The Science and Skill of Superforecasting (#230)

Imagine how much better your decision making would be if you could better predict the future. It’s possible, with superforecasting. In fact, a team of superforecasters won a forecasting tournament conducted by the U.S. intelligence community. What do superforecasters actually do, and how can you become a better forecaster? Don’t miss this talk with superforecaster, Warren Hatch.

Is there another planet in the universe like Earth? Is there life elsewhere? And if so, how advanced is it? Join us as Sara Seager — astronomer, planet hunter, MIT professor, and MacArthur Genius Grant recipient — presents a mind-blowing progress report on the rigorous search for Earth’s planetary twin and other life in the universe.

Our cities need to be revitalized to make them more appealing. But how? Seth Pinsky, CEO of 92NY and former CEO of New York City's Economic Development Corporation, has answers. Here, he talks knowingly about creative ways to stimulate growth; how to combat the skepticism that government can deliver on its promises; the importance of what he calls magnetic infrastructure; and more.

China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are all determined to subvert America. Nobody knows more about this than former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who has worked for three presidents and five secretaries of state. Hear what this foreign policy expert says America must do to remain dominant, how AI will impact the world order, and much more.

Ever wonder why some movies and TV shows are so powerful and gripping? What makes for a deeply compelling story? Why George Clooney is so popular? Listen as Neal Baer, Hollywood TV writer and producer extraordinaire, talks about the craft and magic of storytelling in a way that will benefit almost everyone — including you.

Eric Schmidt is astonishing. Here, the former CEO of Google and one of the world’s most brilliant technologists talks with visionary wisdom about Artificial Intelligence and its impact on business, healthcare, warfare, climate change, human survival and more. Don’t miss this chance to learn how AI powers we have not yet imagined will affect our daily lives.Eric’s new book, which is fascinating, is Genesis.

Chew on this: Approximately 200 billion animals are raised for food each year, often in horrific conditions. The contribution of these animals to climate change is greater than the emissions of all the cars being driven around the world. There is a solution. Listen, as Princeton bioethicist Peter Singer explains both the problem and a simple answer.

For better and for worse, artificially intelligent communication is inexorably making its way into medical care. How will this affect the doctor-patient relationship? Can AI convey human empathy and emotion? What will the impact be on your health? According to Dr. Jon Reisman, there’s no turning back. Listen, and learn what the future will hold.

It’s not easy for huge, breakthrough ideas — the kind that truly change the world — to see the light of day. Here, physicist, entrepreneur and author Safi Bahcall talks in detail about the creativity and determination required, plus the obstacles to overcome, and cites fascinating examples including James Bond, Lipitor, Apple, Airbnb and others. 

If there’s such a thing as a secret to success, Marshall Goldsmith knows it. Known as the world’s top executive leadership coach, he’s worked with many CEOs, founders and billionaires and has a deep understanding of how to change behaviors, how to lead, and ultimately, how to succeed in both your career and life. Listen and benefit from what he knows.