The New Washington Consensus

With American military and economic help on the way to Kyiv, Chris, Zack and Melanie discuss the Russo-Ukrainian war. Will the new American aid package make a difference in the outcome of the conflict? What should be Ukraine’s strategy going forward? What, if anything, can Ukraine and its partners realistically do to get Russia to make meaningful concessions at the negotiating table? Chris has a very proud attaboy for his son who is graduating from college and moving into the real world, Zack questions the effectiveness of a protest in Washington, D.C., and Melanie criticizes Greenpeace for a very bad idea that could have devastating consequences. This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Gavin Wilde’s recent article in the Texas National Security Review on foreign media manipulation. How vulnerable are citizens of democracies to manipulation through social media? Is a more open and less hierarchical media space a national security threat? And what, if anything, should policymakers in democracies do about this issue? Grievances for China blocking popular apps, Marjorie Taylor Green for her shenanigans surrounding the foreign aid vote, and to the F-35, the gift that keeps on giving (to the tune of $2 trillion); Attas for Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko for an important article on Ukraine, to Mike Johnson for taking a principled stand on the foreign aid bill, and to the first Australian officers to participate in AUKUS nuclear submarine training. This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the 2024 ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute State of Southeast Asia Survey, in which regional experts assess power trends and perceptions among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The report yields some warning signs for the United States in the region, suggesting that the Biden team has much more work to do in Southeast Asia. Chris and Melanie worry about American shipbuilding while Zack commends and critiques American and Japanese leaders for announcements connected to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to Washington. This episode's reading.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about the 2024 Annual Threat Assessment, created by the U.S. intelligence agencies. The report focuses on state actors and transnational issues that could be challenges to the United States in the coming year. What major threats does the United States face in the next year? What are we too worried about? What should we be concerned about that we aren’t paying attention to? With so many challenges, where should our focus be? Zack congratulates contributors to the new BlueBlaze newsletter, Chris commends the Veterans Studies Association, and Melanie wonders why New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez is still in Congress and getting classified briefings. This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie and Zack take a close look at the United States’ relationship with countries in Latin America. Why has the United States neglected Latin America in the last several decades? Should the United States government up its game in order to compete for influence with China in its own hemisphere? And, if so, how? And will improving U.S. ties in the region help to alleviate the immigration situation on the southern border? Grievances for Donald Trump's love for TikTok, Americans ignoring Haiti, and Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz who can't get along. Attas to Sen Roger Wicker for noting for months that there won't be enough money for shipbuilding — and being right!; to the members of the House who voted to compel TikTok to divest from Bytedance; and to Sen. Bernie Sanders and five other senators for calling for a new Truman Commission to root out wartime profiteering. This episode's reading:

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss an article on the concept of unbalanced multipolarity by Emma Ashford and Evan Cooper. They debate what might happen if the United States pulls back from its leadership role in Europe and the rest of the world. Would America’s absence lead to global or regional disorder? Would allies step up to take some of the burden off Washington? Or would competing regional blocs emerge? Melanie laments the lack of progress on funding the Compacts of Free Association, Chris criticizes a publication decision by the New York Times, and Zack questions JD Vance’s approach to addressing defense industry shortfalls. Full episode reading.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sat down to talk about the new National Defense Industrial Strategy. Is this document really a strategy? What are the biggest problems we need to fix with respect to our defense industrial base? Considering the state of where we are now, is it even possible to get our industrial house in order in the near term to deter or prevail in a conflict with an adversary? Chris has a grievance for those who couldn’t believe Donald Trump’s recent NATO comments (where have they been for the last eight years?), Zack thanks Rep. Mike Gallagher for his service, and Melanie is unhappy with the response to legislators trying to come to an agreement on the difficult issue of immigration reform. This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie and Zack review the Council on Foreign Relations’ annual Preventive Priorities Survey, which asked foreign policy experts to rank 30 current and possible future conflicts relative to their likelihood and impact on U.S. national interests. The leading threat, according to these experts, was of political violence or domestic terrorism in the United States associated with the 2024 presidential election. Other leading threats were the possibility of a wider war in the Middle East arising out of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and of continued migration from Central America and Mexico. The three consider these, as well as others that fell farther down the list, and asked, how can these be prioritized? What is being done to stop them? And what is the broader value in engaging in these ranking exercises in the first place? Grievances for the Biden administration’s short-sighted new regulations on liquified natural gas, U.S. Middle East policy (does it make sense to anyone?), and the way our broken politics manages to infect even an all-American love story like Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Can we just give it a rest? Attaboys to Navy Comptroller and friend-of-War of the Rocks Russell Rumbaugh, and Capt. Chris “Chowda” Hill, the commanding officer of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69), and to the show for reaching 1 million downloads. This episode's reading.

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate whether the international order is fraying and if so, what to do about it. They focus in particular on the recent Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, and discuss how the United States should respond. Melanie questions Liz Truss's support of expedited defense exports to China and Chris laments the lack of communication around Lloyd Austin's delegation of authority while Zack makes Chris a job offer he can refuse.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie ring in the new year with a discussion on whether or not "The U.S. Needs More Foreign Entanglements," as writer Andreas Kluth argues. What, exactly, is an entangling alliance? How should the United States manage relationships with some of our more tricky partners? Is it politically possible to extricate ourselves from relationships that no longer serve American interests?   Besides giving the usual grievances and attaboys, the gang looks ahead in 2024. Chris would like to see more coverage of the positive aspects of AI, Melanie is keeping eyes on the new Argentine President Milei as he sets about trying to reform the economic and political systems, and Zack is pessimistic about the upcoming presidential election.   This episode's reading.