The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA sits down with James Roulston in FI FX Sales to discuss the further break higher for the US dollar on Fed rate hike expectations following the strong CPI data. Is the move justified? Derek also explains some of the details of yen flows that have curtailed scope for yen recovery like the huge NISA-related foreign equity buying. AI is also discussed as well with higher rates likely the real challenge ahead for AI trades.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss how the results from the US mid-term elections could impact USD performance going forward. Does a ‘Blue Wave’ favour a weaker USD?  In addition, they discuss the outlook for BoE policy after the MPC voted to hike rates for the first time this year.

Following a busy week of central bank meetings and further evidence of deteriorating sentiment related to AI, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Matt Baldwin, Head of Corporate FX Solutions in the US to discuss the impact of the FOMC meeting on the US dollar. AI is a common thread through their discussions and given the current sell-off in AI Derek outlined the potential FX impact across some of G10. There was also a discussion about the BoJ following the formal acknowledgement from Governor Ueda that the inflation goal of 2.0% had been achieved.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss what have been the main drivers of EUR weakness. Investor risk sentiment has deteriorated over the past week. How is that impacting the FX market?

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down to talk with Simon Mayes, Global Client Sales about the rates market positioning after the inflation data this week and what the potential FX impact could be moving forward. Derek also discusses the Korean won volatility and the Indonesian rupiah following the MSCI announcement. The discussion closes off with an updated view on the pound amid some signs of consumer strains.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the key data releases and events in the week ahead for the USD. Are short-term economic fundamentals aligned for further USD strength?

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how the FX market is being increasingly impacted by the global market sell-off. How are FX option flows changing in response to renewed fragmentation risks in the euro-zone?  

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss FX Corporate Sales to discuss the implications of the huge sell-off in fixed income over recent weeks. Derek highlights the growing risks of the selling in fixed income spreading to risk assets and FX carry could suffer as well. There is also a discussion on what lies ahead next week with the key US jobs report and the RBA monetary policy announcement.

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined today by Nicolaus Jan Thiesen in FX Sales in Duesseldorf to discuss the latest developments in the financial markets. It was a busy week, so Derek provides an updated US dollar view following the rate hike by the FOMC this week. The USD/JPY move at the end of the week following the BoJ rate hike is also discussed and whether prospects are still good for EUR/JPY to move lower again. QT changes by the BoE and the impact on the pound close out the discussion.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka Fisher, Director in Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss potentially spillovers for the FX market from the accelerating bond market sell-off. How will upcoming BoJ and Fed policy meetings impact the JPY and USD?