The J Curve with Olga Maslikhova

In this special edition of TJC Debrief, Paulo Passoni, Managing Partner at Valor Capital, and Olga Maslikhova lay out the bull, bear and base cases for Brazil’s economy. We look at what each would mean for the Brazilian real, interest rates and the next wave of IPOs.Then we get into three of the biggest opportunities for investors and entrepreneurs in Brazil over the next four years, from buying secondaries in profitable financial services companies to building AI startups for Latin America’s largest industries and investing in the power and data centers those businesses will need.We also discuss recent deals in Brazil, including Itaú’s $600 million acquisition of NeoSpace. When your biggest customer offers to buy the company, how do you decide whether to sell or keep building?We close with a thought exercise. If you were building a Latin America-focused venture capital firm from scratch today, where would you start? Would you focus on Brazil or invest across the region? How would you get into the handful of companies that drive an entire fund’s returns? And if you passed on one at seed, as Valor did with Tractian, what would it take to go back and buy in?This is TJC Debrief—a monthly conversation decoding the most important developments across technology, venture capital, Latin America and global markets.Subscribe to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The J Curve Insider⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter for deeper insights and follow Olga on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Paulo Passoni, Managing Partner at Valor Capital, and Olga Maslikhova unpack how to pick the winners in AI when historical benchmarks stop working, why Paulo would sell his home to buy Higgsfield stock, and whether OpenAI and Anthropic will leave room for anyone else. This is TJC Debrief — a monthly show covering tech, venture, and capital markets for Latin American founders and investors.We cover why base-rate thinking initially kept Paulo on the sidelines of AI and what ElevenLabs and Perplexity revealed that changed his mind, how conviction builds through repeated founder interactions and conversations with investors who disagree with you, why cybersecurity could overtake coding as AI’s biggest use case, how AI is transforming due diligence—from reconstructing Higgsfield’s revenue using four million transactions to analyzing loan tapes—and why pitch decks could give way to direct access to company data. We discuss how hypergrowth can conceal poor unit economics, why you can pick the right AI company and still make a terrible investment, what remains valuable when AI does the analytical work, and how Latin America gives investors an edge in backing global companies. Plus: the risk of being “short innovation” when investing in AI infrastructure, NVIDIA’s interest in a world with multiple model providers, and why established companies should use AI to build new revenue streams—even if that means competing with their own business.Partners: Huge thank you to our partners: ⁠⁠iFood Beneficios ⁠⁠⁠⁠Jeeves⁠⁠Subscribe to ⁠⁠⁠⁠The J Curve Insider⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter for deeper insights and follow Olga on ⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Arthur Freitas is CEO of iFood Benefícios, the food benefits business inside Brazil’s leading food delivery platform. When he took over iFood Benefícios, the business was burning millions of dollars and was at real risk of being shut down. Today, it’s growing triple digits annually, serving 1.5 million users and processing roughly $220 million in monthly transactions. Our conversation is a masterclass in what it takes to turn a struggling division into a new growth engine.In this episode, Arthur shares the decisions behind that turnaround: reducing the team from roughly 750 people to 250, removing unsustainable customer incentives and rebuilding growth around SMBs before expanding into enterprise. We unpack Brazil’s $30–40 billion food benefits market, how four incumbents came to control more than 95% of it, and why the shift from closed arrangements—where providers maintain their own merchant acceptance networks—to cards running on existing payment rails changed the economics of the industry. We discuss how iFood’s consumer DNA shaped its “Ask your HR” campaign, what it takes to earn credibility with enterprise buyers, and why selling to HR alone can cost you a deal. Arthur also explains how AI agents now handle roughly half of SMB sales while salespeople move toward larger accounts, why having those capabilities earlier might have reinforced the wrong strategy, and what he believes competitors will find hardest to replicate about iFood Benefícios.Partners: Huge thank you to our partners: ⁠iFood Beneficios ⁠⁠Jeeves⁠Subscribe to ⁠⁠⁠The J Curve Insider⁠⁠⁠ newsletter for deeper insights and follow Olga on ⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠.

Dileep Thazhmon, founder and CEO of Jeeves, explains how AI and stablecoins are changing the economics of building a global fintech—and why licenses, compliance and customer trust matter more as technology becomes easier to replicate.We unpack Jeeves’ $110M raise, the decision to shut down parts of the business before rebuilding, and how the company grew revenue 10X with fewer employees. Dileep also shares his approach to fundraising: control the information you share, run a structured process, and understand the person behind the fund.Plus: why launching a neobank doesn’t mean building the next Nubank, how Jeeves cut the cost of entering a new country from $1M to around $200K, and why Dileep believes the future belongs to managers who still do the work.Huge thank you to our partners: ⁠⁠iFood Beneficios ⁠⁠⁠⁠Jeeves⁠⁠Subscribe to ⁠⁠⁠⁠The J Curve Insider⁠⁠⁠⁠ newsletter for deeper insights and follow Olga on ⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Bruno Maimone, Head of Warburg Pincus Brazil, explains how AI is reshaping private equity, growth investing and enterprise software—and why Brazil’s scarcity of capital can make its category leaders stronger.We unpack Warburg’s playbook for exits and secondaries, the cash-flow discipline that protects investors from FOMO, and why net-new revenue can reveal more than a company’s headline growth rate.Plus: how Jusbrasil, Blip, Sólides, Contabilizei and Omie are building durable advantages—and Bruno’s bold prediction for Latin America that sounds crazy today but may seem obvious five years from now.Partners: Huge thank you to our partners: ⁠iFood Beneficios ⁠⁠Jeeves⁠Subscribe to ⁠⁠⁠The J Curve Insider⁠⁠⁠ newsletter for deeper insights and follow Olga on ⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠.

What is Stripe really buying in its $8B+ OpenRouter acquisition—and why could a company that reaches $16 billion in revenue still disappoint investors? Olga and Paulo Passoni unpack AI model routing, durable moats, runaway valuations, the compute bottleneck, and the growth benchmarks that matter now. Then they turn to Latin America: Brazil’s AI opportunity, the Series B funding gap, FIDCs and venture debt, and what Cashea signals about Venezuela’s next chapter. Partners: Huge thank you to our partners: ⁠iFood Beneficios ⁠⁠Jeeves⁠Subscribe to ⁠⁠⁠The J Curve Insider⁠⁠⁠ newsletter for deeper insights and follow Olga on ⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠.

Nigel Morris is Co-Founder and Managing Partner of QED Investors and co-founder of Capital One — the company that fundamentally changed consumer banking by pioneering a data-driven approach built around experimentation, risk-based pricing and the idea that virtually every decision in banking could be tested. Nigel later co-founded QED Investors, a global venture capital firm specializing in financial services that has backed more than 200 companies, including Nubank, Remitly, Credit Karma, Flywire, Creditas and Bitso.In this episode, Nigel shares the operating principles behind Capital One and how he brought them into QED’s “full 90 minutes” approach to venture, the story of meeting David Vélez before Nubank existed — when David told him he wanted to build a “Capital One in Brazil” — and what he saw in David that made him believe. We discuss whether Nubank can win in the U.S. and why Nigel believes America is now the biggest prize for Nubank, Revolut, Klarna and Monzo, the biggest mistakes fintechs make when expanding internationally, his “Galapagos Effect” for why incumbent banks remain structurally bad at innovation, what has fundamentally changed in Latin American fintech, the hangover from 2021 venture excesses, and why today’s market is so “intoxicated” by AI that even companies growing 40% with great unit economics can struggle to raise growth capital without an AI or stablecoin story.Partners: Huge thank you to our partners: iFood Beneficios JeevesSubscribe to ⁠⁠The J Curve Insider⁠⁠ newsletter for deeper insights and follow Olga on ⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠.

