InvestTalk 6-11-2024 – Lessons for Investors from the 'Father of Modern Finance'

Germany's Ifo Institute reported this week that its aging population is pushing social spending to record highs, a fiscal dynamic that closely mirrors the pressures the US Social Security and Medicare systems are heading toward. We examine what demographic-driven fiscal stress looks like, how it affects bond markets and currency strength, and what lessons American investors can draw.Today's Stocks & Topics: Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL), Market Wrap, Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW), Single Stock ETFs, Barrick Mining Corporation (B), Germany's Aging Population and Record Social Spending: A Preview of America's Fiscal Future?, State Street SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF (XHS), Sectors to Invest In, LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. (LMAT), The Hackett Group, Inc. (HCKT), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), GE Vernova Inc. (GEV), Bad Investments.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/INVEST for a great deal: https://www.quince.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Ray Dalio warned this week that Treasury Secretary Bessent's market intervention signals a debt crisis is getting closer — and he's recommending gold and bitcoin as hedges. We dig into what the bond market is telling us about US fiscal sustainability and whether Dalio's alarm bells should change how everyday investors position themselves.Today's Stocks & Topics: Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), Market Wrap, TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI), Oil Markets, The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW), Ray Dalio's Debt Crisis Warning: Is the US Heading for a Fiscal Breaking Point?, Energizer Holdings, Inc. (ENR), Digital Core REIT (SGX:DCRU), T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW), Saving to Buy a House.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/INVEST for a great deal: https://www.quince.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

The Senate has delayed work on the Clarity Act while regulators continue building a broader framework for digital assets, with the White House preparing a meeting of crypto executives, the SEC, and the CFTC. We will walk through what a regulatory framework would actually change for ordinary investors, and how to evaluate this space without treating it as a portfolio cornerstone. Today's Stocks & Topics: Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD), Market Wrap, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL), Private Credit, Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY), Regulation catches up to digital assets, Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK), EnerSys (ENS), Investment Loss, AAON, Inc. (AAON), US Packaged Food Companies.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/INVEST for a great deal: https://www.quince.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

The Kansas City Fed set this year's Jackson Hole theme as financial innovation and its implications for payments and policy, arriving alongside a stablecoin float above $307 billion. We will break down what tokenized money and instant payments actually change about the plumbing of the financial system, and what investors should and should not read into it.Today's Stocks & Topics: VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Wrap, Sandisk Corporation (SNDK), How to Identify Winning Stocks?, Nucor Corporation (NUE), Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD), Financial innovation is now a Fed problem, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund (VEU), Key Benchmark Numbers: Treasury Yields, Gold, Silver, Oil and Gasoline, Sonos, Inc. (SONO), IMAX Corporation (IMAX), State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), Taxable Account.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/INVEST for a great deal: https://www.quince.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

The dollar has fallen to a two-month low against the euro, near 1.1590. On tomorrow's InvestTalk, we explain why currency moves quietly drive a large share of international fund returns, and whether hedged or unhedged exposure makes more sense from here.Today's Stocks & Topics: VBWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT), Market Wrap, Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD), Money Market Funds, First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG), The dollar's slide and what it does to your foreign holdings, Nucor Corporation (NUE), Zoetis Inc. (ZTS), T. Rowe Price International Value Equity Fund (TRIGX), iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF (IXUS), SEC’s Plan to Eliminate Quarterly Reporting.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/INVEST for a great deal: https://www.quince.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

The Russell 2000 set a fresh record to close out last week even as large caps struggled. On tomorrow's InvestTalk, we look at what leadership rotation historically signals, and how investors should think about size exposure without chasing a two-week move.Today's Stocks & Topics: Vanguard Morningstar Mid-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral Shares (VMVAX), Market Wrap, Rollins, Inc. (ROL), Household Debt, American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP), Small caps woke up: is the rally finally broadening?, Physical Gold or Gold Stocks, Apple Inc. (AAPL), Housing Insurance.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/INVEST for a great deal: https://www.quince.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

The federal government will spend about a trillion dollars on interest this year, roughly what it spends on national defense, and every rate increase makes that number larger. We will explain why the government’s own borrowing costs now shape monetary policy, what that means for long-dated bonds, and why central banks around the world are buying gold at the fastest pace in years.Today's Stocks & Topics: Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO), Market Wrap, Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), Car Makers and Motor Oil, The Trillion-dollar Interest Bill Nobody Votes On, Avantis International Equity ETF (AVDE), Short Selling vs Put Options, Chevron Corporation (CVX), Salesforce, Inc. (CRM), ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW).Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/INVEST for a great deal: https://www.quince.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

In the same week that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dwindled and a new Iran bill threatens to bar 'hostile' ships, Turkish officials confirmed Black Sea passage continues while Houthi attacks escalate in the Red Sea region. We map out how simultaneous threats to multiple critical waterways create compounding risks for global trade, inflation, and investor portfolios.Today's Stocks & Topics: Positions Sizing, Market Wrap, Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. (IIPR), Private Investments, Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT), Global Shipping Under Siege: How Hormuz, the Black Sea, and Red Sea Threats Hit Your Investments, Equity and Retirement, Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM), Big Tech Earnings, ONEOK, Inc. (OKE), AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB), Interest Rates.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/INVEST for a great deal: https://www.quince.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

A weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report sent the dollar sliding and pushed back market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. We explore what softer labor data means for the rate outlook, bond markets, and where investors should be positioned.Today's Stocks & Topics: The Glimpse Group, Inc. (GGRP), Market Wrap, FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL), Veralto Corporation (VLTO), Market Rotation, V.F. Corporation (VFC), Soft Jobs Report and the Dollar's New Direction: What It Means for Investors, KPP Newsletter, Otis Worldwide Corporation (OTIS), Key Benchmark Numbers: Treasury Yields, Gold, Silver, Oil and Gasoline, Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT), Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX), How Much Money Do You Need To Be Happy?Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/INVEST for a great deal: https://www.quince.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

A new report shows homes are selling below asking price in 38 of the 50 biggest U.S. cities, a signal that the long-dominant seller's market may be finally turning. We examine what this shift means for real estate as an asset class, homebuilder stocks, and mortgage-sensitive portfolios.Today's Stocks & Topics: AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV), Market Wrap, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN), Affordable Care Act (ACA), Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO), U.S. Housing Market Cracks: Homes Selling Below Asking Price in 38 Major Cities, Pulse Biosciences, Inc. (PLSE), Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER), Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD), Dillard's, Inc. (DDS), Margin Debt.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/INVEST for a great deal: https://www.quince.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands