Talking Markets with Franklin Templeton

In this episode of Talking Markets, Jeff Schulze, Head Investment Strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, walks us through the latest Recession Risk Dashboard reading. Eleven of 12 indicators are currently green, putting recession odds at a modest 15%. He also covers September's softer jobs report, why the Fed may take a patient approach with potentially one final hike in December, and the 130-basis-point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, which he believes are driven by real yields, not inflation fears. Jeff also touches opportunities in non-US equities and emerging market bonds after a Fed hiking cycle begins, plus a potential seasonal tailwind following the midterm elections.

Chris Galipeau, Head Market Strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, recounts his 2025 thesis that equity leadership would broaden beyond the Magnificent Seven. With the thesis now delivered, he unpacks the earnings-driven case for small caps, equal-weight indices, and international markets—and cautions that a more volatile, demanding phase lies ahead. He also explains why investors should prepare for near-term volatility but stay ready to put capital to work on pullbacks.

Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, tells us that the US economy is holding firm, with recession risk at just 20%, a strengthening labor market, and resilient consumer spending. He goes on to discuss stronger-than-expected earnings, the AI capex surge, a genuine industrial cycle, and what a new Fed Chair means for markets.

Description (used on blogs & websites):In this episode of Talking Markets with Franklin Templeton, host John Przygocki sits down with Chris Galipeau, Head Market Strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, and Putnam Investments portfolio managers Andy O'Brien and Bobby Gray to explore artificial intelligence through the lens of professional investors. What's driving the urgency behind unprecedented AI capital spending? Will hyperscalers earn a return on their massive investments? How is the infrastructure buildout broadening beyond Nvidia GPUs? The guests also examine emerging use cases across enterprise and consumer markets and debate how early we are in this technological cycle.

Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments explains to host John Przygocki why he maintains a constructive outlook for the US economy, putting the odds of recession in the next 12 months at just 20%. Touching on the potential inflation implications of June's jobs report and falling oil prices, Schulze also examines shifting stock-bond correlations and argues that current S&P 500 valuations, while elevated, are supported by strong earnings. He believes that, while we may see volatility this midterm election year, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive for equities in the second half of 2026.

Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments joins host John Przygocki to discuss US economic resilience amid Middle East energy disruptions. With 11 of 12 of his Recession Risk Dashboard indicators now green, Schulze highlights a strong labor market, durable consumer spending, and a CapEx cycle broadening that extends well beyond AI. He views the economy as mid-cycle, remains constructive on US equities, and sees compelling opportunity in emerging markets.

Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments joins host John Przygocki to assess the health of the US economy. He points to a resilient Q1 GDP reading, strong jobs data and earnings growth in estimating a 30% recession probability. He cites the Jevons paradox to explain why he doesn't fear an AI "job apocalypse." And he remains bullish on US equities despite Middle East uncertainty and inflation worries. 

In this episode of Talking Markets, Franklin Templeton Institute's Chris Galipeau and Royce's Frank Gannon examine the current opportunity in small cap equities. Against a resilient US economic backdrop, they highlight the recent outperformance of small cap equities driven by accelerating earnings growth, attractive valuations, and secular tailwinds such as reshoring, deregulation, and AI adoption. They also discuss the value of including this "forgotten asset class" in investor portfolios now.

Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments joins host John Przygocki to assess recession risks, energy price shocks, market volatility, and investor concerns from AI and labor trends to private credit and market concentration. Schulze also explains why the current "wall of worry" can actually create long-term equity opportunities.

Brian Freiwald of Putnam Investments joins us to discuss the nature of emerging markets and how their behavior differs from the US equity market. He offers his views on the reasons to allocate to emerging markets, including insights on specific companies and the broader opportunity across emerging markets today.