What we're expecting

For the next 90 days, the two countries will temporarily ease tariffs on each other’s goods as trade talks continue. But what does this deal mean for the broader economy? Marketplace's Kai Ryssdal sits down with Adam Posen from the Peterson Institute for International Economics to discuss the damage that's already been done. Also on the show, how soybean farmers feel about the latest trade deal and why Chinese manufacturers are trying to reach American consumers via TikTok.

This week, the Federal Reserve opted to leave short-term interest rates alone, despite concerns about the rising risks of a weakening U.S. economy. In this episode, we speak with Sudeep Reddy of Politico and Courtenay Brown of Axios about the Fed's latest decision and the current state of trade negotiations. Plus, why NOAA is retiring its billion-dollar disaster database and how New York City is moving to decarbonize its pension fund.

The latest consumer expectations report is out and Americans are feeling much worse about their own personal financial situations than they were in March. Their inflation expectations though, haven’t budged much. In this episode, we look at why that might be — and whether these surveys correlate to economic reality. Plus: tariffs dampen hobby splurgers’ spirits, labor productivity drops and we nibble on the U.S.-U.K. trade deal. 

As tariff pressures mount, China’s vice president and other leaders have agreed to meet with top U.S. officials. If history is any guide, substantial change to the tense trade relationship between the two countries will take time. So what’s urgent enough to discuss this week? Plus, some big companies issue more Eurobonds, small businesses tread lightly when discussing the trade war and “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal explains the latest Fed decision. 

The U.S. trade deficit hit a record high in March, as businesses rushed to bring in goods ahead of new import taxes. Now that President Trump’s tariffs on goods from China have set in and globally targeted tariffs are set to resume in July, what happens to the trade deficit? Plus: Lab-grown diamonds disrupt a centuries-old industry, a few big companies are back in the bond market and how the trade war could disrupt retirement plans. 

Oil companies are barely breaking even on crude oil right now — a barrel of West Texas Intermediate started Monday at a paltry $58. If prices stay low, firms will have a choice to make: invest in new production, or pay investors dividends. Plus, the services sector expanded but remains wary of tariffs, health care hiring may not weather major cuts to Medicaid and we visit an electric vehicle showcase in Shanghai. 

It’s been one month since President Trump raised tariffs on goods from China. Already, the global supply chain is struggling. In this episode, we’ll hear about plummeting container ship traffic to the U.S. and how small retailers are dealing with limited stock. Plus, how the drayage sector is faring and what all these tariff negotiations will mean for the global economy going forward. 

An upward climb in labor productivity has been a promising economic trend over the past few years. That’s important because productivity drives overall economic growth. But President Trump’s trade war, which is causing many businesses big and small to hold off on major investments, could cause that productivity to stagnate. Also in this episode: Coca-Cola reports stronger-than-expected earnings, the GOP wants EV owners to pay for road maintenance costs usually covered by a gas tax and the Sunbelt housing market turns lukewarm. 

The latest GDP calculations and PCE index tell us the U.S. economy is doing … OK. Importantly, the data doesn’t point to stagflation. But the data was collected from January through March 2025, and at this point, March is old news. Also in this episode: American companies ramp up their spending on computers, Nike’s struggle to move sneaker manufacturing out of Asia is a cautionary tale and Texas becomes the biggest state to send public dollars to private schools through school choice vouchers.

When new gross domestic product data comes out tomorrow, economists expect we'll see the first GDP contraction in three years. But the report is backward-looking, so if the GDP did shrink, it will be thanks to tariff-related anxiety in the first quarter, rather than actual tariff implementation that kicked off in April. Also in this episode, some workforce stories: Why hiring more FAA air traffic controllers won’t be easy, a worker navigates Wyoming’s trona mining industry and a bathtub helps us understand the labor market differential.