Invest Like The Best

Sarah Guo is the founder of Conviction and one of the most closely watched investors in AI. In this conversation, Sarah and Patrick discuss what the people at the frontier of AI actually believe, why some researchers think exponential intelligence may be only a few years away, and how she’s navigating an investing environment that can’t be backtested.They also explore the race for compute, the future of open-source AI, why America may need compute independence, the rapid progress in robotics, how AI could transform biology and drug discovery, and Sarah’s framework for building conviction before the rest of the market catches up.Timestamps0:00 Intro1:08 Investing Through the AI Boom5:03 Building Conviction in AI12:06 What AI Researchers Believe15:44 Compute, Capital & Robotics24:03 How Sarah Makes Investments39:24 The Case for Open Source49:01 America’s Compute Independence51:32 AI’s New Investment Markets59:36 Finding Truth & What’s Next#InvestLikeTheBest #SarahGuo #ArtificialIntelligence #AI #VentureCapital #Investing #OpenSourceAI #Robotics #Technology #StartupsPresented by Ramp:https://ramp.com/investSponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline:https://www.vanta.com/investhttps://workos.com/https://rogo.ai/investhttps://www.ridgelineapps.com/******Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vcConviértete en un supporter de este podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/invest-like-the-best--7309953/support.

Neil Movva, co-founder of Sail Research, joins Patrick to explain why the next era of AI may be defined not by faster chatbots, but by background agents that work autonomously for hours, days, or even weeks—and what it will take to make that intelligence cheap enough to become abundant. Neil lays out Sail’s “token factory” strategy across software, chips, data centers, and power; the lessons he learned chasing “speed of light” performance at Nvidia; why he’ll buy almost any chip at the right price; and why unreliable, distributed data centers powered by sources like solar and wind could actually be an advantage. They also discuss transformers and memory, the future of AI training data, the economics of the chip shortage, open versus closed models, and Neil’s belief that there will always be demand for more intelligence.TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro0:38 Building a “Token Factory”4:21 The Future of Background Agents13:09 Nvidia and the GPU Stack23:27 Chips, Memory, and Transformers36:14 The Future of AI Training Data44:32 Chip Scarcity and Compute Arbitrage52:44 Reinventing the AI Data Center59:01 Power and the “Scavenger Strategy”1:10:10 Open vs. Closed AI#ArtificialIntelligence #AIAgents #NVIDIA #AIInfrastructure #InvestLikeTheBestPresented by Ramp:https://ramp.com/investSponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline:https://www.vanta.com/investhttps://workos.com/https://rogo.ai/investhttps://www.ridgelineapps.com/******Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vcConviértete en un supporter de este podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/invest-like-the-best--7309953/support.

Ben Thompson joins Invest Like the Best for a wide-ranging conversation about the economics, geopolitics, and business models shaping the AI era. They discuss why overwhelming U.S. dominance in AI could be dangerous, whether the massive AI infrastructure buildout can generate returns before the capital runs out, and what the railroad boom can teach us about today’s spending cycle. Ben also explains why Google may increasingly resemble Berkshire Hathaway, how AI could turn intelligence into a commodity, why Amazon may have the deepest moat in technology, what Apple gets right by staying focused on hardware, how AI threatens Microsoft’s core business, why the current compute shortage may have saved Intel, and why Google and Amazon could ultimately become Nvidia’s most important competitors.#InvestLikeTheBest #BenThompson #ArtificialIntelligence #AI #Investing #Technology #Nvidia #GoogleTIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro0:59 America and the AI Race8:26 AI’s Funding Problem15:31 AI’s Capabilities and Limits20:30 Aggregation Theory, AI, and Ads31:10 Compute, TSMC, and Intel47:31 Amazon and Apple’s AI Moats54:43 The Frontier AI Players74:07 Nvidia and Commoditized Intelligence82:52 What Survives an AI Bubble?Presented by Ramp:https://ramp.com/investSponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline:https://www.vanta.com/investhttps://workos.com/https://rogo.ai/investhttps://www.ridgelineapps.com/******Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vcConviértete en un supporter de este podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/invest-like-the-best--7309953/support.

