Probability Stacking and Edges

📈 First Video Podcast, SPX Forecast After 9-Day Rally, Iron Condor Adjustments & Market ForecastsWatch the video here: https://youtu.be/Pk22BcCBfn0Welcome to episode 150 of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast! 🎉This week’s special episode marks our very first video podcast — now available on YouTube and your favorite audio platforms like Apple and Spotify. If you're watching on YouTube, don’t forget there are 149 audio-only episodes full of SPX options strategies, technical analysis, and educational content.In this episode, Eric breaks down:🔴 Why he’s wearing a red shirt (hint: SPX is red today)📉 A recap of last week’s historic 9-day rally and what’s driving current volatility🧠 A live walkthrough of his adjusted SPX Iron Condor trade and how he managed risk after the rally🔍 Key SpotGamma levels for SPX (Call Wall, Put Wall, and Volume Triggers)📊 A look at Alpha Crunching’s updated weekly SPX forecast and how traders can use it to anticipate market momentum⚙️ How Triumph Rates and strategy filters guide potential trades like call debit spreads🗓️ A quick rundown of this week’s economic events including the FOMC meeting and PMI data📉 Why Eric is still trading small size below the 200-day moving average and how he’s combining mechanical trades with Iron Condors for incomeWhether you’re trading SPX options full-time or just learning the ropes, this episode is packed with practical market context, chart visuals, and strategy adjustments to help navigate current conditions.👇 Resources & Links Mentioned in This EpisodeAlpha Crunching Weekly Forecast Indicator:https://www.tella.tv/video/weekly-forecast-heikin-ashi-for-profitable-trend-trades-cxunhttps://www.alphacrunching.com (Use code SPX50 for 50% discount)Alpha Crunching Call Debit Spread: https://www.alphacrunching.com/blog/call-spread-option-strategySpotGamma.com for Call and Put WallsEconomic Calendar:https://www.forexfactory.com/calendarWant to connect? Find me on X:Eric O'Rourke: https://twitter.com/OptionAssassinAfter that, join other listeners at https://StockMarketOptionsTrading.net and join the community for free right now where there are daily posts with clues to the where the market may be headed next. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

Welcome back to the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast! I'm your host, Eric O'Rourke, and in this episode I break down the latest market action, key technical levels, and how I’m trading SPX options during this volatile stretch.📉 This week, the S&P500 dropped over 2% to start the week as uncertainty around tariffs continues to dominate headlines. I talk through how I’m navigating the range-bound market with iron condors and why I'm keeping trades short and wide.📊 I also share insights from Alpha Crunching’s Weekly Triumph Rate (WTR), which remains below 50% across the board — a rare occurrence signaling more weakness under the hood.📈 We take a closer look at:Real-time inflation data from TruflationHow truflation compares to CPI and what it may signal before official reportsHistorical SPY reactions to Fed rate cuts, with a helpful chart from TrendSpider🗓️ Plus, I touch on key economic events to watch this week including flash PMI, durable goods, and consumer sentiment.📌 Resources mentioned:🔗 Alpha Crunching Weekly Triumph Rate🔗 Truflation Dashboard🔗 TrendSpider Rate Cut Chart Tweet🔗 Grok on xAI (for research)Thanks for listening! Be sure to subscribe and check out AlphaCrunching.com for data-backed trade ideas and SPX forecast tools. Get 50% off your first month or year!

In this episode, Eric recaps last week's wild ride in the S&P 500, driven by tariff headlines, a surprise 90-day pause, and a sharp oversold rally. He covers key economic data—including CPI, PPI, and sentiment numbers—and why they paint a mixed inflation picture. Eric also shares the latest SPX levels he's watching, how he's positioning with an iron condor, and what Alpha Crunching's updated weekly forecast reveals about the current choppy trend. This is still a headline-driven market, and patience remains key.Want to connect? Find me on X:Eric O'Rourke: https://twitter.com/OptionAssassinAfter that, join other listeners at https://StockMarketOptionsTrading.net and join the community for free right now where there are daily posts with clues to the where the market may be headed next. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

In this episode, Eric discusses the sharp market selloff following the surprise "Liberation Day" announcement, ongoing tariff drama, and how global markets are reacting. He breaks down key SPX levels to watch (4900, 5000, 5100), headline-driven price action, and what the Fed’s emergency closed-door meeting might mean for traders. Eric also revisits a simple bear market hedge from a previous episode, explains why he's currently sitting in cash, and shares what he's watching for potential long-term buys. It’s a fast-moving week—stay nimble and patient.Want to connect? Find me on X:Eric O'Rourke: https://twitter.com/OptionAssassinAfter that, join other listeners at https://StockMarketOptionsTrading.net and join the community for free right now where there are daily posts with clues to the where the market may be headed next. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading podcast, Eric welcomes back guest Brian Terry to discuss navigating the current choppy and volatile market. They cover the recent 10% correction in the S&P 500, key economic events for the week (including reciprocal tariffs and Powell’s upcoming comments), and how market levels like the 200-day moving average are influencing trading sentiment.Brian shares how he's using in-the-money covered calls to generate income with downside protection, even during pullbacks. They dive into sector rotation—highlighting strong performers like gold (GLD), utilities, and dividend stocks—and explain the mechanics behind selecting trades with favorable risk/reward profiles. Eric also reflects on the challenges of backtesting bearish strategies and why sometimes sitting in cash is the best trade.It’s a great discussion on trading defensively, adapting strategies to market conditions, and staying consistent during uncertain times.Want to connect? Find me on X:Eric O'Rourke: https://twitter.com/OptionAssassinAfter that, join other listeners at https://StockMarketOptionsTrading.net and join the community for free right now where there are daily posts with clues to the where the market may be headed next. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

