The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

In this episode of The Decisive, host Paul Smith is joined by fellow economists Andrew Harker and Joe Hayes to discuss for the final PMI in Focus episode of the year. The team first steps back to explore the underlying principles of the Purchasing Managers' Indices. Andrew explains how the PMIs' consistent methodology fills data gaps in markets where economic information is hard to come by, from Myanmar and Lebanon to sub-Saharan Africa. Paul makes the case for timeliness, freedom from revisions and signal quality as the keys to assessing current economic conditions with confidence. Joe describes how the data's cross-country comparability supports hypothetical systematic trading strategies for sector, country, equity and fixed income rotation. The conversation then turns to current conditions. The J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI Output Index eased from 54.3 in September to 53.2 in October, its first decline in seven months, but remained historically strong. The U.S. continues to lead developed markets and India is outperforming among the largest emerging economies, while Australia, Canada and Brazil recorded contractions. Input cost inflation has picked back up as energy prices rise amid the ongoing Middle East war, and global manufacturing new orders have run above their long-run average in almost every month of 2026. Survey comments, however, point to precautionary stockpiling, raising questions about how durable the expansion will prove. Looking ahead to 2027, the team reviews the latest results from the survey of PMI panelists conducted three times a year, which show business activity sentiment at a four-year low, inflation concerns at their highest since early 2023 and employment expectations at a record low outside the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic. One bright spot: optimism around capital and research and development investment strengthened, potentially reflecting AI development, a topic the team plans to explore in greater depth in early 2027. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Sector allocation during the business cycle using supply-side PMI® data Using PMI® data to optimize small and mid-cap portfolio exposure Click here for our strategic themes report for 2027 For S&P Global subscribers (login required): 2027: The Great Reconfiguration Monthly Macro Monitor Policy rate prospects Credits: Host: Paul Smith Guests: Andrew Harker, Joe Hayes Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun 

Asia-Pacific growth is slowing, but the slowdown is neither uniform nor severe. In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam talks with Ahmad Mobeen, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about the forces behind the region's uneven outlook.   On one side are AI investment, electronics exports and domestic demand. On the other are higher energy and freight costs, currency pressures, tighter financial conditions and a worsening El Niño. Ahmad explains which economies are best placed, which are most exposed and which signals will show whether the outlook is stabilizing or getting worse.   Listen to learn: How long AI investment and electronics exports can keep supporting South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam How higher energy, freight and insurance costs and currency pressures are reaching Asia-Pacific economies, and where exposure is greatest How India's and Indonesia's outlooks compare on inflation, currencies and investor confidence Why food prices are such an important channel for El Niño risk, and which agriculture-heavy markets are most exposed Which indicators to watch to judge whether the outlook is stabilizing or getting worse More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Global Economic Outlook: October 2026 Picture This: Super El Niño Spurs Stagflationary Impulse in the Global Economy Geopolitical Risk Brief: October 2026 For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Black Sea and Sea of Azov shipping blockade: Wider impact on agricultural consumers El Niño 2026–27: Agriculture, macroeconomic and policy implications for APAC Policy rate prospects Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Ahmad Mobeen Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun 

U.S. consumers are unhappy about the economy, but they keep spending. With prices rising, savings falling and credit card balances growing, how long can that last? And what will this holiday shopping season tell us about the year ahead?   Last year's holiday shopping episode found consumers "following their wallets and not their fears." This episode checks how well that view held up. It starts with a look back at last year's outlook, then turns to what is keeping spending going now and the risks that could test it in 2027.   Host Kristen Hallam welcomes back Michael Zdinak, economics director, Consumer Markets at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Drawing on his recent talks at the HIRI Home Improvement Insights Summit and the National Association for Business Economics conference, Michael explains why U.S. consumer spending remains soft but steady—neither booming nor busting—and why he wouldn't bet against shoppers this holiday season.   More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Global Economic Outlook: October 2026 Picture This: Why mid-cost metros are winning the US jobs race US sees growth surge outpace rivals, but also reports higher inflationary pressures For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Inflation bites into consumers' Halloween purchasing power Policy rate prospects Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Michael Zdinak Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun 

