Russia's strategy of cognitive dissonance & what will Putin & NATO do next?

In this podcast, we explore whether it's possible to augment stability and safeguard freedom in liberal democracies amidst rapid socio-political changes and growing extremism across the ideological spectrum. We assess the shifting dynamics within developed democracies of the Euro-Atlantic space, where increasing activism at both ends of the political spectrum complicates the search for a moderate political middle. The discussion delves into the complexities and unprecedented pace of social and political changes, examining their implications for governance amidst significant policy challenges, such as digital and environmental transformations, cultural debates, and migration issues. Additionally, we consider the effects of polarization, opportunism, and populism on effective governance, exploring whether this seeming disorder can be managed or even reversed, and what strategies might stabilize these trends in the short and long term.Guests:Hans Pung, President of RAND EuropeHans Pung is President of RAND Europe, a not-for-profit public policy research organization that helps improve policy and decision-making through research and analysis. Pung joined RAND as a policy analyst in 2002 and continues to lead and deliver research projects, particularly around industrial economics and security policy issues. Before joining RAND, Pung served as an engineer officer in the United States Army with responsibility for logistics, personnel, and operations and overseas service in the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Germany. His recent projects include Cost Modeling and Skills Analysis, European Defense Industrial Base Analysis, Future UK Military Capability Requirements, Improving Counter-Violent Extremism Intervention.Nestor Maslej, AI Index Research Manager, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AINestor Maslej is a Research Associate at Stanford’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI). In this position, he uses a combination of quantitative and qualitative methodologies to conduct research for the AI Index and Global AI Vibrancy Tool. Nestor also leads research projects that study AI in the context of technical advancement, ethical concerns and policymaking. In developing tools that track the advancement of AI, Nestor hopes to make the AI space more accessible to both policymakers and citizens. His work is also oriented towards building knowledge about AI in a way that facilitates more productive dialogues surrounding its future and can lead to its development in ethically responsible ways. Prior to joining HAI, Nestor worked in Toronto as an analyst in several startups.Elizabeth Nelson, Co-Founder, Head of Innovation & Content Smart Building CollectiveThe author of The Healthy Office Revolution, Elizabeth C. Nelson is a researcher, writer, and Co-Founder of the Smart Building Collective | Certification. She stands on the review board for Academic publications including Nature's Digital Medicine, Journal of Medical Internet Research (JMIR), and Plos One. Her PhD in biomedical engineering focuses on our complex relationship with technology and a better way of living and working. Supported by: International Visegrad FundIf you want better insights into challenges and decisions you or your business are facing, GARI’s analytical services are of unmatched complexity and high accuracy - whether your questions are on the green energy transition, trade and supply chains, or political and security related - contact us for a free consultation and see how you can optimise your decision-making.www.globari.org@LinkedIn @GARInstitute) / Twitter

In this episode, we discuss navigating the dualities of the digital economy amidst rising entropy and the unexpected effects of regulations. Staying a tech optimist can feel challenging. The past decade of rapid digitalization has improved interactions between citizens and governments, amplified marginalized voices, and increased social and economic interconnectedness. However, these benefits aren't equally distributed. Issues like data commodification, privacy concerns, and societal pathologies from constant smartphone use have permeated societies, possibly irreversibly. The increase in societal entropy leads to disorder and uncertainty, impacting different groups unevenly. As a result, policies and regulations often struggle to succeed and may have unintended consequences, potentially fueling the erosion of democratic societies.Guests:Sebastian HallenslebenHead of Digitalisation and AI; Head of Strategic Technology Area "Digital Trust", VDE | Co-Chair, OECD ONE AI; UNESCO AI Ethics implementation expert groupDr. Sebastian Hallensleben, Chair of CEN-CENELEC JTC 21 shaping European AI standards for EU regulation, also contributes to the EU StandICT program and leads the Trusted Information working group. He co-chairs OECD ONE.AI's classification and risk assessment group and holds roles in AI committees at IEC, Council of Europe, and UNESCO. Additionally, he heads Digitalisation and AI at VDE, overseeing new product/service development and providing guidance to the German parliament, federal ministries, and the European Commission. His focus includes AI ethics, generative AI impact, privacy-preserving trust infrastructures, and AI quality characterization. Previously, he facilitated dialogues between academia, industry, and policymaking and worked on international infrastructure projects. With a PhD in physics, he began his career in IT development and solutions architecture in the financial and telecom sectors. He holds an undergraduate degree in physics from the University of Tübingen and both his MSc and PhD degrees in physics are from the Unviersity of Sussexs.Tony Curzon PriceEconomic regulation, strategy, energy, net zero, antitrust, tech regulation, former sr advisor to UK PMTony Curzon Price Sits on the board of Ofgem, the UK's energy regulator with responsibility for achieving Net Zero. He has worked in Number 10, the Cabinet Office, the department of Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy and in the UK's antitrust authority. Before his civil service career, he founded Arithmatica, a silicon valley chip design company, and spent 5 years building the company in the Bay Area; he was editor-in-chief of the UK political website openDemocracy, where transformed openDemocracy into a not-for-profit editors’ cooperative for comment, analysis and investigation. He wrote his PhD on game theory and market design with Ken Binmore at UCL.Supported by: International Visegrad FundInternational Visegrad FundEstablished by the governments of the Visegrad Group countries to promote regional cooperation.Disclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.If you want better insights into challenges and decisions you or your business are facing, GARI’s analytical services are of unmatched complexity and high accuracy - whether your questions are on the green energy transition, trade and supply chains, or political and security related - contact us for a free consultation and see how you can optimise your decision-making.www.globari.org@LinkedIn @GARInstitute) / Twitter

Trade Realities: European Uncertain Autonomy and Global Geoeconomics  - N100 2024 BerlinThis discussion explored the implications of Europe's quest for resiliency and selective autonomy on its global trade relationships, regional economic stability, and overall competitiveness in an uncertain global environment. The debate dissected the state of global trade, examining the precarious balance between maintaining open commercial flows and responding to increasing geopolitical pressures. It analyzed the mixed outcomes of Europe's strategic shifts towards greater economic sovereignty, highlighting the challenges posed by external dependencies, particularly with China and the U.S., and the internal disparities among how EU regions were vulnerable to these shifts. The discussion addressed Europe's vulnerabilities and opportunities in technology and production, the broader impact of protectionist trends on global trade architectures, incorporating also the business and supply chain perspectives. With the evolving landscape of globalization—marked by cautious engagement and selective isolation—the panel explored viable strategies for Europe to navigate these dilemmas, ensuring resilience in a fragmenting global economy.Speakers:Donna Avellana KünzlerHead of Procurement Process Excellence & Digital Transformation, ABBDonna Avellana Künzler is currently the Head of Procurement Process Excellence & Digital Transformation for ABB’s Robotics and Discrete Automation in Zurich, Switzerland. With 25 years of experience, she excels in international program/project management, business and IT process reengineering, risk and controls, and global system implementations.As an award-winning author, Künzler's book, "The Overseas Fabulous Pinay," published in March 2020, has earned accolades, including the Best Independent Book Award (BIBA) 2021 for Nonfiction: Travel-Living Abroad.Michal Koran, Founder of the Global Arena Research InstituteMichal Kořan, President & Founder of the Global Arena Research Institute and Assistant Professor at Masaryk University, holds a Ph.D. in Social Sciences. His expertise spans globalization, technology, global politics, security, foreign policy, theories of International Relations, and philosophy of science, with a focus on applied complex data science, data-driven forecasting, and risk assessment. He explores the interplay between (de)globalizing forces, supply chains, commodities, energy, security, and their social impacts, integrating neuroscientific research into understanding complex societal behaviour. Next 100 SymposiumThe Next 100 Symposium, organized by the Global Arena Research Institute, has brought together leaders and experts across various disciplines to discuss global challenges since 2018.Supported by: International Visegrad FundInternational Visegrad FundEstablished by the governments of the Visegrad Group countries to promote regional cooperation.Disclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.If you want better insights into challenges and decisions you or your business are facing, GARI’s analytical services are of unmatched complexity and high accuracy - whether your questions are on the green energy transition, trade and supply chains, or political and security related - contact us for a free consultation and see how you can optimise your decision-making.www.globari.org@LinkedIn @GARInstitute) / Twitter

