Switched On

Everyone is talking about how much energy data centers and artificial intelligence will gobble up in the coming years. Yet AI is just one part of a vast, complex and constantly evolving energy landscape. So how will the AI revolution fit into a world where electric vehicles are displacing liquid road fuels, renewable-power projects are stuck in grid queues and big tech is investing in nuclear? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Ian Berryman, BloombergNEF’s head of energy systems modeling, to discuss findings from this year’s edition of the New Energy Outlook. For the first time ever, BNEF’s flagship report has modeled the impact of data centers on the transition to a low-carbon economy. But how much of the global power supply will AI really require? And will additional clean energy sources be built to meet that added demand, or could the extra grid strain simply extend the lifespan of fossil-fuel generation? Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: New Energy Outlook 2025 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36179 Executive Summary - https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/new-energy-outlook/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sales of electric vehicles are set for another record-breaking year. Thanks to falling battery costs and a rise in affordable models, plug-in EVs will represent a quarter of global passenger car sales in 2025. And while a rollback in government support has taken a bite out of EV uptake in the US, other countries are more than making up for this setback. Chinese automakers have been growing their footprint overseas, leading to strong growth in emerging markets. In China itself, organic consumer demand will lead to 50% of new vehicle sales this year coming with a plug, far surpassing government targets, and strong domestic sales of range-extended EVs have led them to become the fastest-growing drivetrain in the world. On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Colin McKerracher, BloombergNEF’s Head of Clean Transport, to discuss findings from this year’s Electric Vehicle Outlook. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025 - https://www.bnef.com/flagships/ev-outlookSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Trump administration has made no bones about its desire to revitalize the US’s nuclear power industry. With four new executive orders hot off the president’s desk, nuclear is being treated as a silver bullet, capable of meeting AI power demand while shoring up the country’s energy independence. The US is also looking to counter China and Russia, which in recent years have led the way in nuclear technology rollout both at home and abroad. But can this new policy push elicit the market response required to rebuild the US’s nuclear energy industrial base? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by BloombergNEF’s lead nuclear analyst, Chris Gadomski, to discuss findings from his note “Trump Pushes Nuclear But Market Pull Is Uncertain.” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Trump Pushes Nuclear But Market Pull Is Uncertain - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36697See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Solar module prices have been cratering in recent years, dragged down by global oversupply. Yet while this glut of photovoltaics has hammered manufacturer profits, it has also allowed emerging economies that are hungry for affordable energy to get into the solar game, and demand growth is still strong this year. So what lies ahead for this notoriously tricky market, could energy storage help mitigate electricity price spikes, and what impact could the Trump administration’s tariffs have on domestic US solar manufacturing? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Jenny Chase, a BloombergNEF solar specialist, to discuss findings from her note “2Q 2025 Global PV Market Outlook.” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: 2Q 2025 Global PV Market Outlook - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36693See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The oil and gas sector invested $33.4 billion in the energy transition last year. Yet while this figure suggests that decarbonization is a serious consideration for some fossil-fuel majors, just seven companies accounted for 85% of the sector’s low-carbon spend in 2024, and only 13 of 41 companies assessed raised low-carbon investment as a share of capex. So what are the different strategies oil and gas companies are pursuing when it comes to the energy transition? And why would a fossil-fuel company invest in clean tech in the first place? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Claudio Lubis, an associate from BNEF’s downstream oil and chemicals team, to discuss findings from his note “Oil and Gas Energy Transition 2024: Clean Capex Jumps.” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transitions to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Oil and Gas Energy Transition 2024: Clean Capex Jumps - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36589See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Europe is making quick work of executing large industrial decarbonization infrastructure projects. The continent now boasts large-scale facilities for carbon capture, storage and transit in the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, Italy and Norway. But how have policymakers managed to incentivize and facilitate the installation of these massive projects, and what’s required to push the sector even further? At the 2025 BloombergNEF Summit Munich, Martin Tengler, BNEF’s head of hydrogen research, moderated a panel titled “Getting Industrial Decarbonization Megaprojects on Their Feet: Evaluating Early Success.” This episode brings listeners that panel, which featured Kristin Myskja, director general and head of climate, industry and technology for the Norwegian Ministry of Energy; Anders Hoffman, deputy permanent secretary for the Danish Ministry for Climate, Energy and Utilities; Dick Benschop, chair of the board at Mission Possible Partnership; and Stefanie Hiesinger, head of unit for low-carbon solutions for Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) at the European Commission. To learn more about BNEF’s Summits taking place around the world and to see recordings of BNEF Talks at previous Summits, head to https://about.bnef.com/summit/.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Extreme weather has always meant extreme risks for businesses and investors. Yet climate change has varied the calculus, and many businesses are facing new, potentially existential risks as the world and the energy transition heat up. As such, central banks and financial supervisors have begun conducting climate risk stress tests, to ensure these institutions are capable of mitigating the potential impacts of a changing climate. But what do these tests entail, which markets have been the most proactive in conducting them, and what exactly is “climate risk” anyway? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Tifenn Brandily, BloombergNEF’s head of transition risk and alignment, and special guest Edo Schets, Bloomberg’s head of climate, nature and regulatory financial solutions, to discuss findings from the note “Climate Risk Stress Test Review”. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transitions to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Climate Risk Stress Test Review - https://www.bnef.com/insights/35901 TRACT - https://www.bnef.com/insights/34869 Worksheet Sample Library for Physical Risk - WSL PHYSICALRISK<GO> Worksheet Sample Library for Water - WSL WATER<GO>See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A United Nations-led aviation decarbonization scheme could offer some respite for carbon credit markets mired in controversy. With the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, also known as CORSIA, the UN is looking to offer legitimacy for carbon credits, to help tackle emissions at scale. The scheme has a global footprint, with a roster of 126 markets set to expand to 135 in 2027, but with the US and EU threatening to pull their involvement, just how impactful can CORSIA really be? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Layla Khanfar, an associate on BNEF’s environmental markets team, to discuss her recent note “Aviation Credits Market Outlook: CORSIA Gets Its Wings”. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Aviation Credits Market Outlook: CORSIA Gets Its Wings - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36451See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The rise of AI data centers is reshaping the outlook for US power markets. Forecast to account for nearly a 10th of all US electricity demand by 2035, data centers are gobbling up power more quickly than electric vehicles, hydrogen or any other demand class this decade. A profound concentration of capital has allowed for this rapid expansion, which is now exerting influence over energy infrastructure and planning investment. But what forms do data centers take, and what are the factors and strategies that influence associated decision making? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of US Power, Helen Kou, and Senior Associate Nathalie Limandibhratha to discuss their recent note “US Data Center Market Outlook: The Age of AI”. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: US Data Center Market Outlook: The Age of AI - https://www.bnef.com/insights/36281See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Clean energy investment in the US grew $50 billion last year. With interest rates easing and inflation in decline, the market appears to be well positioned to meet skyrocketing power demand from sources like artificial intelligence and data centers. Yet it’s not all smooth sailing: price cannibalization, curtailment risks, tariffs and clean energy policy shifts from the new Trump administration all present challenges for investors. So what business models and strategies are required to keep the momentum going? At the 2025 BloombergNEF Summit New York, Pol Lezcano, a senior associate from BNEF’s solar team, moderated a panel titled “Sustaining Momentum in US Renewable Investments.” This episode brings listeners that panel, which featured Andrew Gongaware, managing director at BMO Capital Markets; Matt Ransweiler, senior vice president for finance and capital markets at Invenergy; Miguel Pena, managing director and head of project finance for the Americas at BBVA; and Corinne Still, partner at Apollo Global Management. To learn more about BNEF’s Summits taking place around the world and to see recordings of BNEF Talks at previous Summits, head to https://about.bnef.com/summit/.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.