Eric Vishria, General Partner at Benchmark, joins Invest Like the Best for a wide-ranging conversation on how AI is reshaping software, infrastructure, and venture investing. He explains why the competitive frontier for SaaS has shifted, why companies can destroy value by faithfully executing an outdated plan, and what the cloud wars can teach us about the emerging AI market. Eric also discusses Fireworks and Sierra, the importance of understanding AI’s “jagged edge,” why some AI companies are effectively “selling magic,” and why he believes the market could support many enormous winners. The conversation also covers energy as a potential bottleneck to intelligence, the story behind Benchmark’s early investment in Cerebras, the future of robotics, what he looks for in founders and board partnerships, Benchmark’s expansion into growth investing, and the lessons he’s learned from backing companies capable of generating extraordinary returns.TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro3:36 What Cloud Teaches Us About AI12:52 Sierra, Sandcastles, and AI Products17:35 The New SaaS Competitive Frontier28:28 AI Demand and the Energy Bottleneck31:28 The Cerebras Story and AI Chips45:10 The Future of Robotics52:53 Eric’s Venture Investing Philosophy1:07:30 Going Public, AI Value, and JobsPresented by Ramp:https://ramp.com/investSponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline:https://www.vanta.com/investhttps://workos.com/https://rogo.ai/investhttps://www.ridgelineapps.com/******Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vcConviértete en un supporter de este podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/invest-like-the-best--7309953/support.

In this episode of Invest Like the Best, Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Gavin Baker to dissect the intense AI and semiconductor market sell-off of July 2026. Describing the period as "2022 packed into a single month," Gavin explains why public market panic contrasts sharply with the booming fundamentals seen on the ground in Silicon Valley. They dive into the accelerating operating cash flows of hyperscalers, the soaring spot prices for GPUs, and why open-source AI models are actually driving massive infrastructure demand. Gavin also unpacks the game theory behind Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) in the memory market, NVIDIA's strategic dominance, SpaceX's massive data center ambitions, and the looming regulatory risks for AI compute.Timestamps:0:00 Intro1:17 AI Selloff vs. Fundamentals10:20 Financing the AI Buildout18:18 GPU Prices Keep Rising24:23 Claude Moves Markets29:01 What Could Break the Thesis36:59 The Memory Supply War42:08 Nvidia’s New Playbook50:14 China and Open Source61:51 Data Centers and Regulation71:11 SpaceX and Orbital Compute#Investing #AI #Semiconductors #Nvidia #StockMarket #Technology #DataCenters #OpenSource #Finance #VentureCapital #nvidia #stocks #sell #stockmarket Presented by Ramp:https://ramp.com/investSponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline:https://www.vanta.com/investhttps://workos.com/https://rogo.ai/investhttps://www.ridgelineapps.com/******Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vcConviértete en un supporter de este podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/invest-like-the-best--7309953/support.

Sam Altman joins us for a wide-ranging conversation about OpenAI’s next chapter, the race for compute, and what happens as artificial intelligence becomes more powerful, abundant, and embedded across the economy. He explains why OpenAI recently narrowed its focus, why demand for intelligence may be effectively uncapped, how close we may be to AGI, and what the future could hold for robotics, jobs, hardware, and human agency. We also discuss the accidental launch of ChatGPT, OpenAI’s competitive advantages, the economics of intelligence, and the pressure and responsibility that come with leading one of the world’s most consequential companies.TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro4:10 The Race for Compute14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest LessonsPresented by Ramp:https://ramp.com/investSponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline:https://www.vanta.com/investhttps://workos.com/https://rogo.ai/investhttps://www.ridgelineapps.com/******Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vc#SamAltman #OpenAI #ArtificialIntelligence #AGI #AI #FutureOfAI #Technology #Robotics #InvestLikeTheBestConviértete en un supporter de este podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/invest-like-the-best--7309953/support.

Matt Smith joins us to explain why the United States may be approaching a historic natural gas shortage—and why the market is not yet pricing it in. After 18 months of bottom-up research across producing basins, pipelines, processing infrastructure, LNG exports, and AI power projects, Matt argues that the country could begin drawing down gas storage at unprecedented rates as early as 2028, with major implications for electricity prices, hyperscaler economics, and the American consumer.In June, Matthew wrote a letter to a small group of confidants laying out the full case behind his natural gas forecast. He has allowed us to publish it. You can read the full letter here: https://colossus.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/letter-III-got-gas.pdfTIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:30 What Drives the Deficit11:00 Why Supply Can’t Catch Up20:35 The 2030 Gas Crisis25:05 Winners and Losers29:00 Nuclear and Solar33:30 Consumers Pay the Bill37:20 AI’s Next Shortage45:25 Solutions and Global Stakes51:15 The Coming Gas Knife FightPresented by Ramp:https://ramp.com/investSponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline:https://www.vanta.com/investhttps://workos.com/https://rogo.ai/investhttps://www.ridgelineapps.com/******Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vc#NaturalGas #ArtificialIntelligence #EnergyMarkets #AIInfrastructure #DataCenters #NuclearEnergy #InvestingConviértete en un supporter de este podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/invest-like-the-best--7309953/support.

John Kim, former chief development officer at General Catalyst and author of The Tao of Fundraising, joins us to explain the psychology, strategy, and human dynamics behind raising capital.John argues that money moves at the speed of trust—and that the best fundraisers understand how to increase desire, reduce fear, simplify their story, and build genuine conviction. He shares the three laws of fundraising, explains how General Catalyst built consensus across its investor base, and breaks down why logic alone rarely persuades someone to say yes.TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro4:07 Starting a Fundraise10:40 How General Catalyst Built Consensus16:56 The Three Laws of Fundraising27:01 The Psychology of Every Sales Meeting36:49 The Secretary of State Model46:12 The Inner Game of FundraisingPresented by Ramp:https://ramp.com/investSponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline:https://www.vanta.com/investhttps://workos.com/https://rogo.ai/investhttps://www.ridgelineapps.com/******Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vcConviértete en un supporter de este podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/invest-like-the-best--7309953/support.

Jeremy Giffon joins us for his second conversation on Invest Like the Best. This episode is a window into one of those conversations about how power, status, capital, and attention are shifting in America.We discuss the billion dollar PDF, why narratives shape capital formation, how the timeline became market infrastructure, why America’s billionaire class may be losing status to the “poaster” class, the hidden philosophers behind Silicon Valley, lessons from the last 18 months in private markets, East Coast versus West Coast finance, Buffett, beating the market, and much more.TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro5:50 The Billion Dollar PDF11:31 Algorithms and Power Laws20:28 Peak Guy31:19 Opting Out of the Timeline36:14 AI and White-Collar Jobs43:31 The Next Era of Finance53:56 The New Economics of Software1:03:22 Underwriting Emerging Managers1:18:17 Silicon Valley’s Hidden PhilosophyPresented by Ramp:https://ramp.com/investSponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline:https://www.vanta.com/investhttps://workos.com/https://rogo.ai/investhttps://www.ridgelineapps.com/******Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vc#InvestLikeTheBest #JeremyGiffon #VentureCapital #CapitalMarkets #SiliconValleyConviértete en un supporter de este podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/invest-like-the-best--7309953/support.

Gavin Uberti and Robert Wachen, co-founders of Etched, join us to tell the story of building one of the most ambitious AI chip companies in the world. Three years ago, they were two Harvard dropouts trying to convince skeptics they could build better inference hardware than the largest semiconductor companies on earth. Today, Etched has raised $800M, signed more than $1B in customer contracts, and taped out a working chip designed for the post-ChatGPT era. We discuss why inference may become the largest market in the world, why Etched built an entire rack instead of just a chip, the technical bets behind low-voltage inference and cluster-scale memory, how they recruited industry legends while still in their twenties, the near-death fundraising moments that almost ended the company, and why the future of AI may belong to whoever can produce the most tokens.TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:00 Why Nobody Believed Etched Would Work14:06 Why Inference Is the Bottleneck22:27 Gavin and Rob’s Origin Stories33:24 Taking Huge Risks to Move Faster49:43 Kernels, Compilers, and the AI Stack1:02:08 Raising $100M to Survive1:16:00 The Future of Models, Agents, and IntelligencePresented by Ramp:https://ramp.com/investSponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline:https://www.vanta.com/investhttps://workos.com/https://rogo.ai/investhttps://www.ridgelineapps.com/******Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vc#InvestLikeTheBest #Etched #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #AIChips #NVIDIA #Semiconductors #Inference #Compute #AIInfrastructure #DataCenters #Startups #VentureCapital #Hardware #DeepTechConviértete en un supporter de este podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/invest-like-the-best--7309953/support.