Fusion energy, at the cutting edge of scientific advancement, offers a promising yet challenging path to sustainable power. Recent breakthroughs in magnetic confinement and laser-driven inertial fusion have moved us closer to net energy gain. However, significant obstacles remain in scaling stable fusion reactions for commercial use, requiring substantial investments and stringent safety regulations. Despite these hurdles, the potential for fusion energy to provide a nearly inexhaustible, low-carbon source of power continues to drive global research. Looking ahead, the focus will be on improving reactor efficiency and addressing material science challenges, maintaining a realistic yet optimistic outlook on fusion's role in future energy solutions.Gauss Fusion is a Greentech venture founded in 2022 by private industrial companies. The company brings together a combination of cutting-edge scientific research and industrial expertise on fusion energy that is unique in Europe. The founding companies from Germany, France, Italy and Spain have extensive expertise in fusion technology. In addition, Gauss Fusion cooperates with leading European research institutes. These include, among others: CERN, the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (IPP), the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), and ENEA in Italy. With this impressive knowledge base from industry and academia, and through strategic public-private partnerships, Gauss Fusion is pursuing the goal of bringing renewable fusion energy to market at high-speed using efficient structures, and represents an entrepreneurial approach that aims to significantly accelerate development through public-private partnerships (PPP).https://gauss-fusion.comMilena Roveda, Chief Executive Officer, Gauss Fusion, InnovatorHer previous roles include the Chief Financial Officer of DEPT (2021-2022) and IFS (2018-2019) and Chief Operating Officer of MotorK(2019-2020). Roveda has over 25 years of international experience leading teams in developing and expanding businesses and extensive know-how in designing and executing corporate strategies.The Next 100 Symposium, a Global Arena Research Institute conference, brings together leaders and experts across various disciplines. True to the original ethos of the Next 100, we reject the notion of deepening disorder, mistrust, and polarization as the "new normal." The 2024 Berlin edition aims to identify realistic, actionable paths forward, particularly in the context of the upcoming European parliamentary elections and the upcoming European Commission.International Visegrad FundEstablished by the governments of the Visegrad Group countries to promote regional cooperation.Disclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.If you want better insights into challenges and decisions you or your business are facing, GARI’s analytical services are of unmatched complexity and high accuracy - whether your questions are on the green energy transition, trade and supply chains, or political and security related - contact us for a free consultation and see how you can optimise your decision-making.www.globari.org@LinkedIn @GARInstitute) / Twitter

Big Global Energy Question - N100 2024 BerlinThis session provides a holistic overview of crucial trends and strategic realignments in global energy, emphasizing both a scientifically informed understanding and the practical aspect of crafting future policies.This stage debate addresses the critical trends shaping global energy futures, strategies, and policies with a focus on adapting to the demands of climate change and sustainable transitions. The session will serve as a prism for evaluating the effectiveness of decarbonization policies through the lens of environmental, economic, and social impacts while integrating perspectives from physics to explore foundational principles affecting energy systems. It will also highlight transformative innovations in energy technologies and how these can redefine the landscape of knowns and unknowns in energy futuresSpeakersFrederick Bordry, CTO of Gauss Fusion | Former Director of Technology, CERNLenka Kovačovská, LK Energy Consulting, Former Deputy Minister responsible for energy, CZMirek Topolánek, Former Prime Minister of the Czech Republic & President of the European