In this episode, Eric recaps the latest market action as the S&P 500 breaks back above the 200-day moving average following a strong Monday rally. He covers key levels from SpotGamma.com, including updated put and call walls, and discusses this week’s major economic events like GDP, Core PCE, and Consumer Sentiment. Eric also shares a few SPX trade setups from Alpha Crunching, including a bullish 7-day put credit spread using the Weekly Triumph Rate, and explains how he's navigating recent market volatility by staying mechanical.Use code SPX50 for 50% off your first month at https://www.alphacrunching.com and start trading with confidence. Interested in joining Alpha Traders Club? Click Here for a 7 Day TrialWant to connect? Find me on X:Eric O'Rourke: https://twitter.com/OptionAssassinAfter that, join other listeners at https://StockMarketOptionsTrading.net and join the community for free right now where there are daily posts with clues to the where the market may be headed next. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

📢 Read the full blog post with charts and performance data: https://www.alphacrunching.com/blog/bear-market-hedging-strategySummary:In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, we break down a bear market hedging strategy that just triggered given the current market conditions.Right now, SPX is down about 10%—a textbook correction—but it’s also trading below the 200-day moving average, which we’re using as a key reference point for this strategy. While some traders debate whether this qualifies as a bear market, the real focus is on objective, rule-based trading to avoid emotional decisions during volatile times.We discuss:✅ How this strategy works – using SPX bear call spreads with a 14-day expiration✅ Why it only triggers in bearish conditions – avoiding the drag of constant hedging✅ Performance since 2017 – with a 77% win rate and key takeaways from past bear markets✅ The importance of avoiding overtrading – staying mechanical when markets turn volatileThis isn’t an everyday trade—it only triggers in bearish conditions—but when it does, it has historically provided an edge in downturns without sacrificing gains in bullish markets.🎧 Listen now and see if this trade is setting up for next week!🔗 Full blog post with charts & backtest results: https://www.alphacrunching.com/blog/bear-market-hedging-strategyWant to connect? Find me on X:Eric O'Rourke: https://twitter.com/OptionAssassinAfter that, join other listeners at https://StockMarketOptionsTrading.net and join the community for free right now where there are daily posts with clues to the where the market may be headed next. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

In this episode of Stock Market Options Trading, host Eric O'Rourke recaps a wild week for the S&P 500, including a sharp sell-off, extreme volatility, and a bounce off key support near SPX 5800. 📉📈🔎 Key Topics Covered:✅ SPX range update: 5800-6200 🎯✅ Bullish trades not triggering and why patience pays✅ How Eric used iron condors to trade the chop ⚙️✅ Why the Fed’s rate cut timeline is shifting 📅✅ Key events this week: PMI, jobless claims, NFP, and Powell speaking 💼💬💡 Pro Tip: When markets get wild, risk/reward matters more than ever—and Eric explains how he sizes his trades to survive big swings.👉 Tune in for smart insights, trade ideas, and a clear game plan for the week ahead! 🎧Want to connect? Find me on X:Eric O'Rourke: https://twitter.com/OptionAssassinAfter that, join other listeners at https://StockMarketOptionsTrading.net and join the community for free right now where there are daily posts with clues to the where the market may be headed next. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

In this episode of Stock Market Option Trading, host Eric O'Rourke breaks down last week's failed SPX breakout and the sharp sell-off on Friday 📉. He recaps key economic events, including FOMC minutes 🏦, jobless claims 📊, and PMI data 📉, and discusses what to watch for this week, such as GDP 📈, jobless claims 💼, and core PCE 💵.🔥 Options Flow Insights: Eric dives into recent bearish options activity, key market levels, and how Alpha Crunching's trade setups are adjusting to the current conditions.🚀 Trading Automation Update: Exciting news! Eric shares details on a new automation tool 🤖 he's testing to streamline mechanical trading strategies—making trading more efficient and less time-consuming. Something he will be sharing in the Alpha Traders Club group. 💡 Tune in now for:✅ A full market recap 📰✅ Key trade ideas for the week 📊✅ The future of automated trading 🤖👉 Listen now and stay ahead of the market! 🎧Want to connect? Find me on X:Eric O'Rourke: https://twitter.com/OptionAssassinAfter that, join other listeners at https://StockMarketOptionsTrading.net and join the community for free right now where there are daily posts with clues to the where the market may be headed next. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

Click Here for the SPX Income Masterclass discussed in this week's episode. In this episode of the Stock Market Option Trading podcast, host Eric O’Rourke dives into the key differences between bull call spreads and bull put spreads, breaking down their mechanics, risk-reward profiles, and how to manage them effectively.Eric explains why bull call spreads, which are debit trades, require a directional move to profit, while bull put spreads, as credit trades, can benefit from time decay. He also discusses strike selection, risk-reward considerations, and win rates, helping traders determine which strategy aligns best with their trading style.This episode was inspired by the latest bull call spread strategy module added to the SPX Income Masterclass, offering traders a structured way to approach bullish options strategies.👉 Check out the SPX Income Masterclass at stockmarketoptiontrading.net🎧 Listen now and don’t forget to leave a review!Want to connect? Find me on X:Eric O'Rourke: https://twitter.com/OptionAssassinAfter that, join other listeners at https://StockMarketOptionsTrading.net and join the community for free right now where there are daily posts with clues to the where the market may be headed next. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.