Emotions and Inflation Impact Consumer Choices

The outlook for fall and winter holidays is bright, even for CPG items experiencing persistent inflation. Consumers are willing to spend a little more to make the holidays special, but it’s up to retailers to facilitate this. Circana’s Jonna Parker and 2010 Analytics’ Anne-Marie Roerink discuss supporting holiday traditions and encouraging the adoption of new seasonal flavors. Highlights When holidays fall during the week, such as Halloween 2024 landing on a Thursday, retailers should encourage consumers to stretch the celebrations.  Provide ideas for full-on parties and quick, fun meals to feed kids before trick-or-treating.  Start holiday promotions early to encourage consumers to come back for a second or third purchase. Retailers can add to the excitement by playing up seasonal flavors beyond pumpkin and mint, such as pecan, cinnamon, maple, and more.  Beyond holidays, retailers should focus on special occasions and promote affordability and inspiration for leftovers, especially proteins.

Cottage cheese. Grapes. Cucumbers. Each of these categories — among others — has seen tremendous sales lifts based on inspiration from social media influencers. Jonna Parker, team lead of Circana’s Fresh Foods Group, and Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, talk about the opportunity to lean into social media. Explore how you can inspire and entertain young consumers who are still learning their way around the kitchen and the grocery store.  Highlights:  Gen Z and millennials might be more engaged in social media, but every generation is looking for inspiration.  High inflation is working in grocery retail’s favor, as more consumers avoid restaurants and look for more affordable meal options. Using social media to help consumers save is a big opportunity.  Any product soaring in popularity is replacing another one. How can retailers, brands, growers, and shippers generate new occasions or bring excitement to existing occasions?

Retailers, brands, and services can support consumers around the world on their physical, mental, and social health journeys. Sally Lyons Wyatt, Circana’s global EVP and chief advisor, Consumer Goods & Foodservice Insights, shares well-being research highlights from industries as diverse as books, food, beauty, apparel, consumer tech, pet, toys, and more. Consumers’ pursuit of well-being is strong, and the opportunities to lean in and support them are many. You might just learn how to support your own well-being goals.  Highlights:  Not one of the three pillars of well-being — physical, mental, and social — exists in a silo. Brands, retailers, and services should consider opportunities outside their own lane to promote their offerings, including cross-merchandising opportunities with complementary products.  Well-being is a global concern. While regional differences exist, there are many universal views, including the benefits of physical fitness, food as medicine, mental health awareness, and the value of community engagement. 

U.S. consumers under the age of 35 will experience similar life stages as previous generations, but they will never mirror the grocery shopping patterns of older consumers. As the most ethnically diverse and tech-savvy population, they are inspired and moved by infotainment. They also have the unique ability to lean into their personal moods and appetites, answering in the moment, “what am I hungry for?” Jonna Parker, team lead, Circana’s Fresh Foods group, and Kelly Krumholz, perimeter client insights consultant, talk about stark generational differences. Learn why it’s important to start solving for the needs of shoppers aged 35 and younger, who soon will be the majority.  Highlights  Shoppers under the age of 35 have been shaped by the acceleration of smart phones, the explosion of social media, and the COVID-19 pandemic.  Younger consumers are interested in cuisines like Japanese, Korean, and Cuban. This is a stark contrast to those of older generations, who prefer Mediterranean.  While it may have been the case for older generations, Gen Z and younger millennials prove the grocery store is not the only place to buy perishables.  Shoppers under the age of 35 under-spend in fresh. Most of their food dollars are spent on center-store items.  Young shoppers are motivated by relevance and experience. Messages that invoke feeling or speak to mood are more likely to hit the mark than low price. 

When it comes to meals, U.S. consumers are having a 2020 moment, believes Darren Seifer, our industry advisor, Consumer Goods & Foodservice Insights. The percentage of meals sourced from retail for home consumption is nearly 87% in 2024, giving us a vibe of at-home behaviors during the pandemic. However, how we’re getting to those meals and what’s on the table is where shifts are occurring. Jonna Parker, team lead for our Fresh Foods Group, says grocery retail might be winning, but it’s not the stock-up of the pandemic times. Instead, it’s just-in-time shopping for specific meals, often with a view to how that meal will be extended to another occasion. Highlights:  With persistent high inflation, consumers routinely try to stretch their food budget, from buying smaller amounts that fulfill a meal or two, to packing a lunch for work or eating what’s on hand to avoid waste. Retailers – and even operators – should embrace their role of curating assortment and making suggestions for meal solutions, especially for Gen Z, who haven’t landed on their weekly routines.  Approaches to meals change dramatically during the week. Easy one-dish meals might be the answer for a weekday, but weekend meals can be complicated, from-scratch affairs.  We have identified 6 billion annual occasions where consumers tell us they table their budget in favor of a celebration. This behavior helps explain positive sales of premium products and even the success of fast casual restaurants, both of which deliver quality and experience. 

