Forecast 2050

Nobody has shown why there should be a limit to how much we can benefit from intelligence. If that holds, AI could be the first market in semiconductor history without a bust. Walter Goodwin, founder and CEO of Fractile, and Sir Robin Saxby, founding CEO of ARM, joined me on Forecast 2050 to discuss the future of semiconductors in the age of AI on the heels of Fractile’s $720M Series C. We’re delighted to be an investor with Fractile at Nebular.Extended Show Notes: https://substack.com/home/post/p-224512051Chapters:00:00 Intro01:24 Starting Fractile06:01 Inference Is the Profit Center09:39 Chips Over My Dead Body: The Founding of ARM18:45 The Art of the Opinionated Chip25:09 Breaking the Memory Wall32:15 How ARM Picked Winners38:23 Robin Calls a Correction42:51 The Stickiness of the Transformer46:49 Is There a Limit to AI Demand?56:11 How TSMC Became the Standard57:44 AI-Designed Chips1:03:52 Brutal HonestyWalter Goodwin is the founder and CEO of Fractile, a London-based chip-first frontier AI company building chips and systems to run frontier models far faster than today's hardware can.Sir Robin Saxby is the founding CEO and former chairman of ARM, the largest company by market cap ever to come out of the UK.Fractile: https://www.fractile.aiWalter on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/walter-goodwin/Walter on X: https://x.com/goodwin_mlRobin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robin-saxby-b3a8482a/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Apple didn't just build its iPhones in China. It taught China how to build them, and then how to build everything else. Now Apple says it's diversifying. But Patrick McGee thinks Apple is more dependent on China than ever before.Journalist Patrick McGee, author of Apple in China: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company, joined me on Forecast 2050 to explain how Apple’s bet on Chinese manufacturing helped create America’s only real tech rival, why Trump doesn’t have the cards with Xi, whether China takes Taiwan, why Nvidia would be useless in a war, and what the US-China relationship will look like by 2050.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/how-apple-made-china-into-a-superpower00:00 Intro02:54 Manufacturing Is Power11:59 The CCP16:56 Will China Take Taiwan by 2050?25:11 Why Nvidia Would Be Useless in a War27:06 The Case for Industrial Policy32:04 How Xi Brought Apple to Heel39:32 The End of Pax Americana47:20 The Next Jony Ive is Chinese01:00:20 China’s Next Leaders01:07:47 Demographic Collapse & AutomationPatrick McGee is a technology journalist who covered Apple for the Financial Times from 2019 to 2023 and wrote for the FT from 2013 to 2025, reporting from Hong Kong, Frankfurt and San Francisco. His book Apple in China won the SABEW Award for Best Business Book and was named a top book of 2025 by The New York Times, Foreign Affairs and The New Yorker.Patrick on X: https://x.com/PatrickMcGee_Patrick on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/prmcgee/Website: https://patrick-mcgee.comForecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Laura Kreidberg believes there is life out there in the universe. An astrophysicist and director at the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy in Heidelberg, Germany, Laura is one of the youngest directors ever appointed to a Max Planck Institute. Her work uses the Hubble and James Webb space telescopes to explore the atmospheres of planets orbiting distant stars. I sat down with Laura to discuss how astronomers study worlds too far away to photograph, why intelligence may not be evolutionarily favorable, and why Laura thinks we'll discover life on other worlds in the next 30 years.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/the-hunt-for-alien-life-on-distantChapters:00:00 Intro03:10 The Atmospheres of Other Worlds08:14 In Astronomy, Bigger is Better10:50 Earth-like Planets20:04 The Huge Variety of Exoplanets26:03 Science Communication27:30 Intelligence is Not Evolutionary Favorable33:30 Signs of Life on Exoplanets40:19 Discovering Aliens in 30 Years45:44 Science as Soft PowerLaura Kreidberg is the Director at the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, where she studies the atmospheres of exoplanets for signs of life.Laura on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/laura-kreidberg-3a08581b7Laura on X: https://x.com/lkreidbergMax Planck Institute for Astronomy Profile: https://www.mpia.de/en/laura-kreidbergForecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Silicon Valley frames AI as a race against China to reach AGI. In China, almost nobody thinks that way.Journalist Yi-Ling Liu, author of The Wall Dancers and journalist in residence at the Tarbell Center for AI Journalism, joined me on Forecast 2050 to explain how China actually sees AI, the “permanent underclass” that predates automation, demographic collapse and the Chinese silver economy, and the Christian origins of the transhumanist movement.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/why-is-silicon-valley-obsessed-withChapters:00:00 Intro02:58 Superintelligence Is Not China’s Goal08:06 The Pre-AI Permanent Underclass11:00 The Tech-Government Revolving Door17:05 Lying Flat19:57 Christian Singularity vs. Daoist AI26:06 Overcoming Censorship32:10 The TikTok Ban36:58 Chinese Perceptions of the West46:16 The Silver EconomyYi-Ling Liu is a journalist in residence at the Tarbell Center for AI Journalism, former China editor at Rest of World, and author of The Wall Dancers: Searching for Freedom and Connection on the Chinese Internet.Yi-Ling on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/yi-ling-l-89799783/Yi-Ling on X: https://x.com/yilingliu95Website: https://www.yi-lingliu.com/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

