Emerging Topics Community: Return to Trees, Part 1: Overview of Tree-Based Algorithms

Join Frank Yeager, FSA and Chris Smith, ASA for an insightful discussion about leadership, the future of actuarial consulting, and the value of strong relationships. Frank shares his advice for aspiring and early-career actuaries gleaned over the course of a two-decade long career at Mercer that has culminated in his latest role as US Health Actuarial and Financial Group Leader.

Listen as host Jackie Lee talks with SOA President and Chair, Tim Rozar. They discuss Tim’s actuarial and volunteer background and the SOA’s goals for the year to come. Be sure to check out Tim’s Presidential address here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BG0AhwX6Ic  

Podcast on the industry adoption of emerging data sets across the insurance value chain. The participants include recognized leaders from business, regulation, legal, and innovation. The discussion covers current adoption practices, business opportunity, regulatory  and legal considerations.

Building on the discussion of individual decision trees in the prior episode, Shea and Anders shift to one of today’s most popular ensemble models, the Random Forest. At first glance, the algorithm may seem like a brute force approach of simply running hundreds or thousands of decision trees, but it leverages the concept of “bagging” to avoid overfitting and attempt to learn as much as possible from the entire data sets, not just a few key features. We close by covering strengths and weaknesses of this model and providing some real-life examples.

Dave Dillion and Bryon Robidoux discuss the book Dare to Lead, which was the Joint Risk Management and Leadership & Development Sections book club selection for December. They discuss what it means for managers to be vulnerable. How to give and receive feedback from both a manager’s perspective and the direct report perspective. The end the podcast talking about actuaries can be more curious and innovative.

What is professionalism?  Is it just following the law?  The code/rules of professional conduct?  Is it more than both of those? Listen to our podcast where YPAC member Patrick Samborsky, ASA, MAAA discusses professionalism with Charly J Pazdor, FSA retired, who has written about professionalism for The Actuary magazine as well as being a course director and facilitator for the FAC. 

Shea and Anders dive into tree-based algorithms, starting with the most fundamental variety, the single decision tree. We cover the mechanics of a decision tree and provide a comparison to linear models. A solid understanding of how a decision tree works is critical to fully grasp the nuances of the more powerful ensemble models, the Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine. In addition, single decision trees can still be useful either as a starting point for building more complex models or for situations where interpretability is paramount.

Join host Jackie Lee and guest Colby Schaeffer as they delve into the recent SOA research paper, “Modeling the Impact of the Great Unwinding on State Medicaid Programs.” They explore the model presented in the research paper and discuss the societal and actuarial implications of the Great Unwinding. Tune in to learn more about this important topic.

Dave Dillon talks to psychologist Matt Fleischman, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Neurofeedback Advocacy Project, and Charlie Doe, a retired group health actuary, about neurofeedback, infra-low frequency (ILF) neurofeedback, the data on over 500 clients who have completed 20 sessions of ILF neurofeedback, and the prospect to expand neurofeedback's availability.   

In the first of a series to further explore and differentiate the regulatory bodies and rating agencies overseeing the insurance industry, this podcast presents a conversation with Matthew Mosher, MAAA, FCAS, CERA, President and CEO of AM Best Rating Services. Matt presents an overview of the goals of and approaches taken to evaluate insurance companies with a focus on the important considerations for financial reporting actuaries and how they assist the relationship between AM Best and the companies under review.