CouncilTony Curzon Price, Economic regulation, strategy, energy, net zero, antitrust, tech regulation, former sr advisor to UK PMNext 100 SymposiumThe Next 100 Symposium, a conference by the Global Arena Research Institute, bringing together leaders and experts across various disciplines, has served as a platform for fostering open discussion on global challenges since its inception. The inaugural Next 100 Symposium in the fall of 2018 commemorated the centenary of the First World War's end. Inspired by a spirit of rebuilding trust and stability from the ruins of post-war Europe, we sought to shift from crisis-driven language, exploring how science, technology, and open, cross-disciplinary dialogue could transcend the darkening global horizons. The past six years did not offer much optimism in this regard. The COVID-19 pandemic acted as a global accelerator, exacerbating underlying social, economic, and political issues, while also introducing many new ones. True to the original ethos of the Next 100, we reject the notion of deepening disorder, mistrust, and polarization as the "new normal." The 2024 Berlin edition aims to identify realistic, actionable paths forward, particularly in the context of the upcoming European parliamentary elections and the upcoming European Commission.https://www.next100symposium.org/Supported by: International Visegrad FundInternational Visegrad FundEstablished by the governments of the Visegrad Group countries to promote regional cooperation.Disclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.If you want better insights into challenges and decisions you or your business are facing, GARI’s analytical services are of unmatched complexity and high accuracy - whether your questions are on the green energy transition, trade and supply chains, or political and security related - contact us for a free consultation and see how you can optimise your decision-making.www.globari.org@LinkedIn @GARInstitute) / Twitter

Underestimating AI's long-term impact - the 21st century's industrial revolutionIn this episode, we delve into the transformative world of AI, discussing how it's become the Industrial Revolution of the 21st century. Nowcasting: the high-resolution forecasting of rain up to two hours ahead, the generative model that ranked first for its accuracy and usefulness, Alphafold, which can accurately predict 3D models of protein structures and is accelerating research in nearly every field of biology and AlphaMissence which analyzes the effects of DNA mutations and will accelerate research into rare diseases.HANGAR: UN General Assembly & AI's Global Prominence:We kick things off at the United Nations General Assembly, where a new $5 billion commitment signifies AI's top-of-mind status this year, reminiscent of the previous year's focus on climate change. We explore how AI can support the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and its current role in "nowcasting."Risks and Governance in the AI Era:We dissect the risks of AI at both national and global levels and the need for a high-level advisory body on AI. The 2024 Summit of the Futures and the delicate balance between creating AI guardrails without stifling innovation come under scrutiny.EU Regulation and the Challenge of Risk Assessment:We examine EU regulations on high-risk AI systems and the complexities of scaling AI's risk in the face of rapid technological development. We ponder the necessity of taking risks for fundamental research in the era of "Grey-zone AI development."AlphaFold's Impact and the Global AI Race:AlphaFold's groundbreaking work in protein folding prediction is spotlighted. We discuss the ongoing global AI race, emphasizing the need for regulation, commercialization, brain drain, and education. We ask if the EU should replicate the US model with research centers or "lighthouses."US and UK Perspectives on AI Governance:We explore the chances of AI bills passing in the US and hear UK Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Downton's perspective on the unique nature of AI governance. We dive into AI's potential for advancing science, particularly in the medical field.Amara's Law and the Long-Term Impact of AI:We introduce Amara's Law and its relevance to our current AI hype. Are we underestimating what AI will achieve in the coming decade? We reflect on the most exciting aspects of working for DeepMind and the prevailing philosophy in AI today.AI Overhype and Focusing on Key Concerns:We address the overhype surrounding AI, drawing parallels with the start of the Industrial Revolution when people couldn't foresee the transformation ahead. We emphasize the challenge of maintaining focus amid the noise.Fairness, Equity, and the Global Digital Compact:Diversity and equity in AI development are discussed in-depth. How can AI be equitable when its developers largely come from a specific demographic? We introduce the concept of the Global Digital Compact.Favourite AI Tools and a Glimpse into the FutureSupported by: International Visegrad FundIf you want better insights into challenges and decisions you or your business are facing, GARI’s analytical services are of unmatched complexity and high accuracy - whether your questions are on the green energy transition, trade and supply chains, or political and security related - contact us for a free consultation and see how you can optimise your decision-making.www.globari.org@LinkedIn @GARInstitute) / Twitter

