Conflict, Power & Persuasion

Olivier Sibony is a professor, author, and advisor whosework focuses on strategic decision-making and the design of better decision processes. He is a Professor of Strategy at HEC Paris and an Associate Fellow at Oxford University’s Saïd Business School. Before moving into academia, he spent 25 years with McKinsey & Company, where he was a Senior Partner and held leadership roles in the firm’s strategy practice.He is the author of You’re About to Make a Terrible Mistake!, and the co-author, with Daniel Kahneman and Cass Sunstein, of Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment. His recent work examines human decision-making in the age of artificial intelligence, including what AI may improve, what it maydistort, and where human responsibility still matters.In this episode of Conflict, Power & Persuasion, Olivierhelps unpack a topic that sits right beside cognitive bias, but is probably much less familiar: noise.Some topics discussed include:• How Olivier’s work as a strategy consultant led him tostudy why smart people make bad decisions.• Why real-world mistakes are rarely caused by one isolatedbias.• The target analogy from Noise, and how it helps explainaccuracy, bias, and unwanted variability.• Why judges, doctors, forecasters, mediators, negotiators,and other professionals may reach very different conclusions from the sameinformation.• Why noise often goes unnoticed unless we deliberately lookfor it.• Why the difference between rules and standards matterswhen drafting policies, agreements, and other decision frameworks.• Why mediation and negotiation raise a difficult question:what exactly is the target we are trying to hit?• How AI may reduce some forms of judgement error whileraising hard questions about dignity, accountability, procedural justice, andhuman responsibility.And much more. Links and Resources·       Olivier Sibony’s Website ·       OlivierSibony’s Books ·    Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman, OlivierSibony, and Cass R. Sunstein ·       You’re About to Make a Terrible Mistake! by Olivier Sibony·       OlivierSibony’s Recent Work on Human Decision-Making and Artificial Intelligence

Federico Varese is a Professor of Criminology at the University of Oxford and a Senior Research Fellow at Nuffield College. His work focuses on organised crime as a system of governance, examining how criminal groups emerge, expand, and adapt across different societies. He has written extensively on the Russian mafia, Italian mafia groups, Somali piracy, the migration and evolution of mafia organisations, and the use of social network analysis to understand criminal behaviour. His recent projects include research on gang governance in the UK, cybercrime markets, illicit financial networks, and the global market for substandard medicines. He is the author of several books, including The Russian Mafia, Mafias on the Move, Mafia Life, and Russia in Four Criminals.  Federico’s research and commentary have appeared across leading media platforms, including The Economist, the BBC, The Guardian, and The New York Times.In this episode of Conflict, Power, and Persuasion, FedericoVarese takes us inside the hidden machinery of mafia governance; how these groups rise, rule, and reveals their negotiation and power strategies along the way. Some topics discussed include: • What counts as organised crime, and the three core functions these groups serve in society.• How mafia organisations like the Ndrangheta end up performing state-like roles in protection, dispute resolution, and governance.• The global scale of organised crime, and why tens of millions of people live under the rule of criminal governance.• How weak justice systems, slow courts, and limited access to social services create conditions for organised crime to take hold.• What the origins of mafia groups reveal; from shifts out of feudal systems to the shared rules and doctrines that underpin membership across cultures.• Why effective reintegration after conflict is critical to prevent armed groups from entering into organised crime.• What Federico’s research on mafia behaviour reveals about negotiation, from informational power and credible commitments to trust, respect, reputation, and the ways criminal groups influence others without relying solely on violence.And much more…Links: Federico Varese’s Website : https://federicovarese.com/Mafias on the Move (book) : https://www.amazon.com/dp/0691128553Mafia Life: Love, Death and Money at the Heart of Organised Crime - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0791KTC9KRussia in Four Criminals (latest book):https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DFDPDWM7Latin America Citizen Security Survey onhttps://www.iadb.org/en/news/citizen-security-latin-america-and-caribbean

Sue Williams is one of the world’s most experienced hostage negotiators. A former senior detective at Scotland Yard, she led both the Kidnap and Hostage Crisis Negotiation Units and played a central role in the UK’s national crisis response to overseas abductions -regularly advising Prime Ministers and senior ministers during high-stakes incidents. Over her career, she has helped resolve hundreds of hostage situations - on land, at sea, and in conflict zones.Sue is an Associate Fellow at Oxford University’s Saïd Business School, where she teaches negotiation strategy through the lens of crisis negotiation. She also lectures at Harvard University and works with humanitarian actors on crisis planning and response. Awarded the Queen’s Police Medal for her service, she now advises private organizations, companies, and families navigating critical incidents such as extortion, cyber threats, and abductions.In this episode of Conflict Power and Persuasion, Sue, takes us from the front lines of international hostage cases to the world of business - revealing the deep overlap between crisis negotiation and strategic leadership.Some topics discussed include…• Her personal approach to preparation before entering high-stakes negotiations• Why establishing proof of life is a critical early step• The danger of labelling individuals as “hostages” -and the importance of humanizing them to build empathy• How hostage negotiation dynamics have evolved, including the impact of copycat scenarios and modern communication channels• Practical strategies for de-escalation in volatile situations• Which crisis negotiation skills translate effectively into business or workplace contexts• The ongoing need to build and maintain trust throughout the negotiation process• The critical role of personal security planning and mitigation training in high-risk environments• And much more…Links:Pip decks Negotiation Tactics: Explore Negotiation Tactics – a deck co-developed by Sue, applying negotiation tactics to everyday decision-making.

Ken Cloke is a globally recognized mediator, dialogue facilitator, and conflict resolution systems designer with over 40 years of experience. As Director of the Center for Dispute Resolution, he specializes in resolving complex disputes across sectors, including workplace, public policy, and cross-cultural dialogues. A co-founder of Mediators Beyond Borders, Ken has worked in over 25 countries and is the author of several influential books, including Mediating Dangerously, The Dance of Opposites, and his most recent work, The Magic in Mediation. He serves as an adjunct professor at institutions such as Pepperdine and USC, holds a Ph.D. from UCLA, and is a pioneer in designing preventative conflict resolution systems. A sought-after speaker and thought leader, Ken has dedicated his career to advancing innovative, inclusive approaches to conflict resolution worldwide.   Some Topics Discussed Include:  Murray Bowen’s Family Systems Theory: the tension between individualization and integration in resolving conflicts. The power of ubuntu Three types of questions to navigate disputes: which to embrace, which to avoid, and why they matter. Chaos, complexity, and phase shifts: why abandoning old notions of the world is key to resolving disputes. Transformation vs. transcendence: understanding the differences and how to achieve them. The single best question to ask when someone is angry. Three interest-based approaches to redefine democracy and politics. Mediating grief, loss, and dying What is an enemy? And much more! Links: Ken Cloke's Website Ken Cloke's Books on Amazon Order Out of Chaos: Man’s New Dialogue with Nature was written by Ilya Prigogine and Isabelle Stengers Transformative Experience written by L.A. Paul    Mediators Beyond Borders