Circana has been chronicling changing consumption behaviors in its Eating Patterns in America research for 39 years. David Portalatin, Circana’s senior vice president and industry advisor for food and foodservice, shares how insights from our research inform go-to-market strategies and innovation across CPG manufacturing, grocery retail, and foodservice. David also shares some of the biggest shifts taking place in recent generations, including how Starbucks reinvented the coffee occasion even as coffee consumption at home was declining. Does anyone remember the after-dinner cup of coffee? Highlights: “Healthonomics” describes how consumers are balancing healthy choices amid persistent high inflation. Many consumers look for tiered offerings and base their purchases on their most desired attributes. Restaurant traffic is down, but restaurants will prevail. Consumers continue to place value on the food experience and service enjoyed while dining in restaurants. A ham sandwich has been the top lunch choice for 30 years or more. But the types of ham available, the emergence of artisanal breads, and different gourmet spreads have drastically changed the way it can be consumed. Where there’s innovation, there’s growth. Keep the innovation pipelines flowing.

How can you use the biggest takeaways from the 2024 International Dairy Deli Bakery Association (IDDBA) show in June to help your business succeed? Jonna Parker, team lead of Circana’s Fresh Foods Group, and Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, share highlights of new technologies, the challenges of balancing assortments by generational differences, the value of special occasions, and other lessons you should know for the rest of the year and beyond. Highlights: In addition to major holidays, consumers celebrate an average of 18 occasions annually. These events not only include more people, but they also represent moments when shoppers are willing to splurge to bring joy to others. Retailers are responding with more solutions and inspiration, from party trays to specialty baked goods. Innovation isn’t always about new. Brands and retailers should inspire consumers to use products they’re already buying in new ways. Technology can potentially offset labor challenges, but including high-touch offerings like hot bars and salad bars should be decided on a store-by-store or regional basis. Not all areas will support the investment.

Dupes, or replicas, of premium products are having a moment. Fueled by high inflation and turbocharged by social media, dupes are being purchased and touted with pride by U.S. consumers attracted to high-quality, low-priced items. Circana analysts Maggie Swiatkowski, Kristen Classi-Zummo, and Beth Goldstein illustrate how dupes are playing out across categories from apparel, accessories, and beauty to consumer tech, home goods, and food. Is this the dawn of a new era for private brands? Highlights: While dupes appeal to consumers of all ages, younger consumers are the most enthusiastic, given their strong engagement with social media. More than half of consumers have purchased a dupe and most would buy another. Even the products being duped benefit from the exposure and comparison of the replicas.

Nostalgia, inspiration, and self-care are trends driving consumer escapism. Inspired by her report, The Great Escape: Exploring the Rise of the Joy Economy, Kristen McLean, senior executive director of Circana’s Entertainment Knowledge group, highlights opportunities for connecting to consumers’ desire for escapism. Also important, she reviews what not to do. Highlights: Consumers are looking to escape negativity in the world. The joy economy provides manufacturers and retailers with the opportunity to serve consumers a positive experience. By putting the consumer at the center of decision-making, brands and retailers can benefit from participating in the joy economy. When done authentically, they can increase consumer loyalty. Younger consumers are looking for a deeper dialogue with brands. They are particularly more vocal about their expectations. Listening to these engaged consumers can fuel ideas for more meaningful connections.

There are four key principles fueling successful innovation beyond launch: distribution growth, trial, marketing support, and product expansion. None of these should be considered stand-alone strategies. Lisa Maas, principal and lead for Circana’s Innovation practice, shares examples from New Product Pacesetters on how to achieve growth in the years after launch. Highlights: Table stakes should include setting the right expectations for sales and distribution. Marketing and support investment might ease from a peak of 25% of sales in year one. But support, easily in the 6% range, should continue. Retailers will continue to monitor the ability of products to keep shoppers coming back. New forms, new occasions, and moving into adjacencies are easy ways for consumers to remain loyal to preferred brands.