Has Russia Won the Sanctions War?

Welcome back to the Ties That Bind.This week, we go even further north, to Finland, one of the alliance’s newest members. Like the other frontline states we’ve visited this season, Finland shares a turbulent and complicated history with Russia that has long molded its security and foreign policy. But unlike the other frontline states, it was not a member of NATO at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. February 24, 2022, proved to be a lynchpin moment for how Finnish society viewed its security and its future.In this episode, we’ll hear from two Finnish experts about that moment in time, both culturally and politically, about the process and challenges of Finland’s NATO accession, the country’s strategic role in the Arctic, and what it means for the alliance. We’ll also hear about Finland’s whole-of-society defense model, how the country’s culture has informed its security calculus, and what other allies can learn from the Finnish experience. And we’ll also discuss lessons for Finland’s history for Ukraine.Featured Guests:* Minna Ålander is an Associate Fellow at Chatham House and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.* Joel Linnainmäki is a Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and a former special advisor to the former Foreign Minister, Pekka Haavisto.Listen the previous episode on Latvia here. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

We have spent a lot of time talking about Combat Collaborative Aircraft, or CCA. On this episode, Aaron sat down with Billy Byrne, the Director of Strategy for Defense at Saildrone. The two talked about the future of unmanned naval systems, the lessons learned from Ukraine’s operations in the Black Sea, the challenges of operating in the Indo-Pacific, and the need to have both endurance and to “pack a punch” in naval combat.Explore more from Behind the Front here. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the Ties That Bind.This week, we go back North to the shores of the Baltic Sea for the perspective from Latvia.In this episode, we’ll hear from three Latvian experts on the evolution of the country’s defense posture, NATO cooperation, and its response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We’ll also hear about what’s happening on the domestic front, with the evolution of national and municipal civilian defense programs, Latvia’s infrastructure investments, and how the country’s public sector is thinking about resilience and building trust in a whole-of-society defense approach.Featured Guests: * Māris Andžāns is the Director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies Riga and an associate professor at Rīga Stradiņš University.* Ieva Berzina is a Senior Researcher at the Center for Security and Strategic Studies, National Academy of Defense of the Republic of Latvia, and an associate professor at Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences.* Linda Ozola is a Councilor of the Riga City Council, and former Deputy Mayor of Riga (2020-2025).Listen to the previous episode Lessons in History and Communications from NATO’s Principal Spokesperson here. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the Ties That Bind. This week, we are looking further south along NATO’s eastern flank at Romania.Romania has long advocated for increased NATO and US presence in the Black Sea. Since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the importance of the Black Sea and Romania’s role have been reflected in an increased NATO presence and multiple defense and infrastructure investments. The country has been a critical actor in helping the Ukrainian war effort, serving as a logistics and military training hub, and securing Ukrainian grain exports in the first years of the war.In this episode, we’ll hear from three Romanian experts about the country’s role in NATO and Black Sea security, its defense investments, and plans to address strategic infrastructure challenges that have far-reaching significance for the alliance. We’ll also hear about what’s happening on the domestic front, notably the long-term repercussions of the annulled 2024 presidential election. While public opinion shows high support for NATO, Romania and its neighbors continue to be targeted by long-term Russian influence campaigns, and we’ll hear how these are affecting social attitudes towards NATO and Western institutions.Featured guests: * Antonia Colibasanu, Senior Analyst, Geopolitical Futures, FPRI Senior Fellow* Eusebiu Slavitescu, European defense analyst, former Romanian MFA* Alina Bargaoanu, Communications expert, University of Political Studies and Public Administration, BucharestListen to the previous episode on Poland in NATO here. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In a rapidly evolving world where Washington might not have the same sway it used to, how should the US best position itself? Who are the “schools” or “camps” contesting the direction of foreign policy. In this episode of The Continent, Emma Ashford joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to talk about American grand strategy and her recent book First Among Equals: US Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the Ties That Bind.This season, we are looking at NATO from a bit of a different vantage point, specifically that of the frontline states. How are frontline states investing in and planning for their defense? How are they thinking about their role and contributions in the Alliance and on the world stage? How have their historical experiences shaped how their governments and societies think about defense, countering disinformation, and changing economic realities? And how are they preparing for a potential conflict with Russia? This week, we are looking at Poland, a country that has completely transformed its military and defense capacity over the last two decades. Periods of transition are not always painless, and we’ll hear what challenges Poland has faced and what opportunities lie ahead as it looks to become a leading voice within the alliance and on the world stage.Featured guests: * Anna Fotyga, former Polish Foreign Minister, 2006-2007* Tomasz Szatkowski, former Deputy Defense Minister, 2015-2019, and Ambassador to NATO, 2019-2024* Jakub Romaniuk, Programme Director, Foundation Institute for Eastern Studies Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Introducing our new monthly podcast series, Behind the Front, which features conversations with industry experts on challenges and opportunities facing the technology, space, and national security sectors. This week Aaron Stein sat down with Scott “FUG” Gilloon, who currently serves as the Sector Vice President of Air Force Strategic Development and Capability Assessments at General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. The two talked about General Atomics’ CCA, its origin story, how these aircraft may be used in combat, and what the future of air combat may entail. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

A flurry of back-and-forth diplomacy, a renewed Russian offensive, and a rare outburst of protest in Ukraine. The Kyiv Dispatch with Aaron Schwartzbaum and Fabrice Deprez returns to break down what's actually happening and most importantly, how people on the ground are feeling about it.For more reporting and stories from Ukraine, be sure to follow Fabrice’s newsletter, Eastern Radar. Explore more from the Bear Market Brief. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Are drones the future of war? What lessons can be learned from Ukraine for the Taiwan contingency? To discuss these topics and more, FPRI President Aaron Stein sat down with Lorenz Meier, CEO of Auterion, to discuss drones and the future of war. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Why does Russia play such an important role in geopolitics? If it's because of 'strength'... what does strength even mean? And why do conceptions of Russia's strength vary so extremely? Seva Gunitsky joins Aaron Schwartzbaum on this week’s Bear Market Brief podcast.Related ReadingRussia is both weak and strong - that's the problem by Seva Gunitsky Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe