On the Ballot

On this episode: Chaz Nuttycombe returns to talk with Host Norm Leahy about what happened in state legislatures on November 3rd. They discuss the largest net gain in state legislative seats for either party this century, why so many polls missed and what Chaz calls “total recall bias,” the chambers that flipped and supermajorities that fell from Texas to Kansas, how data centers shaped races in states like Utah and West Virginia, and what the results could mean for Virginia’s 2027 General Assembly elections and beyond.Episode Highlights:00:00 - Show Intro & Welcome Back Chaz Nuttycombe03:51 - The Biggest State Legislative Gains This Century07:14 - Why the Polls Missed: Total Recall Bias09:52 - Flipped Chambers and Broken Supermajorities17:52 - How Data Centers Shaped the Results21:32 - Virginia’s 2027 Elections and What’s NextShow Notes:Chaz Nuttycombe is the executive director of State Navigate, a Richmond-based nonprofit forecasting and data organization focused on state legislatures and state politics. He started the project as CNalysis while studying at Virginia Tech, and it later became State Navigate, which began polling in 2025 and now forecasts every state legislative seat on the ballot. State Navigate and Ballotpedia share a data exchange partnership.Explore State Navigate’s forecasts and polling: https://statenavigate.comRead Ballotpedia’s State Legislative Competitiveness Report: https://ballotpedia.org/Annual_State_Legislative_Competitiveness_Report:_Vol._16,_2026More from Ballotpedia:  Sign up for Civic Blueprints, a substack by Ballotpedia Founder and CEO Leslie Graves: ⁠https://civicblueprints.substack.com/ Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole. 

On this episode: Ballotpedia’s Andrew Bahl joins Host Norm Leahy to explain why the count doesn’t end on election night, starting with Mississippi’s razor-thin U.S. Senate race. They discuss what affidavit ballots are and why Mississippi is seeing more of them, why it’s the only state in the country without a recount law, how recount rules work in other close races like North Carolina’s 5th and Minnesota’s 1st congressional districts, what the canvass is, and how often recounts actually change the outcome of an election.Episode Highlights:00:00 - Show Intro & Meet Andrew Bahl02:54 - Mississippi’s Affidavit Ballots05:04 - Why Mississippi Has No Recount Law06:25 - Close Calls in North Carolina and Minnesota09:45 - What Happens After Election Night11:05 - How Often Do Recounts Change Results?Show Notes:Andrew Bahl is a staff writer at Ballotpedia covering election administration and election law. He writes the Ballot Bulletin, Ballotpedia’s weekly newsletter on election legislation, policy trends, and election administration news.Sign up for the Ballot Bulletin and Ballotpedia’s other newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_UpdatesMore from Ballotpedia:  Sign up for Civic Blueprints, a substack by Ballotpedia Founder and CEO Leslie Graves: ⁠https://civicblueprints.substack.com/ Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: The black box of money in politics. They discuss how OpenSecrets got its start as a 1,500-page book in the post-Watergate era, how two 2010 court decisions gave rise to super PACs and dark money, what’s driving the rising cost of elections, the growing role of mega donors and industries like crypto and AI, why spending on state and local races and ballot measures deserves more attention, and where campaign finance could be headed next.On the Ballot’s Midterm Mania is here to help you know your ballot up and down before you vote on November 3rd. Tune in for conversations with election analysts, journalists, and Ballotpedia’s brightest on policy, the people, and everything in between. Subscribe to stay ahead of the headlines! Episode Highlights:00:00 - Show Intro & Meet Hilary Braseth06:52 - From Watergate to Citizens United11:39 - What’s Driving Record Spending14:47 - Mega Donors and New Industries16:52 - Money in State and Local Races21:17 - The Future of Fundraising and RegulationShow Notes:Hilary Braseth is the executive director of OpenSecrets, the nonpartisan, nonprofit research group that tracks money in U.S. politics. She took the helm in December 2023, succeeding longtime executive director Sheila Krumholz. She came to OpenSecrets from the world of emerging tech and social change, including several years at the design firm IDEO and a Public Service Fellowship at Harvard Kennedy School.Look up who’s funding the candidates and committees on your ballot: https://www.opensecrets.orgExplore all of 2026’s statewide ballot measures: https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measuresMore from Ballotpedia:  Sign up for Civic Blueprints, a substack by Ballotpedia Founder and CEO Leslie Graves: ⁠https://civicblueprints.substack.com/ Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: A look at the state of the states. They discuss the national mood shaping thousands of state legislative races, which chambers and trifectas could change hands, what State Navigate’s polling in states like Georgia and Vermont is showing, why shifts in who turns out can make comparisons to past elections tricky, the rise of fake polls and what it means for trust in polling, and an early look at Virginia’s 2027 General Assembly elections.On the Ballot’s Midterm Mania is here to help you know your ballot up and down before you vote on November 3rd. Tune in for conversations with election analysts, journalists, and Ballotpedia’s brightest on policy, the people, and everything in between. Subscribe to stay ahead of the headlines!Episode Highlights:00:00 - Show Intro & Welcome Back Chaz Nuttycombe05:57 - Forecasting 6,000+ State Legislative Seats12:37 - What State Navigate’s Polling Shows19:20 - Who’s Turning Out This Year28:31 - Fake Polls, AI, and Trust in Polling35:58 - Virginia’s 2027 Elections and the Trifectas to WatchShow Notes:Chaz Nuttycombe is the executive director of State Navigate, a Richmond-based nonprofit forecasting and data organization focused on state legislatures and state politics. He started the project as CNalysis while studying at Virginia Tech, and it later became State Navigate, which began polling in 2025 and now forecasts every state legislative seat on the ballot. State Navigate and Ballotpedia share a data exchange partnership.Explore State Navigate’s forecasts and polling: https://statenavigate.comRead Ballotpedia’s State Legislative Competitiveness Report: https://ballotpedia.org/Annual_State_Legislative_Competitiveness_Report:_Vol._16,_2026More from Ballotpedia:  Sign up for Civic Blueprints, a substack by Ballotpedia Founder and CEO Leslie Graves: ⁠https://civicblueprints.substack.com/ Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: How the Fed weighs the timing of its moves, how past chairs from William McChesney Martin to Alan Greenspan navigated their relationships with presidents and Congress, what happened when the Fed raised rates ahead of the 1978 and 2022 midterms, what Fed independence looks like in practice, and the long-term challenge of bringing inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.On the Ballot’s Midterm Mania is here to help you know your ballot up and down before you vote on November 3rd. Tune in for conversations with election analysts, journalists, and Ballotpedia’s brightest on policy, the people, and everything in between. Subscribe to stay ahead of the headlines!Episode Highlights:00:00 - Show Intro & Welcome Back Jeffrey Lacker06:33 - How Past Fed Chairs Worked With Washington10:50 - Rate Decisions Before the 1978 and 2022 Midterms14:46 - What Fed Independence Looks Like in Practice19:02 - How Much Should the Fed Talk?23:15 - The Questions Facing the Fed in 2027Show Notes:Jeffrey Lacker served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond from 2004 to 2017 and is now a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.Read Jeff’s recent writings on monetary policy and the Fed: https://www.jeffreylacker.org/recent-writings Listen to Jeff on Macro Musings discussing a new Fed-Treasury accord: https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/jeffrey-lacker-what-new-fed-treasury-accord-might-look More from Ballotpedia:  Sign up for Civic Blueprints, a substack by Ballotpedia Founder and CEO Leslie Graves: ⁠https://civicblueprints.substack.com/ Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Ballotpedia’s Lara Bonatesta from our events team and Victoria Rose from our ballot