General David Petraeus believes we need draconian change to prepare for the age of autonomous warfare. A retired four-star general, Gen. Petraeus commanded U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and led U.S. Central Command before serving as director of the CIA. I sat down with Gen. Petraeus to discuss the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, how autonomous drones and weapons will fight the wars of the future, and the new big ideas we need to keep the world stable for the next 25 years.Chapters:00:00 Intro01:57 Commanding Autonomous Systems04:55 Revolution, Not Reform11:21 Inside the Death Zone19:17 America Is Unprepared for Future Wars23:41 A New AI Military Service Branch35:12 The UK Will Lead Military Innovation42:02 The War for Truth49:19 The Big Ideas for the Next 25 Years54:15 The Leaders of the FutureDavid Petraeus is a former CIA Director who commanded U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and is now a partner at KKR and the Chairman of its Global Institute.General Petraeus on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidpetraeus/Thanks to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project for the maps in the interview: www.understandingwar.org and www.criticalthreats.org.Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

The real reason AI was given to humans is to communicate with animals, according to David Gruber. A marine biologist and National Geographic Explorer, he is the founder of Project CETI, a global effort of more than 50 scientists across eight disciplines working to decode the communication of sperm whales. In this episode of Forecast 2050, I sit down with David to discuss the prospect of an interspecies dialogue and the seismic implications it will have for all of us, whales included.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/can-ai-talk-to-whales-project-cetiChapters:00:00 Intro01:48 David's Journey12:30 An Interspecies Dialogue17:14 Sperm Whale Language & Culture23:48 The Breakthroughs Yet to Come27:49 The Whales Are Yappers31:03 Sperm Whales Have Accents39:47 Verifying a Whale Translation42:13 What Success Looks Like47:32 Saving the Whales David Gruber is a marine biologist and National Geographic Explorer who founded Project CETI, a team of more than 50 scientists using AI to decode how sperm whales communicate.David on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-gruber-b003871/Project CETI on X: https://x.com/ProjectCETIProject CETI on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/projectceti/Project CETI Website: https://www.projectceti.org/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Fr. Brendan McGuire believes that we still have an opportunity to align AI for the common good, though time is running out. A Silicon Valley executive turned Catholic priest, Fr. Brendan has spent decades as a confidant to the people building frontier technology, and was one of the external contributors to Anthropic’s Claude Constitution. In this episode of Forecast 2050, Nebular General Partner Finn Murphy sits down with Fr. Brendan to discuss Pope Leo XIV's encyclical about AI, Magnifica Humanitas, why AI needs to learn forgiveness, whether AIs have souls, and why we probably have less than a year before recursive self-improvement to ensure these models benefit humanity.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/father-brendan-mcguire-claudes-priestTranscript: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/forecast-2050-episode-11-fr-brendanChapters:00:00 Intro01:45 Silicon Valley Tech Exec to Man of the Cloth08:10 We Need Smart AI Regulation11:46 The Pope's Warning: Don't Build a New AI Tower of Babel19:10 Why AI Needs to Learn Forgiveness27:26 What Hugging Face Shows About AI Morality31:56 Do AIs Have Souls? Would We Baptise An Alien?40:06 Watching Others Die Puts the AI Doomers In Perspective44:20 Why Anthropic Asked the Church for Help 53:39 AI Doesn't Have to Be Winner-Takes-All 58:23 We Have Less Than a Year to Shape AI's Morality before RSI01:02:23 Tolkien Morality vs Game of Thrones BrutalityFr. Brendan McGuire is an engineer turned Silicon Valley executive turned Catholic priest at St. Simon Parish in Los Altos, CA. He is an external contributor to Anthropic's Claude Constitution.Fr. Brendan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/frbrendanmcguire/St. Simon Parish: https://stsimon.church/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next. Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Forecast 2050 Season 2 has arrived with a brand new set of conversations with the thinkers, founders, and investors shaping the next 25 years. Hosted by Nebular General Partner Finn Murphy.Guests:Fr. Brendan McGuireDavid GruberGen. David PetraeusWalter Goodwin & Sir Robin SaxbyYi-Ling LiuLaura KreidbergPatrick McGeeFrancesco SciortinoAdrian WoolfsonFrancis FukuyamaFinn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Forecast 2050 on X: https://x.com/forecast2050Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Enveda Founder and CEO Viswa Colluru believes we have been looking for new medicines in the wrong places for decades.In the Season 1 finale of Forecast 2050, I sat down with Viswa and Pablo Lubroth, VP of Special Projects at Enveda, to discuss why 9 in 10 drugs fail in clinical trials despite Big Pharma spending $276 billion in annual R&D, how AI is finally unlocking 99% of nature's chemistry that we've haven't been able to read, why the incentive structure of biotech capital markets is actively bad for patients, why insisting on understanding how a drug works actually slows down drug discovery, why aging may not be inevitable, and why mental health is going to be the defining medical crisis of the next 25 years.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/3dc95f79-4a7e-4c80-9630-970c1e6e2117Transcript (with helpful links!): https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/beb7222d-efd1-472b-85be-09d7a7faf1a5Chapters:00:00 Intro01:09 The Quintessential Problem With Drug Discovery04:57 Pablo’s Journey to Enveda06:29 Insisting on Understanding Biological Mechanisms Slows Down Drug Discovery09:39 Science Has Been Divorced From Human Experience12:22 Scientific Reductionism Has Not Led to Better Drugs19:31 Lessons Learned From Big Pharma Missing Out On GLP-1s22:11 Capital Markets Disinventivize Risk-Taking and Harm Patients28:12 How to Prioritize Which Illnesses to Cure33:38 Prediction and Prevention is a Better Strategy Than Treatment38:27 Drugs to Make Us Limitless Like Bradley Cooper42:53 Aging is Not Inevitable43:34 Everyone Has a Chinese Peptide Guy50:13 The Loon Shots for 205052:39 Mental Health Will be The Biggest Challenge for 205054:46 The AI Revolution in MedicineViswa Colluru is the Founder & CEO of Enveda, a clinical-stage biotech company using AI to discover new drugs from nature. He built Enveda from $55K of personal savings into a unicorn with over $500M raised and multiple assets in clinical trials. Before founding Enveda, Viswa was the first Innovation Scientist and Product Manager at Recursion Pharmaceuticals. He holds a PhD in immuno-oncology from UW-Madison.Pablo Lubroth is a VP of Special Projects at Enveda and the Co-Founder & Editor of Decoding Bio. He previously built and led the biotech practice at Hummingbird Ventures and co-hosts the annual AI x Bio Summit at the NYSE. Pablo holds degrees in Neuropharmacology and Biochemical Engineering from UCL and an MPhil in Bioscience Enterprise from the University of Cambridge.Viswa on X: https://x.com/viswacolluruPablo on X: https://x.com/pablolubrothEnveda: https://enveda.comDecoding Bio: https://www.decodingbio.comForecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next. Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.

Devon Zuegel believes America has been building cities wrong for decades. She grew up spending summers in Chautauqua, an intellectual community in western New York where four generations of her family shared a household and she knew her neighbors better than the ones at home in California. Now she's building a village called Esmeralda 90 minutes north of San Francisco to prove that formula can be replicated.I sat down with Devon in San Francisco to talk about harnessing urban planning as a powerful technological force for good, age-segregation in America and the impending population crisis, and why we need more incredible cities popping up across the country over the next 25 years.Extended Show Notes: https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/8bcb1293-d2f5-4c6c-a133-8a6d0826b839Transcript (with helpful links!): https://finnmurphyirl.substack.com/p/forecast-2050-episode-7-devon-zuegel?r=25ihqz&triedRedirect=trueChapters:00:00 Intro01:07 Chautauqua Inspires Esmeralda03:02 Cities Are A Technology06:33 The Autonomous Vehicle Takeover10:02 The New Multigenerational Society13:29 American Colleges Make the Economy Dynamic, but Break Up Families17:39 Remote Work and the Expansion of the Metropolis19:55 A Real Alternative to the Suburb/City Dilemma22:21 Real Life Is The Classroom26:04 Esmeralda’s Open Door Policy27:59 Making Cities Worth Living In32:51 The NIMBY Problem35:10 The Digital-Physical Divergence38:29 The Cities That Have Gotten It Right BeforeDevon Zuegel is the founder and president of the Esmeralda Institute, where she is building Esmeralda, a village of the future just 90 minutes north of San Francisco envisioned as a Chautauqua for Silicon Valley.Devon on X: https://x.com/devonzuegelDevon’s Personal Site: https://devonzuegel.com/Esmeralda Institute: https://esmeralda.org/Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next. Finn on X: https://x.com/FinnMurphy12Finn on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finn-murphy-16160465/Nebular is a venture capital firm based in New York City. Head to nebular.vc for more info.