Katrina Abatis is a Senior Program Officer in the Mediation Support Team at the Center for Security Studies (CSS), a think tank at ETH Zürich. She is the author of the paper featured in this episode, "Inviting the Elephant into the Room: Culturally Oriented Mediation and Peace Practice," written as part of the Culture and Religion in Mediation (CARIM) program, a joint project between the CSS and the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA). Zaza Johnson Elsheikh is a commercial, family, and workplace mediator with almost 20 years of experience mediating shareholder disputes in family businesses and inheritance disputes, as well as reconciling complex families. Zaza’s mediation work draws on her experience as a Medical Doctor (1994–2002) and a Clinical Negligence Solicitor (2002–2006) before she became a member of the Centre for Effective Dispute Resolution (CEDR) faculty. Zaza teaches conflict resolution skills to both mainstream and neurodiverse adults and children in schools and top universities in the UK. As President of Belief in Mediation and Arbitration (BIMA), Zaza leads bimonthly Scripture-based Dialogue sessions, such as “Scriptural Guidance on Responding to Toxic Conflicts.” She is also recognized as a Muslim faith leader and has a particular interest in working with vulnerable people of all ages who are susceptible to radicalization and extremism. In this episode of Conflict, Power, and Persuasion, Katrina and Zaza describe the concept of culturally oriented mediation. This approach became apparent to Katrina through Zaza’s sometimes unconventional mediation practices, which she found necessary to effectively address complex cultural disputes in her community and beyond. Some topics discussed include: •Distinguishing between culturally sensitive and culturally oriented mediation approaches •Understanding the manifestations of "shame-triggered violence" in conflicts •Employing "active impartiality" and "hardcore persuasion" to engage conflicting parties •Exploring gender differences in promoting peace and resolving conflict •Unconventional approaches for creating proactive entry points for peace •Addressing how cultural differences can lead to mismatched expectations and conflicts •The urgent need for addressing sexual violence against refugees •The evolving role of culturally oriented mediation in an increasingly polarized world •And much more! Links: ⁠Culturally Oriented Mediation: Inviting the Elephant into the Room (the paper)⁠ ⁠Culturally Oriented Mediation: Inviting the Elephant into the Room (the blog)⁠ ⁠Belief in Mediation and Arbitration (BIMA)⁠ ⁠Collection of Zaza’s YouTube clips discussing culture in mediation⁠ ⁠Deeyah Khan’s documentary film: White Right- Meeting the Enemy⁠

With seven award-nominated albums to his name, Emmanuel has collaborated and performed alongside musical legends like Lauryn Hill, Peter Gabriel, Ed Sheeran, Joss Stone, and Alicia Keys, marking his presence at global events including Nelson Mandela’s 90th Birthday Concert, Live 8, and the One Concert for the Dalai Lama. His journey from child soldier to the world stage is captured in his autobiography and the award-winning documentary "Warchild." Emmanuel’s acting talents were also showcased alongside Reese Witherspoon in "The Good Lie”. As a dedicated peace ambassador, Emmanuel founded Gua Africa (GWA), providing educational support to those affected by war in East Africa, and spearheaded the 'We Want Peace' campaign, securing backing from global figures like George Clooney, Kofi Annan, and Richard Branson. His relentless pursuit of peace has been recognized with numerous awards, including the Vaclav Havel International Prize for Creative Dissent and the Desmond Tutu Reconciliation Award. In this episode of Conflict, Power, and Persuasion, Emmanuel shares lessons and philosophies from his experiences as a refugee and child soldier, as detailed in his new book: My Life is Art. He discusses how life, much like a canvas, is shaped by our actions and experiences, offering his principles for overcoming adversity. Links: Emmanuel's Website Emmanuel's Ted Talk My Life Is Art Emmanuel’s Books on Amazon Gua Africa We Want Peace Campaign Movie: The Good Lie In this podcast, we feature tracks from Emmanuel Jal including 'Warchild' and 'Baaki Wara' from his album 'Warchild.' You can listen to the entire album on Spotify here: Warchild Album on Spotify.

Aqeela Sherrills is a seasoned activist with over three decades of dedication to community safety and healing from violence in underserved areas. In 1992, he notably brokered a historic peace agreement between the rival gangs, the Bloods and the Crips. He's a nationally acknowledged expert in victim services and community-driven public safety. Aqeela co-founded the Community-Based Public Safety Collective and spearheaded the Newark Community Street Team initiative. Under his leadership, Newark saw a significant drop in its homicide rate from 2015 to 2019. Beyond his on-ground efforts, Aqeela has advised The International Association of Chiefs of Police and is renowned for his expertise in gang violence intervention, restorative justice, and trauma healing. He's also a skilled facilitator, life coach, and mediator. In this episode of Conflict, Power, and Persuasion, Aqeela takes us on a journey into the heart of community violence. You can feel his passion as he recounts growing up amidst the turbulent backdrop of the 1980s, in south Los Angeles,  the profound impact it had on him, and his relentless drive to intervene and prevent further community violence. Aqeela has been a trailblazer in this arena for decades, and he shares invaluable insights on effective strategies and the necessary shifts needed to reshape the narrative surrounding street violence.   Links: Malcolm X Autobiography Amer-I-Can Snowfall Series Newark Community Street Team EJ USA Trauma to Trust Initiative  Community Based Public Safety Collective

Dag Nylander is a Norwegian diplomat, and is currently the director the Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution (NOREF). Prior to joining NOREF, he was director and head of the Section for Peace and Reconciliation in the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Throughout his career, he has held several diplomatic positions, most notably as a mediator and Norwegian special envoy to Colombia. From 2010 to 2016 he led the Norwegian facilitation of the peace process between the Colombian government and the FARC. This work built on the foundations laid from 2006 to 2008, when he headed the Norwegian embassy in Bogotá. In 2017 he was appointed the United Nations Secretary-General’s personal representative on the border controversy between Venezuela and Guyana. Dag is a jurist by education and has practiced both as a lawyer and an assistant judge. Some topics discussed include: Dag’s insights on the most crucial actions a mediator can take to ensure a successful outcome. Crafting a secure environment for participants, considering political, legal, and physical aspects. Cultivating trust between the parties and the mediator, and the pivotal role this plays in the mediation's success. Navigating the ethical complexities of stakeholder inclusivity while keeping the process efficient. The transformative impact of placing victims at the heart of peace talks. The necessity of addressing victim justice for enduring peace. An exploration of Track Two diplomacy, its effectiveness, and best practices within peace processes. And much more Links: Out of the Jungle, by Dag Nylander and Tove Gravdal

Alexandra Zimmerman founded and chairs the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Human-Wildlife Conflict Task Force. She's also a member of several IUCN groups, including the Asian Elephant Specialist Group, the Cat Specialist Group, SOS Technical Advisory Board, and the Conservation Advisory Board of Elephant Family. In addition, Alexandra serves as a Senior Advisor on Human-Wildlife Conflict to the World Bank and is a Senior Research Fellow at Oxford University's Wildlife Conservation Research Unit (WildCRU). Some topics discussed include: How human-wildlife conflicts can escalate and when reconciliation becomes essential. The limitations of "cut and paste" solutions, even for identical species in similar regions. Five guiding principles for addressing Human-Wildlife conflict. The collaborative nature of addressing Human-Wildlife issues across sectors and disciplines. The role of Human-Wildlife conflict in peace processes and the unique opportunities it offers. The readiness of the Human-Wildlife Conflict field to tackle the impacts of climate change. The goal of “co-existence” between humans and wildlife, and what it looks like. The importance of bridging the fields of conservation and conflict resolution. And much more! Links: IUCN SSC Human-Wildlife Conflict & Coexistence Specialist Group IUCN Human Wildlife Conflict and Coexistence Library IUCN SSC Guidelines on Human-Wildlife Confl­ict and Coexistence

Jeanne Brett is a highly distinguished and accomplished scholar in the field of dispute resolution. She is the DeWitt W. Buchanan, Jr. Distinguished Professor Emerita of Dispute Resolution and Organizations and the former director of the Kellogg School’s Dispute Resolution Research Center.  Jean’s research has focused on cross-cultural negotiations, the resolution of disputes, and the performance of multicultural teams. Her current work explores culture and negotiation strategies, as well as the interface between AI and negotiations. She is a prolific author of books, journal articles, and negotiation teaching materials, including the award-winning books Getting Disputes Resolved with William Ury and Stephen Goldberg and the single-authored Negotiating Globally. She has initiated and taught Kellogg's MBA courses in negotiations since 1981 and in cross-cultural negotiations since 1994. Her most recent book is Searching for Trust in the Global Economy with Tyree Mitchell. On this episode of Conflict Power and Persuasion, Jeanne shares insights from her pioneering research, which have led to seminal ideas such as Interests, Rights and Power, and Dispute Resolution systems design. She also discusses her current research on negotiation and Artificial Intelligence,as well as exploring the crucial role of trust in negotiations across different cultures.   Links: Getting Disputes Resolved Negotiating Globally Searching for Trust in the Global Economy Rule Makers, Rule Breakers: How Tight and Loose Cultures Wire Our World IAGO⁠ World Values Survey  Grandma Anna Study