Ep. 170 — An update from the Department of What Could Go Wrong

The (still technically unofficial) leader of Al Qaeda, Saif al-Adel, wrote an article under a pseudonym calling for people around the world to flock to Afghanistan for training to conduct attacks against “the Zionists.” Clear efforts by Al Qaeda to capitalize on the conflict in Gaza — but is the threat credible? Does al Qaeda in Afghanistan even have the means? Yes and yes, say Bill and Will Selber, LWJ contributor and retired Middle East Foreign Area Officer. They discuss how we give an enemy time and space to innovate and then ignore their threats at our own peril.

The Islamic Republic of Iran tightening its noose around Israel can be evidenced by activity from the Houthis and in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and — lest we forget — the West Bank. How does the West Bank threat compare to the Gaza threat? Who holds power in the West Bank, and which terrorist groups are active there? Top of the list? Islamic Jihad. They discuss Joe’s recent research on the senior members of Islamic Jihad that were killed in a counterterrorism operation in the West Bank and losses suffered by the group’s Syria branch in Lebanon. 

Bill and Behnam unpack a recent DIA report on the impact of Houthi attacks on international shipping and discuss everything the Houthis have been able to do with the limited resources supplied by Islamic Republic of Iran (and considering the bang for their buck, why wouldn’t they continue to supply weapons?); the perilous pattern of the U.S. ignoring when its enemies scream from the rooftops what their intentions are; and the credibility of claims made by the Houthi leader that an attack against Israel is being planned with help from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq — should we believe him? 

Bill and Joe discuss Israel’s slow news weekend which included a hostage rescue followed by a high-level war cabinet resignation. The floating Gaza pier and al Qaeda are also discussed (because Bill).

Bill and Behnam discuss a Tablet Magazine article “Israel is Succeeding in Gaza” and whether there are any possible “settle-for-less” military and political outcomes in Gaza that involve anything other than the total defeat of Hamas; an IDF soldier killed by Hamas terrorists attempting to infiltrate Israel from Gaza; Iran’s IRGC vowing revenge for an Israeli strike in Syria that allegedly killed an IRGC general; and Israel’s new normal of daily skirmishes with Hezbollah on its northern border.

Bill is joined by his FDD colleague and GJ regular David Daoud for an update on Israel’s skirmish with Hezbollah at its northern border. 

The botched U.S. withdrawal in 2021 left behind a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan with al-Qaeda running training camps using abandoned American military equipment. Terrorism confined by the borders of Afghanistan until history repeats itself and it isn’t. Luckily, a major resistance movement is taking shape in Afghanistan and attempting to organize against the Taliban.To learn about three groups that have emerged at the forefront Bill is joined by Will Selber, retired Middle East Foreign Area Officer with multiple deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan.They discuss who’s who in the resistance, which groups could be effective enough to take the fight to the Taliban (and which should sit it out), the work ahead and what they need for success — including unification. 

Bill and Behnam catch up on new Houthi activity, reports of the Iranian regime leveraging criminal groups in Sweden to target Israeli and Jewish interests, and an update on the most expensive piece of performance art in history, the floating humanitarian aid pier in Gaza.

Bill and Behnam discuss the helicopter crash in northern Iran that killed multiple regime officials, chief among them Ebrahim Raisi who was President of the Islamic Republic and a top contender to be the next Supreme Leader. Was it an accident?Given the Islamic Republic’s constitutional mandate that elections be held to replace Raisi, who might be the next president? What does the president even do? What will it mean for Iran’s foreign and security policyThey also revisit Raisi’s history in the regime or as Behnam calls it, “failing up.” From being the youngest hand-picked by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to head the infamous “death commission” and implement fatwas issued by the then-Supreme Leader to his days as a hanging judge and heading the judiciary, the “Butcher of Tehran” had a lot of blood on his hands.

Bill is joined again by our most special guest, Long War Journal/Generation Jihad OG and now senior fellow at Just Security Thomas Joscelyn, to unpack another marathon, closed-door HFAC testimony. This time, the more than 200 pages of testimony they sifted through is from General Miller, the top U.S. general in Afghanistan during the botched withdrawal. They discuss testimony highlights, including when Gen. Miller throws shade at Bill and Tom but in the same breath admits that “they had it right.”