The Megabuyte CEOBarometer Podcast

The race for AI computing power is having unexpected consequences, not just for AI businesses, but for the wider technology sector. Customers moving onto Azure in the UK are being told local regions are full, with projects delayed, re-architected or lost. We look at why new data centre capacity is slow to arrive, who gets served first when it runs short, and what it means for pipelines and margins. Software deals came back over the summer, giving the first real evidence of how private equity is judging software since the SaaSpocalypse began. Some established vertical software businesses still command top-of-range multiples, while parts of legal tech have become close to uninvestable for now. If a buyer assessed your business today, would they see a platform built for the next five years or a legacy asset in need of heavy investment? The answer affects valuation and whether a deal gets done at all. To close, we turn to the UK stock market. Another wave of take-privates is under way, yet Softcat has raised around £350m to fund a major US acquisition. We ask what these moves say about the public markets: are they failing technology companies or choosing more carefully which ones to back? And why do scale and a clear shareholder value proposition matter so much to the answer? Timestamps: 2:21 – Podcast updates – What’s changing in 2027: a new Q&A edition built around listeners’ questions, plus shorter rapid-response content on news as it happens. 5:00 – When the cloud runs out of room – Why UK customers are struggling to get Azure capacity for everyday migrations, and what it means for deal pipelines, pricing and margins. 28:00 – The SaaSpocalypse meets the deal data – What the summer’s private equity software deals reveal about which businesses investors will still pay up for. 42:31 – AI-led M&A – Software vendors buying AI capability, and services firms buying data, customers and IP to build out their AI offer. 45:56 – Protecting software value – The AI strategy questions boards should be working through, from market thesis to cost to deliver. 51:10 – Is the UK stock market still open for tech? – Take-privates, Softcat’s fundraise and why scale decides who can still raise money in public markets. About this podcast Our quarterly podcast offers a clear, strategic perspective on the forces shaping the UK tech sector— M&A, capital flows, valuations, AI, and more. Hosted by Megabuyte’s Founder & Chairman, Ian Spence, and Megabuyte’s Head of Research & Consulting, Neel Arampatta, the CEOBarometer is designed for CxOs of scale-ups and mid-market companies who value depth over noise. Find out more at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’. CEOBarometer is now available in video format on Spotify and the Megabuyte YouTube channel, where you can also watch shorter excerpts from our previous episodes.  

This quarter's CEOBarometer examines the market's shift from AI experimentation to more strategic deployment. We explore three areas where that's playing out, and the impact it's having — both good and bad.  First, we look at how AI is advancing beyond bolt-on features to reshape products, business models and ultimately, organisational design. We examine this critical new stage of the ‘AI Goldilocks period’, and what it means as AI strategy cements itself as a CEO- and board-level issue on which long-term shareholder value now depends.  Second, the frontier AI labs are moving into services; Anthropic and OpenAI have launched multi-billion-dollar, private equity-backed services businesses, with Microsoft and AWS close behind. What does it tell us about where value will really be created in the AI economy — and is it a threat or an opportunity for the UK mid-market?  Finally, we mark the SaaSpocalypse at its six-month birthday, exploring why investors remain cautious on traditional software, what an AI moat actually looks like and what leading SaaS CEOs are doing about it. It all comes back to a single strategic choice: over the next decade, does your business sell outcomes, or become part of the infrastructure that enables AI?  Timestamps:    1:00 — The AI Goldilocks period — What's driving the shift from bolt-on AI to business-critical strategy, and the five shifts CEOs need to make. 27:12 — Frontier labs move into services — Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft and AWS commit billions to AI services — threat or opportunity for the UK mid-market? 46:30 — The SaaSpocalypse, six months on — Feature commoditisation, the hunt for a genuine AI moat, and the reset in software valuations and deals. 1:03:31 — What the best CEOs are doing — Turning the wake-up call into opportunity, and the hard questions on pricing, people and product strategy.   About this podcast  Our quarterly podcast offers a clear, strategic perspective on the forces shaping the UK tech sector— M&A, capital flows, valuations, AI, and more.  Hosted by Megabuyte’s Founder & Chairman, Ian Spence, and Megabuyte’s Head of Research & Consulting, Neel Arampatta, the CEOBarometer is designed for CxOs of scale-ups and mid-market companies who value depth over noise. Find out more at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’.  CEOBarometer is now available in video format on Spotify and the Megabuyte YouTube channel, where you can also watch shorter excerpts from our previous episodes. 

This quarter’s CEOBarometer captures a sharp shift in the UK tech landscape, as three powerful forces converge: rising geopolitical uncertainty, a rapid repricing of software driven by AI disruption, and tightening dynamics in private capital markets. While headline growth expectations remain modestly positive, sentiment has deteriorated, sales cycles are lengthening again, and confidence across boards, investors, and buyers is becoming more fragile. Against this backdrop, we explore what’s being described as a “SaaSpocalypse” – not as the end of software, but as a fundamental reset in how value, defensibility, and competitive advantage are assessed in an AI-native world. We examine the growing disconnect between market sentiment and underlying business realities, the implications for valuations and deal activity, and why software transactions are likely to slow significantly as investors reassess risk and long-term strategy. The episode also unpacks the evolving role of private credit and its indirect impact on UK tech, alongside a detailed view on growth expectations, capital markets, private equity, venture activity, and M&A trends. Throughout, the focus is on what this moment demands from leadership teams: a far more rigorous, CEO-led approach to AI strategy, tighter alignment with investors, and a clear-eyed view of where sustainable value will be created as the market moves into a more selective and unforgiving phase.   Timings and topics covered  00:00 - Market Reset: The “Three Horsemen” - Geopolitics, AI-driven software disruption, and private capital dynamics combine to weaken sentiment and reshape the outlook for UK tech. 07:19 - AI, Software & the “SaaS Apocalypse”- What’s really happening behind the AI hype, why software valuations are resetting, and how investor behaviour is shifting. 22:07 - Capital & Strategy Implications - Private debt, leverage, and funding dynamics — plus what boards must do now, with AI strategy becoming a CEO-level priority. 39:15 - Growth & Capital Markets - Updated growth expectations, continued weakness in IPOs and fund-raising, and ongoing de-equitisation trends. 48:30 - Deal Activity: PE, VC & M&A - Bifurcation in private equity, resurgence in AI-led venture funding, and diverging trends across software and ICT services M&A.

This quarter’s CEOBarometer marks the start of a new year with a UK tech sector still operating in a tough environment – but with clearer signals about where value creation will (and won’t) come from over the rest of the decade. Growth across Software and ICT Services remains constrained after a disappointing 2025, capital markets continue to underserve the sector, and deal activity is selective rather than expansive. Against that backdrop, we step back from short-term forecasts and focus on the six strategic themes Megabuyte believes boards must prioritise in 2026 – from AI market impact and pricing models to organic growth, people strategy, and the future shape of M&A. We explore why tactical AI initiatives are no longer enough, how deflationary dynamics are reshaping Software and Services business models, why traditional roll-up strategies face diminishing returns, and what the “AI Goldilocks period” really means for long-term value creation. As ever, we ground the discussion in hard data on growth, valuations, capital flows, private equity, venture capital, and M&A. The episode also looks ahead to Megabuyte’s 2026 events programme, where these themes will be explored in depth across specific markets and sectors. Timings 00:40 – 2026 Key Trends for 2026: Six priorities for boards in 2026, with AI reshaping strategy, pricing, growth, people, and M&A. 22:59 – Growth & Trading: 2025 underdelivered across Software and ICT Services, with modest improvement emerging late in the year. 32:11 – Capital Markets: Valuations remain low, IPO and fund-raising activity scarce, and de-equitisation accelerating. 42:06 – Private Equity: Capital remains available for high-quality assets, but selectivity has increased sharply. 49:42 – Venture Capital: Fewer deals, stable capital volumes, and continued pressure at the early stage. 56:20 – M&A: Lower volumes, reset valuations, and a shift toward more strategic, capability-led deals.

This quarter’s CEOBarometer analyses a UK tech sector showing signs of stabilisation but still struggling to regain pre-COVID momentum. Growth across Software has levelled off while ICT Services remain under pressure, and capital markets and private equity deal flow are subdued. We look at why 2025 has disappointed, what cautious optimism for 2026 looks like, and how vertical focus, disciplined go-to-market execution, and realistic budgeting will define success for companies. Plus, we look ahead to Megabuyte’s 2026 events programme and the State-of-the-Nation event in January, which will set the agenda for tech boardrooms – from AI and growth strategy to financial benchmarking and M&A.   Timestamps: 00:50 - Megabuyte 2026 Events: Preview of the 2026 events programme, including the State-of-the-Nation on 29 Jan. 08:30 - Growth Outlook: Stabilisation without rebound, and what “flat being good” says about 2025 performance. 19:07 - Capital Markets: Minimal IPO and fund-raising activity, and valuations still under pressure. 29:26 - Private Equity, Venture & Growth Capital: Selective investors, continued “flight to quality,” and cautious appetite for mid-market deals. 48:27 - M&A: Deal volumes low but standout assets still command premium multiples; Software outperforming ICT Services. About this podcast Our quarterly podcast offers a clear, strategic perspective on the forces shaping the UK tech sector—M&A, capital flows, valuations, AI, and more. Hosted by Megabuyte’s Founder & Chairman, Ian Spence, and Megabuyte’s Head of Research & Consulting, Neel Arampatta, the CEOBarometer is designed for CxOs of scale-ups and mid-market companies who value depth over noise. Learn how at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’.   Transcript available here or save for offline by hitting 'Download' above