measures team join Host Norm Leahy to cover what’s further down the ballot this November. They break down the trends behind this year’s 164 statewide ballot measures, from voter ID and the initiative process to California’s proposed ‘billionaires tax,’ why so many seats are open this year, the secretary of state and attorney general races that help shape how elections are run, how data centers have become an issue at every level of the ballot, and the races and measures they’ll be watching on election night.On the Ballot’s Midterm Mania is here to help you know your ballot up and down before you vote on November 3rd. Tune in for conversations with election analysts, journalists, and Ballotpedia’s brightest on policy, the people, and everything in between. Subscribe to stay ahead of the headlines!Episode Highlights:00:00 - Show Intro & Meet Lara Bonatesta and Victoria Rose06:00 - Open Seats, Redistricting, and Record Retirements14:05 - Secretaries of State, AGs, and Other Down-Ballot Races19:30 - Data Centers Up and Down the Ballot26:08 - The Races and Measures to Watch on Election Night32:39 - First Returns: Florida, Virginia, and the LA Mayor’s RaceShow Notes:Lara Bonatesta is a staff writer on Ballotpedia’s events team, where she covers congressional, state executive, and mayoral elections. Victoria Rose is the lead writer on Ballotpedia’s ballot measures team, where she covers statewide ballot measure trends.Explore all of 2026’s statewide ballot measures: https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measuresRead Ballotpedia’s State Executive Competitiveness Report: https://ballotpedia.org/Annual_State_Executive_Competitiveness_Report,_2026See everything on your ballot with Ballotpedia’s Sample Ballot Lookup: https://ballotpedia.org/Sample_Ballot_LookupFind registration deadlines, early voting dates, and more in Ballotpedia’s 2026 Voter Toolkit: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Voter_Toolkit More from Ballotpedia:  Sign up for Civic Blueprints, a substack by Ballotpedia Founder and CEO Leslie Graves: ⁠https://civicblueprints.substack.com/ Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Ballotpedia Managing Editor Doug Kronaizl joins Host Norm Leahy to go behind the scenes of Ballotpedia’s local election coverage, which spans about 55,000 elections and 116,000 candidates in 2026, a record for Ballotpedia. They discuss how the team tracks down candidate lists county by county, why some elections are run by law firms or neighbors with a landline, the unusual offices they’ve found along the way, from landowner elections to votes counted in dollars, and the plan to cover every elected office in all 50 states by 2028.On the Ballot’s Midterm Mania is here to help you know your ballot up and down before you vote on November 3rd. Tune in for conversations with election analysts, journalists, and Ballotpedia’s brightest on policy, the people, and everything in between. Subscribe to stay ahead of the headlines! Episode Highlights:00:00 - Show Intro & Meet Doug Kronaizl04:22 - Single-Source vs. Multi-Source States09:34 - Calling Law Firms and Landlines12:04 - Landowner Elections and Votes Counted in Dollars17:28 - Endorsements and Getting to Know Local Candidates23:08 - The Road to All 50 StatesShow Notes:Doug Kronaizl is a managing editor at Ballotpedia, where he leads the team gathering information on tens of thousands of local candidates every election cycle.Look up every contest on your ballot with Ballotpedia’s Sample Ballot Lookup: https://ballotpedia.org/Sample_Ballot_LookupLearn more about Ballotpedia’s 2026 local election coverage: https://ballotpedia.org/Local_election_coverage,_2026 More from Ballotpedia:  Sign up for Civic Blueprints, a substack by Ballotpedia Founder and CEO Leslie Graves: ⁠https://civicblueprints.substack.com/ Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Exploring the part of the ballot where many voters run out of information: the school boards, judges, county offices and special districts that make up more than 500,000 elected offices nationwide. They discuss why so many voters leave the booth unsure about their down-ballot choices, Ballotpedia’s plan to cover every contest on every ballot by 2028, how candidate surveys and local endorsing