AI and cloud computing are fueling a global wave of data center construction. But investment plans alone won't deliver operating capacity. Where can developers secure the power, water, permits and community support needed to bring projects online? Our previous episode explored the AI data center expansion through three lenses: its contribution to US economic growth, the constraints on construction, and Europe's policy and security risks. This episode takes a deeper dive into construction, moving from that broader investment and risk picture to a closer look at regional building trends, project delivery challenges and developers' responses. Host Kristen Hallam welcomes back Jeannine Cataldi, associate director of Global Construction at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Drawing on her team's new series of reports, Jeannine examines why construction growth is expected to slow—not stop—and how infrastructure constraints are reshaping the global data center footprint. In this episode: North America's construction surge: Why grid connections, equipment lead times and permitting could slow development, and how developers are pursuing on-site power and partnerships with energy providers. Latin America's growth prospects: What makes São Paulo and Querétaro attractive, and how renewable energy, connectivity and government support are shaping opportunities elsewhere in the region. Water and community acceptance: How closed-loop cooling, reclaimed wastewater and greater transparency can help developers address local concerns. Europe and Asia-Pacific's delivery challenges: Why a completed building may still face a long wait for power, and how resource constraints are influencing site selection. The shift beyond established hubs: Why secondary markets are attracting investment—and the trade-offs developers face when contractor pools and utilities are less developed. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: How AI Is Reshaping the Global Economic Outlook Picture This: An Uneven AI Transition Economies central to AI development drive global manufacturing growth For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Latin America's data centers policy Data centers in Europe: Boost to construction, power and water constraints Data centers in the Americas: Opportunities and challenges for the construction industry Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Jeannine Cataldi Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun 

Data centers have become one of the most visible symbols of the global AI investment boom. But turning ambitious plans into operational capacity will depend on far more than demand for computing power. In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with three S&P Global Market Intelligence experts about the economic, construction, policy and security risks shaping the expansion of AI infrastructure.  Jeannine Cataldi, associate director for Construction, examines the practical constraints facing data center projects, including access to power, water, land, critical materials and skilled labor. She explains how rising costs, regulatory scrutiny and community opposition could redirect investment from established hubs toward secondary markets with more predictable development pathways. Bibianna Norek, principal analyst for Europe/CIS Country Risk, explores Europe's efforts to balance AI investment with regulation, sustainability requirements and local planning rules. She also discusses the growing importance of social license and the physical security risks facing data centers as they become increasingly important pieces of critical infrastructure. Ben Herzon, co-head of U.S. Economics, assesses the AI investment cycle's contribution to US economic growth. Although AI remains a relatively small part of the overall economy, its rapid expansion has become a significant driver of business investment—and a potential source of broader market risk if expectations about future profitability are revised. Listen to learn: How infrastructure constraints may shift investment into new regions and secondary markets How community opposition and geopolitical tensions are changing the security environment Why a reassessment of AI company valuations could matter more to the US economy than a slowdown in construction More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: How AI Is Reshaping the Global Economic Outlook Picture This: An Uneven AI Transition Geopolitical Risk Brief: September 2026 For S&P Global subscribers (login required): SCENARIO: Uneven AI Transition Data centers in Europe: Boost to construction, power and water constraints Data centers in the Americas: Opportunities and challenges for the construction industry Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guests: Jeannine Cataldi, Bibianna Norek, Ben Herzon Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun 

Higher sovereign bond yields are raising the cost of money across the global economy, with significant implications for emerging markets. In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Thea Fourie, Head of Middle East and Africa Insights and Analysis at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about the forces keeping borrowing costs elevated and why some economies are better positioned than others to withstand the pressure. The conversation also explores the opportunities and transition risks created by artificial intelligence. Thea discusses how gaps in infrastructure, digital access, workforce skills and capital could widen the divide between economies—and what governments and businesses can do to improve AI readiness. She also previews El Niño as a key risk to watch in 2027, with potential consequences for growth, inflation, interest rates and government support. In this episode, we discuss: Why sovereign bond yields have reached multi-decade highs How higher borrowing costs affect governments, businesses and households What makes some African and Middle Eastern economies more resilient than others Why electricity, digital access and workforce skills are central to AI readiness More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Picture This: Sovereign yields have risen to multi-decade highs in major markets Picture This: Super El Niño Spurs Stagflationary Impulse in the Global Economy Global Economic Outlook: September 2026 For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Sovereign yield FAQs: Increases, implications and indicators of crises Impact of super El Niño Super El Niño 2026-27: Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Thea Fourie Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun 

A potential Super El Niño could be far more than a weather event. It could become a global supply-side shock, disrupting food production, energy systems, mining, transport and trade while adding to inflation and political instability. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, adapted from a Sept. 9 S&P Global Market Intelligence client webinar, experts examine how extreme weather could compound existing pressures across Asia-Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the wider global economy. Listen to learn: Why a Super El Niño could produce a synchronized shock across agriculture, energy and logistics Why food prices—especially rice, wheat, cocoa, vegetable oil and sugar—are a critical channel into inflation, household spending and policy intervention Where drought, flooding and water stress pose the greatest risks to hydropower, mining, manufacturing and export infrastructure Which markets warrant close monitoring Which indicators companies should monitor over the next 90 days to judge whether risks are stabilizing or escalating More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Picture This: Super El Niño Spurs Stagflationary Impulse in the Global Economy Geopolitical Risk Brief: September 2026 Global Economic Outlook: September 2026 For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Impact of super El Niño Super El Niño 2026-27: Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa El Niño 2026–27: Agriculture, macroeconomic and policy implications for APAC Credits: Host: Susan Minio Guests: Justin Valentino, Ahmad Mobeen, Martin Roberts Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun 