Theresa Kushner's journey in the world of high technology serves as an inspiration to aspiring professionals. From her early days in the field of journalism to her influential roles in renowned companies she is a true data-vangelist. Theresa graduated from the Mayborn School of Journalism at the University of North Texas. Over the course of her career, Theresa has held prominent positions in several industry-leading companies. She has showcased her expertise and leadership abilities in organizations such as IBM, Cisco Systems, VMware, Dell/EMC, and NTT DATA,  helping these companies use the value they have in their data.  Today Theresa has co-founded the company Business Data Leadership with Maria Villar, focusing on leadership, advising, and consulting in the realm of data analytics. Theresa has made significant contributions to the literature on data and its application in business. She co-authored two notable books: "Managing Your Business Data: From Chaos to Confidence" in collaboration with Maria Villar, and "B2B Data-Driven Marketing: Sources, Uses, Results" co-authored with Ruth Stevens. These publications have been recognized for their valuable insights into leveraging data for improved business outcomes. https://www.linkedin.com/in/theresakushner?original_referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2FIf you want better insights into challenges and decisions you or your business are facing, GARI’s analytical services are of unmatched complexity and high accuracy - whether your questions are on the green energy transition, trade and supply chains, or political and security related - contact us for a free consultation and see how you can optimise your decision-making.www.globari.org@LinkedIn @GARInstitute) / Twitter

Luís de Almeida Sampaio, the Ambassador from Portugal to the Czech Republic, has held numerous posts around the world and has a deep interest in global health care. In this episode he covers the M8 Alliance. With regards to Ukraine, what has been the war's impact on European healthcare? What changes in the discussions when there is a war like this? How do politics and policy impact the global discussion around health care? What are Portugal's involvements in the M8 alliance?What are the significant developments the M8 alliance has contributed to in the last decade?What is the relationship between the M8 alliance and the world health organization?What is going to be the most hot topic at the M8 conference this year?What are the similarities between the Czech Republic and Portugal's economies, and what are the opportunities for synchronization and collaboration? Sampaio began his career studying Law at the Coimbra University, his first diplomatic post was  NATO (1987), eventually becoming ambassador to NATO. Since then the Ambassador has held diplomatic positions in Brussels, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belgrade, Serbia, Germany, and holds the ambassadorial post of Permanent Representative of Portugal in the North Atlantic Council.   If you want better insights into challenges and decisions you or your business are facing, GARI’s analytical services are of unmatched complexity and high accuracy - whether your questions are on the green energy transition, trade and supply chains, or political and security related - contact us for a free consultation and see how you can optimise your decision-making.www.globari.org@LinkedIn @GARInstitute) / Twitter

Bjorn Stevens is the Director of the Max Plank Institute for Meteorology in Berlin - Bjorn is a top climate scientist, with particular expertise in clouds. New climate model simulations of the world - EVE) Earth Virtualisation EnginesHuman vs science-centric climate scienceEarth in 100 yearsDarwin and the theory of e-0volutionIt's also clear that humans are responsible for global warming and not enough is being done if the goal is to stop the warming, whats the scientific consequence of that?What's the difference between 2 and 1,5 degrees of warming?How AI aids people with different backgrounds and knowledge bases to understand the same thingsWhat is Bjorn Stevens’s favourite thing about clouds?Born 1966 in Augsburg. Master of Science Degree in Electrical Engineering, Iowa State University, USA (1990), PhD in Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, USA (1996), Post-Doctoral Fellow with the Advanced Study Program of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, USA (1996 - 1998), Humboldt Fellow