groups help fill the gaps, and preparing to enter the busiest stretch of the year. On the Ballot’s Midterm Mania is here to help you know your ballot up and down before you vote on November 3rd. Tune in for conversations with election analysts, journalists, and Ballotpedia’s brightest on policy, the people, and everything in between. Subscribe to stay ahead of the headlines!Episode Highlights:00:00 - Show Intro & Meet Leslie Graves01:18 - Here There Be Dragons: The Offices Voters Don’t Know05:02 - Ballotpedia’s Plan to Cover Every Contest10:00 - Candidate Surveys and Local Endorsements13:28 - Why Local Information Is So Hard to Find17:08 - Volunteers, AI, and the “Big Six Weeks”More from Ballotpedia:  Sign up for Civic Blueprints, a substack by Ballotpedia Founder and CEO Leslie GravesSign up for our NewslettersStream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Jessica Taylor, Senate and Governors Editor at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, joins Host Norm Leahy to break down the Senate map less than three weeks before Election Day. They discuss how Cook rates races, why states like Kansas, Nebraska and South Carolina are suddenly on the radar, each party’s path to a Senate majority, the governors’ races to watch, how money and issues like affordability and data centers are shaping the final stretch, and the early results she’ll be watching on election night.On the Ballot’s Midterm Mania is here to help you know your ballot up and down before you vote on November 3rd. Tune in for conversations with election analysts, journalists, and Ballotpedia’s brightest on policy, the people, and everything in between. Subscribe to stay ahead of the headlines!Episode Highlights:00:00 - Show Intro & Meet Jessica Taylor03:42 - The Senate Races on the Move07:27 - Each Party’s Path to a Senate Majority09:41 - The Governors’ Races to Watch14:11 - Money, Ad Rates, and the Issues Moving Voters18:01 - Upset Specials and Election Night BellwethersShow Notes:Jessica Taylor is the Senate and Governors Editor at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Before joining Cook, she spent five years as a political reporter at NPR and was a senior analyst at The Rothenberg Political Report (now Inside Elections). Read Jessica’s latest analysis and race ratings: https://www.cookpolitical.com/about/staff/jessica-taylor/analysisMore from Ballotpedia:  Sign up for Civic Blueprints, a substack by Ballotpedia Founder and CEO Leslie Graves: ⁠https://civicblueprints.substack.com/ Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Jayme Lozano, who covers the South Plains and Panhandle for The Texas Tribune, joins Host Norm Leahy to talk about what’s on Texas voters’ minds heading into November, from affordability and property taxes to the data center boom reaching rural communities. They also discuss why the open race for agriculture commissioner matters more than many voters realize, how rural Texans could shape the governor’s and U.S. Senate races, the challenges facing the state’s ranchers, and the under-the-radar races she’ll be watching on election night.On the Ballot’s Midterm Mania is here to help you know your ballot up and down before you vote on November 3rd. Tune in for conversations with election analysts, journalists, and Ballotpedia’s brightest on policy, the people, and everything in between. Subscribe to stay ahead of the headlines! Episode Highlights:00:00 - Show Intro & Meet Jayme Lozano02:18 - Data Centers Up and Down the Ballot05:24 - Why the Agriculture Commissioner Race Matters07:28 - The Governor and Senate Races and the Rural Vote10:11 - Energy Prices, Beef, and Life for Texas Ranchers14:16 - The 2027 Legislature and Races to WatchShow Notes:Jayme Lozano Carver is The Texas Tribune’s first Lubbock-based reporter, covering the South Plains and Panhandle through a partnership with Report for America. texastribuneFollow Jayme’s reporting: https://www.texastribune.org/author/jayme-lozano-carver/Check out The Texas Tribune’s 2026 voter guides: https://www.texastribune.org/2026-vote/More from Ballotpedia:  Sign up for Civic Blueprints, a substack by Ballotpedia Founder and CEO Leslie Graves: ⁠https://civicblueprints.substack.com/ Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.