This quarter’s CEOBarometer dives into the realities of a UK tech sector that entered 2025 expecting growth but is instead facing slower trading, elongated sales cycles, and selective capital. We explore the standouts bucking the trend - from ICT players like Wireless Logic to software innovators like Nervecentre and Origin - and unpack how AI adoption, capital market shifts, private equity’s “flight to quality,” and selective M&A are reshaping the landscape. The takeaway? In today’s market, success comes down to sharp positioning, clear focus, and strong execution. Timestamps: 01:16 - Growth Outlook - Who’s outpacing the slowdown and how they’re doing it. 15:11 - AI in Action - MSPs transform with automation; vertical AI gains serious traction. 39:53 - Capital Markets - UK tech stocks surge; could Visma’s IPO land in London? 48.30 - Private Equity, Venture & Growth Capital - Premium deals for top performers despite cautious capital. 54:20 - M&A - Selective buyers, standout valuations, and SS&C’s £800m+ Calastone play. Transcript available here or save for offline by hitting 'Download' above About this podcast Our quarterly podcast offers a clear, strategic perspective on the forces shaping the UK tech sector—M&A, capital flows, valuations, AI, and more. Hosted by Megabuyte’s Founder & Chairman, Ian Spence, and Megabuyte’s Head of Research & Consulting, Neel Arampatta, the CEOBarometer is designed for CxOs of scale-ups and mid-market companies who value depth over noise. Learn how at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’.

This quarter’s CEOBarometer spotlights subdued trading conditions, faltering investment flows, and the selective rise of AI. Organic growth has slowed across the board—Software companies posted 13% growth, while ICT Services lagged at 7%. The deceleration is sharpest in consulting services, where low recurring revenue and discretionary budget cuts have driven many businesses into stagnation. In contrast, recurring revenue models continue to provide resilience in Software, where growth has largely stabilised at pre-COVID levels. Despite these challenges, standout performers in areas like cybersecurity and defence—such as Bridewell, DIGI2AL, and FSP—are still delivering strong double-digit growth, proving that execution and sector positioning remain critical. The investment landscape also reflects mounting caution. UK-listed tech valuations have dipped below 10x EV/EBITDA, IPO activity remains stalled, and private equity deal volumes have halved year-on-year. Meanwhile rising debt levels and cash interest payments continue to cause stress for some. While top-tier software firms continue to command strong multiples, ICT Services valuations—particularly in consulting—have seen a significant reset. Venture funding tells a two-speed story: capital remains available for late-stage, AI-native businesses such as Quantexa and Luminance, but pre-Series A funding has collapsed, narrowing the pipeline for future investment. As the sector recalibrates, this episode offers critical insights into where growth is holding up, where confidence is fading, and what tech leaders need to consider as they navigate another year of cautious optimism and selective momentum. Transcript available here or save for offline by hitting 'Download' above About this podcast Our quarterly podcast offers a clear, strategic perspective on the forces shaping the UK tech sector—M&A, capital flows, valuations, AI, and more. Hosted by Megabuyte’s Founder & Chairman, Ian Spence, and Megabuyte’s Head of Research & Consulting, Neel Arampatta, the CEOBarometer is designed for CxOs of scale-ups and mid-market companies who value depth over noise. Learn how at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’. Skip to: Growth Outlook 01m 37s Capital Markets 22m 20s Private Equity 33m 57s Venture & Growth Capital 55m 56s M&A 01h 01m 18s    

