronger growth and relief for households. With Britain largely powerless to influence the decision, Westminster is watching Washington closely.Meanwhile, Russell Brand’s conviction has reopened questions about Labour’s embrace of him in 2015. What are the political consequences for Ed Miliband and Andy Burnham? And could the controversy over the defence barrister’s arguments about rape myths lead to changes in how judges direct juries? Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty ImagesThis podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Brexit is back, but did it ever really go away? Andy Burnham is preparing to make some big concessions to the EU to get his latest deal over the line. On the table? Youth mobility, equal university fees for EU students and Britain aligning with EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars — all while the bloc pushes ahead with its ‘Made in Europe’ protectionist plan, which threatens to shut British industry out.Meanwhile, Shabana Mahmood has been forced to water down her immigration reforms to head off a rebellion of more than 100 Labour MPs. Care workers who meet their visa conditions will keep a five-year route to settlement, rather than face the tougher new rules; around 300,000 fewer people will be caught by the changes. Has she suffered a humiliating climbdown, or has she still pushed through one of the biggest shake-ups of legal migration in decades?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonPictures: Getty ImagesThis podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Healey’s first Budget is being dubbed the “Bronski Beat Budget”: a Chancellor running away from the big decisions on welfare and defence. With growth downgraded, energy bills set to soar and taxes at record highs, how much room for manoeuvre does he really have? And is this Burnham’s economy now, with the Chancellor merely keeping the engine running until the Prime Minister’s 10-year plan arrives?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonPictures: Getty ImagesThis podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Arguing in the Labour party is ramping up. Andy Burnham has further fuelled the Brexit wars, floating a return to free movement and even EU membership, even though he claimed there was “nothing socialist” about free movement a decade ago. Is this political manoeuvring, or does Burnham himself know where he wants to end up?Meanwhile, Labour’s cabinet is split over North Sea drilling and immigration, with ministers publicly contradicting one another. Is Burnham a sort of Scouse Boris, coasting on charisma alone?And then there’s Wednesday's Budget. A fuel duty freeze, help with energy bills and a possible bank tax are all in the mix — but with the public finances under pressure, could John Healey have a rabbit up his sleeve?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonPictures: Getty Images00:00 - The Free Movement Bombshell00:33 - The Scoop: How Andy Burnham Reopened the Brexit Debate01:22 - Did Burnham Cross His Own Red Lines?03:41 - Testing the Waters: Tactical Leak or Honest Mistake?05:46 - A Scouse Boris? Burnham’s High-Risk Politics07:44 - European Summit Secrets & Whitehall Panic09:20 - Cabinet Mutiny: The Ministers Pushing Back12:10 - Rejoining vs Growth: The Threat to British AI & Industry13:30 - Burnham vs His Past Self: The 2016 Anti-EU Speech15:48 - Cabinet Split Round 2: The Rosebank Oil War18:24 - Resignation Watch: Will Ed Miliband Walk?21:17 - The Brutal Pile-On Against Shabana Mahmood23:26 - Leaked Budget: OBR Warns of Record-Breaking Taxes25:04 - Cost of Living: Fuel Duty, Energy Hikes & "Puffin" Borrowing26:55 - John Healey's Warning: "An Economic Storm Is Coming"29:40 - The Global Crisis: Why the Government Can’t Save Your Wallet31:25 - Final Predictions & Tomorrow's Budget SpecialThis podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane, a close ally of Andy Burnham, has sounded the alarm over the upcoming budget, warning the Prime Minister can’t “vibe-code his way to growth”.Patrick joins John Healey on the road, getting a glimpse of the Chancellor’s pro-business pitch — and the bottle of HP Sauce he keeps in his briefcase.Ben takes us inside the budget, unpacking four key areas: help with business costs, support for households facing rising energy bills, a fuel duty freeze and a package to tackle youth unemployment. Can Healey’s budget deliver meaningful change, or is the big stuff still being kicked down the road?Ben reflects on his time with Andy Burnham, exploring the mayor’s ambitions, political instincts and frustration with Westminster — and what his first 100 days reveal about his wider national project.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPictures: Getty ImagesThis podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andy Burnham's welfare reforms are likely to start with more, not less, spending. In his review into Neets, young people not in education, employment or training, Alan Milburn will propose restricting access to universal credit for 16 to 24-year-olds, and spending money instead on employment support. The prime minister will tell MPs the government needs to spend first, cut later to bring about meaningful welfare reform. That may please Labour MPs but will the bond markets keep the faith?Meanwhile, the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is facing opposition within Labour over plans to double the wait for indefinite leave to remain from five to 10 years. Will Burnham back her reforms, or carve out an exception for migrant care workers?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPictures: Getty ImagesThis podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this live recording of The State of It, Patrick and Steve assess the state of play ahead of budget day.John Healey is preparing a steady-as-she-goes budget, but with the big decisions on welfare, defence and tax rises pushed into next year, is Labour ducking the difficult choices?Meanwhile, AI evangelists want Britain to seize the opportunities, while Ed Miliband is pushing back on environmental grounds. Cue an almighty cabinet row.Reform UK’s poll lead has narrowed as Restore eats into its support. But is Westminster writing off Nigel Farage too soon? Reform remains the most trusted party on immigration and is sharpening its economic pitch to working-class voters.Finally, Andy Burnham faces one of Labour’s biggest challenges: reforming the welfare system.Recorded in Westminster as part of The Battle of Ideas festival.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - "The bond vigilantes are ready to split our throats" 00:09 - Inside Healey’s budget: Bank taxes & disappearing headroom 02:04 - "He’s a dud": Cabinet backbiting over the Chancellor 04:34 - The budget trap: Delaying big tax rises until next year 07:02 - Courting the squeezed middle: Business rates vs Reform UK 08:53 - Shock YouGov polling: Only 3% expect to be better off 11:24 - Is Reform UK finished, or are the pundits wrong? 15:45 - The bizarre reason Number 10 secretly wants a Tory comeback 18:12 - Cabinet AI civil war: Silicon Valley vs British jobs 22:30 - The UK grid crisis: Can we even power AI data centres? 24:51 - The Milburn Review: Plans to ban benefits for under-25s 29:19 - Broken PIP system: Backdated lump sums and 18-year assessment delays 32:15 - Can Labour ever shake the "welfare party" label?This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andy Burnham has pulled the lever marked ‘Brexit’, threatening to reignite the wars of yesteryear. The soft left are delighted, but there’s unease in his cabinet. Is this a route back to a referendum, or just a meagre SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) deal? Or is Burnham already firing the opening shots of his election campaign — at the expense of the leave-voting areas he promised to win over? Has he already failed the Makerfield test?It’s budget season, and speculation is mounting over what’s inside John Healey’s red box. This is billed as a budget for the high street: for the white van man and the beauticians of Rotherham, funded by a crackdown on online retail giants. But with John Lewis sounding the alarm, how far will the chancellor go?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesBen Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - The Brexit Wars Return 02:51 - Why Andy Burnham Wants Closer EU Ties 05:25 - Nigel Farage Delighted & Secret Cabinet Rifts 08:04 - The Real Cost: Free Movement & Single Market Traps 10:50 - Is Labour Priming The Polls For An Early Election? 13:46 - Has Burnham Abandoned The 'Makerfield Test'? 17:46 - The Russia Claim: Anatomy Of A 24-Hour U-Turn 20:06 - "Authenticity" Or Chaos? Burnham's Loose Talk 22:25 - The Budget: John Healey Targets 'White Van Man' 26:11 - High Street vs Online Giants: Retailers Strike Back 28:56 - Historic Tax Hikes: Distracting From The PainThis podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Zack Polanski's defeat in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election puts him in a tough position. The Green leader lost the by-election by 3,300 votes to Sagal Abdi-Wali, the Labour candidate. He's also facing criticism after the Green Party voted to declare that Zionism is racism. Polanski did not vote and has been accused of failing to show leadership. How tenable is his position now?Plus, parliament is back next week and the real business of government gets going. We look at what's in store and how the chancellor, John Healey, is preparing for a very, very difficult budget.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducer: Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - By-Election Result: Labour Wins Holborn & St Pancras 00:36 - Is Zack Polanski’s Leadership in Trouble? 01:56 - Green Party Rifts & The Palestine Motion Controversy 07:34 - Is This the Beginning of the End for Polanski? 11:06 - Andy Burnham’s Electoral Boost & Labour’s Position 11:44 - Parliament Returns: Navigating the Autumn Budget 13:18 - John Healey, Treasury Trips, and Bank of England Warnings 16:39 - Defence Spending vs Public Services Dilemma 20:39 - Welfare Reviews, Jackdaw Gas Field & Election Speculation This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.