at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (1998 - 1999), University of California (UCLA), USA, Department of Atmospheric Sciences: Assistant Professor (1999), Associate Professor (2003), Professor (tenured, 2007), Affiliate Scientist at NCAR (since 2000), Director and Scientific Member at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (since 2008).The Max Planck Society conducts basic research in the natural sciences, life sciences, and humanities. It was founded in 1948 as a successor organisation to the Kaiser Wilhelm Society and has 30 Nobel laureates in its ranks. With its 85 Max Planck Institutes and facilities, it is the international flagship for German science: in addition to institutions outside of Germany, it operates another 20 Max Planck Centers with research institutions such as Princeton University in the USA, the Paris University Science Po in France, the University College London in UK, and the University of Tokyo in Japan. Equally funded by federal and state governments, the University College London in UK, and the University of Tokyo in Japan. Equally funded by federal and state governments, the Max Planck Society had an annual budget of 1.98 billion Euros in 2022.https://www.mpg.de/343990/meteorology-stevenslatestthinking.orgSupported by: International Visegrad FundIf you want better insights into challenges and decisions you or your business are facing, GARI’s analytical services are of unmatched complexity and high accuracy - whether your questions are on the green energy transition, trade and supply chains, or political and security related - contact us for a free consultation and see how you can optimise your decision-making.www.globari.org@LinkedIn @GARInstitute) / Twitter

Henry Ajder, a globally recognised advisor, speaker, and broadcaster working at the frontier of the generative AI and synthetic media revolution. AI-generated deep fakes - their current and future impact, synthetic media How to do news sourcing and verifications and break breaking news as soon as possible? especially when Twitter has become the place for breaking newsAI generated fakes are being used to cause stock market manipulation or to target companies to artificially inflate or attack their stock prices Ethical AI development and use - are there realistic cohesive and multistakeholder dialogues and strategies taking place? Actual well-informed legislation and regulation?Which labour sectors will be most impacted and which won't?We will see increasing social unrest - If people are unhappy with any innovation - people will protestA lot of the jobs that are at risk are where people actually refuse to innovate and adapt. So people using AI are going to replace people who don’t. Human-guided AI will be the key, for both businesses and individuals (graphic design, artists, content journalists, education and educational content)If we take a bird’s eye view of history, where are we in time? In terms of invention and our perception of our abilities and opportunities?Synthetic resurrection, AI companions, romantic attachments to chatbots,We’ve never been able to replicate reality beforeHenry Ajder is a globally recognised advisor, speaker, and broadcaster working at the frontier of the generative AI and synthetic media revolution.Henry’s work has transformed society’s understanding of deepfakes and generative AI. He has led pioneering research at organisations including MIT, WITNESS, and Sensity AI, influencing international legislation and corporate AI strategy.He advises organisations on the opportunities and challenges these game-changing technologies present, including Meta, The European Commission, BBC, The Partnership on AI, and The House of Lords.Previously, Henry led Synthetic Futures, the first initiative dedicated to ethical generative AI and metaverse technologies, bringing together over 50 industry-leading organisations.Henry presented the BBC documentary series, The Future will be Synthesised, and regularly features in global media including The New York Times, MIT Tech Review, CNN, Reuters, and The Financial Times. He has been published by outlets including WIRED, The Next Web, NYU, and The World AI Summit. An established keynote speaker and guest expert, Henry has spoken at venues including SXSW, CogX, The University of Oxford, and Adweek. He has been named in the top 20 European power players in Generative AI by the publication Sifted, and a top 15 Generative AI Expert by Champions Speaking Agency.https://www.henryajder.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/henryajder/If you want better insights into challenges and decisions you or your business are facing, GARI’s analytical services are of unmatched complexity and high accuracy - whether your questions are on the green energy transition, trade and supply chains, or political and security related - contact us for a free consultation and see how you can optimise your decision-making.www.globari.org@LinkedIn @GARInstitute) / Twitter