In this month's podcast: As we enter 2025, this month’s Megabuyte CEOBarometer adopts a slightly different format. Like last January’s episode, this month’s show runs to an hour to provide a comprehensive round-up of the past year and set the scene for the year ahead. The podcast begins with a 12-month retrospective, revisiting key technology and growth trends, corporate activity data, and a look back at our 2024 predictions to assess their accuracy. Building on these insights, we then turn to our forward-looking predictions for 2025, offering perspectives on the themes that will shape the year ahead. This month’s predictions touch on all the usual topics covered in the podcast but also feature a focused segment on AI, which remains a pivotal agenda item for UK tech leaders. So, in summary, we were pretty bullish at the start of last year about the outlook for 2024. However, while the year proved stronger than 2023, persistent corporate caution and political uncertainty limited the pace of recovery. Deal activity remained more muted than expected, with capital markets notably poor, while private equity remained relatively robust. Looking ahead, with the exception of capital markets, we expect a gradually improving picture for corporate activity and valuations. This month’s show captures all these themes in detail, providing a balanced look back at 2024 and forward to what lies ahead in 2025. Transcript available here or save for offline by hitting 'Download' above About this podcast The CEOBarometer podcast is a quarterly publication hosted by Ian Spence, Founder and Chairman of Megabuyte. In each episode, Ian provides expert analysis of key trends in UK tech M&A, capital markets, private equity, and venture capital, and explores their implications for the boards of UK tech companies. Megabuyte supports UK scale-up and mid-market Software and ICT Services companies to develop robust growth strategies, understand their competitive landscape and customer sentiment, benchmark their financial performance and valuation, and identify and track M&A targets. Learn how at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’.   Skip to: Tech Trends 01m 05s       - AI Predictions for 2025 04m 50s Growth Outlook 19m 47s Capital Markets 27m 29s Private Equity 37m 00s Venture & Growth Capital 39m 12s M&A 41m 41s 5 Key Recommendations for Boards 44m 16s

In this month's podcast: Finally, some good news! UK tech sector share prices and valuations actually saw some meaningful improvement in November, making it a positive month for the sector across the board. As expected, M&A volumes were strong, boosted by pre-budget deals, with ICT Services activity seeing a particularly notable pop. Private equity had a strong showing too, with a 10% year-on-year rise in deals, driven largely by MBOs making a return after some time. Even the downtrodden venture capital sector had a good month, raising over £500m - its best month since May - thanks to increasingly clear AI drivers. Of course, the capital markets didn’t get the memo and logged yet another month of no meaningful deal activity. Transcript available here or save for offline by hitting 'Download' above About this podcast The CEOBarometer podcast is a monthly publication hosted by Ian Spence, Founder and Chairman of Megabuyte. In each episode, Ian provides expert analysis of key trends in UK tech M&A, capital markets, private equity, and venture capital, and explores their implications for the boards of UK tech companies. Megabuyte supports UK scale-up and mid-market Software and ICT Services companies to develop robust growth strategies, understand their competitive landscape and customer sentiment, benchmark their financial performance and valuation, and identify and track M&A targets. Learn how at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’. Skip to: News Analysis 00m 48s Capital Markets 05m 12s Private Equity 08m 45s Venture & Growth Capital 14m 46s M&A 20m 54s

In this month's podcast: In addition to the usual analysis of corporate activity and valuations, this month’s ‘spotlight’ is on growth trends, providing an overview of current market growth rates, some context on where we are relative to recent highs and lows, and our view on the outlook. In particular, we analyse why, as Software sector growth remains robust, parts of the ICT Services sector still have some way to go. M&A activity received the expected pre-budget boost, though this impact has yet to be fully reflected in the numbers, and private equity activity remained strong across both MBOs and SBOs. In contrast, capital markets saw another weak month, with share prices, corporate activity, and valuations all underwhelming. Venture capital investment remains subdued, though select deals hint at a potential medium-term recovery. With the budget behind us, modest growth should resume as decision-making picks up. Transcript available here or save for offline by hitting 'Download' above About this podcast The CEOBarometer podcast is a monthly publication hosted by Ian Spence, Founder and Chairman of Megabuyte. In each episode, Ian provides expert analysis of key trends in UK tech M&A, capital markets, private equity, and venture capital, and explores their implications for the boards of UK tech companies. Megabuyte supports UK scale-up and mid-market Software and ICT Services companies to develop robust growth strategies, understand their competitive landscape and customer sentiment, benchmark their financial performance and valuation, and identify and track M&A targets. Learn how at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’. Skip to: News Analysis 00m 48s Capital Markets 11m 26s Private Equity 14m 11s Venture & Growth Capital 21m 49s M&A 27m 34s