The 2026 US midterm elections will shape control of Congress, influence policymaking at the federal and state levels, and help set the political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential race.   In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with John Raines, Head of North America Country Risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about how scenario-based analysis can provide a more useful view of the elections than headline polling alone. They examine the forces affecting key congressional and gubernatorial races, including the cost of living, energy prices, trade policy and growing debate over AI and data centers.   Kristen and John explore potential outcomes for the House and Senate and what each could mean for the US policy environment. Topics include the outlook for taxation, regulation, permitting, immigration enforcement and government spending, as well as the potential for legislative gridlock, funding disputes and increased congressional oversight. The episode also considers polling limitations, the possibility of delayed or contested results, and the implications for businesses navigating continued political uncertainty.   Listen to learn: Why election analysis benefits from scenarios rather than a single forecast What makes the 2026 midterms significant for US federal and state policy Which economic and policy issues could shape voter decisions Why businesses may need to prepare for several possible policy environments More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Geopolitical Risk Brief: September 2026 Picture This: 2026 US Midterm Elections Could Reshape Policy Risk US flash PMI signals fastest growth for over five years in September For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Scenario analysis of US midterm elections Middle East war Policy rate prospects Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: John Raines Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun 

In this episode of The Decisive, host Paul Smith is joined by fellow economists Andrew Harker and Tim Moore to discuss the latest Purchasing Managers' Index data and what it reveals about the global economy, regional growth trends and construction-sector momentum. Despite persistent headwinds — including geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, supply chain disruption and unsettled bond markets — global business activity has shown notable resilience. The discussion explores the factors supporting growth across services and manufacturing, while also examining why business confidence remains subdued despite stronger output. The episode also looks at PMI coverage across the Middle East, including signs of improving momentum in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The conversation highlights the launch of the alrajhi capital Saudi Construction Index, which provides new monthly insight into residential, nonresidential and infrastructure activity in the region's largest construction market. Paul, Andrew and Tim also compare Saudi construction trends with long-running construction PMI surveys in Europe and the UK, where housing activity remains under pressure from cautious demand, higher financing costs and economic uncertainty. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: GCC economies demonstrate resilience in August Global Economic Outlook: September 2026 Click here for the latest PMI Pulse data wrap For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Monthly Macro Monitor Middle East war Policy rate prospects Credits: Host: Paul Smith Guests: Andrew Harker, Tim Moore Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun 

In this episode of The Decisive, Kristen Hallam speaks with Ken Wattret, Vice President of Global Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, who answers frequently asked questions shaping the macroeconomic outlook: why sovereign yields have been rising, whether AI-driven productivity gains could lower inflation and policy rates, and what a weaker US dollar could mean for the global economy. This conversation was recorded in May 2026, and the questions are still top of mind today.   Ken explains that sovereign bond yields have moved higher as markets reassess inflation risks, central bank policy expectations and the sustainability of public finances. Higher energy prices have lifted inflation expectations, while concerns about second-round effects — from input costs to food prices — have added pressure. At the same time, investors are increasingly focused on high budget deficits and rising debt burdens, which may require higher returns to hold sovereign bonds.   The conversation then turns to the UK, where sovereign yields have risen more than in other G7 markets. Ken highlights the UK's persistent inflation challenge, the prospect of renewed Bank of England rate hikes, elevated public debt and lingering investor sensitivity after the gilt-market volatility of 2022.   Kristen and Ken also discuss whether an AI-driven productivity pickup could eventually lead to lower inflation and central bank policy rates. Ken describes this as an active and complex debate, especially in the US. While AI investment may support stronger productivity, he cautions that demand linked to AI spending has already increased, while the productivity gains have not yet been fully realized.   Finally, the episode examines the US dollar. Ken explains that the dollar had weakened notably before rebounding during the early stages of the Middle East conflict, as safe-haven flows returned. Looking through near-term volatility, he says several fundamentals — including the dollar's still-high valuation, persistent US current account deficits and expected shifts in interest-rate differentials — point to further depreciation over time. A weaker dollar could help some economies offset imported inflation from higher energy prices, but for the US, the impact would be more mixed, particularly if the decline were sharp.   More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: How AI Is Reshaping the Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: August 2026 Picture This: US-Japan Yen intervention signals growing concern over global financial stability For S&P Global subscribers (login required): How El Niño will impact growth and inflation across major Latin American economies Policy rate prospects Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Ken Wattret Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun