687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?

An economist calls America’s beef industry a “miracle.” An antitrust scholar calls it “broken.” Maybe they’re both right? SOURCES:Austin Frerick, agriculture antitrust expert, fellow at Yale University, author of Barons: Money, Power, and the Corruption of America's Food Industry.Robert Hodgen, C.E.O. of King Ranch.Roger Horowitz, food historian, director of the Center for the History of Business, Technology, and Society at the Hagley Museum and Library.Derrell Peel, Charles Breedlove Professorship of Agribusiness in the department of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University. RESOURCES:"The hamburger story," by Derrell Peel (Beef, 2026)."Trump is letting in 300,000 tons of beef duty-free. Don’t expect cheaper burgers," by Elisabeth Buchwald (CNN, 2026)."DOJ Probes Soaring Beef Prices at Eight Major Stores Including Walmart," by Hugh Cameron (Newsweek, 2026)."Takeaways from the Pause on Foreign Corrupt Practices Act Enforcement," by Brendan Quigley, Bridget Moore, Kyle Clark, and Baker Botts (Harvard Law School, 2025)."Tyson and Leviathan: USDA Rulemaking and the PSA Harm to Competition Requirement," by Spencer James Parts (University of Chicago Business Review, 2022)."Average Price: All Uncooked Ground Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average," (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). EXTRAS:"An Economics Lesson from a Talking Pencil (Update)," by Freakonomics Radio (2025)."The Future of Meat," by Freakonomics Radio (2019). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

That’s the question at the heart of a battle between Kalshi and state gambling regulators. As prediction markets boom, there are other questions, too — about insider trading, market manipulation, and whether the public has turned against them. (Part two of a two-part series.)  SOURCES:Gary Gensler, former chair of the S.E.C. and the C.F.T.C.Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi. RESOURCES:"Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?" by Robin Hanson (Journal of Political Philosophy, 2013). EXTRAS:"Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?" by Freakonomics Radio (2026)."He Helped Clean Up the Last Crash. Does He See Another One Coming?" by Freakonomics Radio (2026)."The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a two-part series.) SOURCES:Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi. RESOURCE:"Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets," by Anthony Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan Wright (Federal Reserve Board, 2026)."Slowly, Then All At Once: What Mamdani's Victory Tells Us About Information Aggregation," (Kalshi Research, 2026)."Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs," by Robin Hanson (2000)."The Use of Knowledge in Society," by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945). EXTRAS:"The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019)."How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future," by Freakonomics Radio (2016)."The Folly of Prediction," by Freakonomics Radio (2011). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

He was thriving in the N.F.L., but then he decided to focus on mathematics — a subject he now teaches at M.I.T. John walks Stephen Dubner through the whole story, teaches him some blocking techniques, and explains why some infinities are bigger than others. If you'd like to see the video version of Better in Person, you can watch it on YouTube or Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

For decades, teams have tried (and mostly failed) to predict which college quarterbacks will thrive in the pros. Is the science finally catching up? Stephen Dubner speaks with a scout, a psychologist, a data warrior, and a Hall of Fame quarterback who nobody wanted.   SOURCES:Scott Goldman, sports psychologist, owner of the Athletic Intelligence Quotient.Dan Hatman, director of scouting development at the Scouting Academy.Stephen Smith, founder and C.E.O. of Kitman Labs.Kurt Warner, Hall-of-Fame quarterback, N.F.L. Network analyst. RESOURCES:"Head in the game: the impact of cognitive abilities on performance of National Football League quarterbacks," by R. Thomas Boone, Nicholas Zambrotta, Andrew Manocchio, and James Bowman (Frontiers in Psychology, 2025)."The Quarterback Prediction Problem: Forecasting the Performance of College Quarterbacks Selected in the NFL Draft," by Julian Wolfson, Vittorio Addona, Robert Schmicker (Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2011). EXTRAS:"The Merger You Never Knew You Wanted," by Freakonomics Radio (2025)."The Rooney Rule," series by Freakonomics Radio (2024). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

He started with one small shop in London. He has since resuscitated both Barnes & Noble and Waterstones. He tells Stephen Dubner exactly how he does it. If you'd like to see the video version of Better in Person, you can watch it on YouTube or Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gina Raimondo, a former commerce secretary and governor, thinks A.I. will create plenty of jobs in the long run. She also thinks a poorly managed transition could tear the country apart. So she came up with a plan.  SOURCES:Gina Raimondo, co-chair and C.E.O. of RAISE US. RESOURCES:"What Makes New Work Different from More Work?," by David Autor, Caroline Chin, Anna Salomons, and Bryan Seegmiller (NBER, 2026)."$500 million AI jobs push launches with bipartisan backing," by Christine Mui (POLITICO, 2026)."Gina Raimondo and Eric Holcomb Launch RAISE US, Uniting the Nation’s Leading Employers and Bipartisan Governors Behind American Workers," (RAISE US, 2026)."Young Graduates Face the Grimmest Job Market in Years," (New York Times, 2026)."Why AI Giants Are Investing $500 Million To Retrain American Workforce," by Jon Markman (Forbes, 2026)."Wicker Praises Research, STEM Education Provisions in New CHIPS Act," (U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, 2022). EXTRAS:"Can A.I. Save Your Life?," by Freakonomics Radio (2026)."Will the Democrats 'Make America Great Again'?," by Freakonomics Radio (2023)."How Do You Reopen a Country?," by Freakonomics Radio (2020)."How to Be a Modern Democrat — and Win," by Freakonomics Radio (2018). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Anne Pasternak (Brooklyn Museum) and Michael Roth (Wesleyan University) tell Stephen Dubner how they keep the peace in the middle of a culture war.   If you'd like to see the video version of Better in Person, you can watch it on YouTube or Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Museums are purging their collections of looted treasures. Can they also get something in return? And what does it mean to be a museum in the 21st century? (Part 3 of an updated series originally published in 2023.)   SOURCES: Patricia Allan, museum consultant, former curator of world cultures for the Glasgow Museums. Andrea Bayer, deputy director for collections and administration at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York. Lonnie G. Bunch III, Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution. Victor Ehikhamenor, Nigerian writer and artist. Patty Gerstenblith, professor emeritus of law at DePaul University College of Law. Tom Wilkening, professor of economics at the University of Melbourne.   RESOURCES: "After Seizures, the Met Sets a Plan to Scour Collections for Looted Art," by Robin Pogrebin and Graham Bowley (The New York Times, 2023). "Nigeria Benin Bronzes: Buhari Declaration 'Blindsides' Museum Officials," by Barnaby Phillips (B.B.C., 2023). "Shared Stewardship and Ethical Returns Policy," by the Smithsonian Ethical Returns Working Group (2022). "Protecting Antiquities: A Role for Long-Term Leases?" by Michael Kremer and Tom Wilkening (Working Paper, 2015).   EXTRAS: “Stealing Art Is Easy. Giving It Back Is Hard,” series by Freakonomics Radio (2023). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Pulitzer Prize-winning novelist Jennifer Egan talks about confidence, luck, and why it takes 35 drafts to get to the finish line. If you'd like to see the video version of Better in Person, you can watch it on YouTube or Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.