AI isn't changing media. It's changing what a media company is.For years, creators monetized through sponsorships, advertising and subscriptions. Today, the most successful creators look more like startup founders than entertainers—building software, venture funds, holding companies and entirely new businesses.In this solo episode, Olga argues that the unit of value has changed. Content is no longer the product. Ideas are.We explore:• Why the biggest creators increasingly resemble venture-backed companies• Why AI transforms one conversation into an entire content ecosystem• Why "repurposing" is becoming an outdated concept• Why judgment—not content creation—becomes the scarce resource in the AI era• Why Google partnered with Alex Cooper instead of another advertising agency• What Steven Bartlett's business model reveals about the future of creator companies• Why venture firms like a16z and Lightspeed are investing in media as a competitive advantage• Why every company—from startups to private equity firms—may eventually need a media armIf content becomes infinitely abundant, what becomes valuable instead?Subscribe to ⁠The J Curve Insider⁠ newsletter for deeper insights and follow Olga on ⁠LinkedIn⁠ and ⁠Instagram⁠.

How would you invest a fresh $500 million across public markets, private AI, venture capital, secondaries and Latin America?Valor Capital Managing Partner Paulo Passoni reveals how he would build the portfolio today—including why he would put just 15% into public markets and where he sees overlooked opportunities in LatAm growth.In this episode of TJC Debrief, Paulo joins Olga Maslikhova to discuss:• Why global AI mega-rounds are creating attractive valuations in Latin America• The LatAm businesses he is watching, including CloudWalk, Plata, QI Tech, iFood and Motu• Why AI orchestrators such as Perplexity and Higgsfield could capture more value than expected• The capital-intensity problem hiding behind AI gross margins• Why distribution—not the underlying model—could become AI’s strongest moat• How CloudWalk could evolve from a Brazilian fintech into a global AI company• Why SpaceX could become the defining test for private-market secondaries• Tether’s extraordinary economics and the future of stablecoin payments• What missing Anthropic and OpenAI taught Paulo about investment decisions and sunk costsThis is TJC Debrief—a monthly conversation decoding the most important developments across technology, venture capital, Latin America and global markets.Subscribe to The J Curve Insider newsletter for deeper insights and follow Olga on LinkedIn and Instagram.

Brian Requarth is Founder and General Partner at Latitud — a Silicon Valley-based venture fund and platform that leads pre-seed checks into the top 1% of Latin American founders building global companies. Brian previously co-founded VivaReal, which merged with ZAP Imóveis in 2017 to form Grupo ZAP — later acquired by OLX Brazil for approximately $640M in 2020. Latitud's fellowship has accepted just 1% of 1,500+ annual applicants — harder than the Ivy League — and its 1,000+ alumni have collectively raised over $1B in venture capital. Portfolio companies include Pomelo, StarkBank, and Hyperplane (acquired by Nubank).In this episode, Brian shares why the share of LatAm founders building globally from day one has jumped from 3% to 46% in five years, and what's actually driving the shift. We cover what Founders Fund, Benchmark, Sequoia, Index, and Green Oaks are now underwriting in LatAm — and why the bet is increasingly on the founder profile, not the market, what Brian calls "minus one to zero" investing (versus Thiel's zero-to-one) and why Latitud writes checks before there's even a deck, the ELO-style algorithmic scoring system Latitud built — inspired by chess and tennis ratings — to filter 1,500 applications down to 50, why velocity of learning is the single most important variable he looks for in a founder, and why "if I get to move twice for every one of your moves, I can beat a grandmaster," the anatomy of a great early-stage fundraising round — sharpening the ax, calendar density, signal collection from named angels, and reverse-engineering investor psychology, why "síndrome de vira-lata" (the underdog mindset) is the biggest internal blocker for LatAm founders and how Bay Area exposure rewires it, the new wave of LatAm founders Brian is most excited about — including Mateus at Enter AI, Felipe and Yuri at Camu, and Thais at Taste building taste infrastructure for the AI labs, why Latitud built its entire community on a give-first mentality — starting with 150 Zoom calls during COVID and the $300K Facebook message that once saved VivaReal, why he believes the AI super cycle plus the mindset shift is the most important convergence in LatAm tech right now, and the one piece of advice he would pass to the next generation of Latin American founders.Subscribe to The J Curve Insider newsletter for deeper insights and follow Olga on LinkedIn and Instagram.