Is American Deterrence Failing?

The United States has a growing disconnect between its foreign policy objectives and the resources it devotes to national security, but inertia has hampered meaningful policy change in recent years. Chris and Melanie discuss a recent article from Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim that analyzes the challenges associated with overcoming status quo bias. Chris commends Taiwan for purchasing new missiles for defense purposes and Melanie praises Australia for adapting to the new missile age. This episode's reading

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down for a retrospective episode about the Biden administration’s foreign and defense policy. Using U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Foreign Affairs article “America’s Strategy of Renewal,” they ask if the United States is better off in terms of national security than it was four years ago. What are the most important accomplishments of the Biden team, and what have been its critical failures? Are our alliance relationships as strong as Blinken wants us to believe? What opportunities were missed, and which were seized? Zack and Melanie are amazed by what Elon Musk has done with SpaceX, and Chris is disappointed that the administration hasn’t shut the door on Ukraine joining NATO. This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the American military footprint in Europe. Why does the United States maintain such a large presence there? Are there other ways to accomplish our goals with a smaller physical presence there? And what outcomes would we see if the United States made major troop reductions on the continent? Grievances for Tony Blinken’s tone-deaf article in Foreign Affairs and toward Europe for its continued trade with Russia, while Zack expresses concern for New Zealand’s navy following the loss of one its newer warships. Attapeople to Cato’s Colin Grabow for a sensible proposal to enhance the U.S. shipbuilding industry; to the United States and South Korea for a creative cost-sharing agreement; and to the U.K. government for ceding control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.   This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Carter Malkasian's recent article on "America’s crisis of deterrence.” They debate whether recent policy failures are a breakdown of deterrence theory or U.S. policy, and, if so, what to do about them. Chris advocates for the benefits of nuclear power, Melanie expresses excitement about French spies, and Zack commends semiconductor producers for delivering on the CHIPS Act.  This episode's reading.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about America’s nuclear policy. Are we in a new “nuclear age,” as some Biden administration officials and experts have argued? Does a bleak security environment, where China is rapidly building up its nuclear arsenal and Russia is threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, mean the United States should develop more and different nuclear weapons? Should we be more open to allies and partners going nuclear?   Chris is grateful for foundations that support serious policy research, including the Stanton Foundation, which has just made a $45 million gift to MIT’s Security Studies Program, Zack has a grievance for the corrupt government of Venezuela, and Melanie (again) laments the bipartisan opposition to Nippon Steel buying U.S. Steel.  This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether national security has been defined too loosely. If too many things fall under the category of national security, do we risk missing the really important ones? How should policymakers decide what is a national security threat--and what isn’t? What are the first-order national security threats facing the United States? And how can government decision-makers impose some discipline on how they think about and manage true national security threats? Grievances for China’s (other) bad behavior in the South China Sea and to the Military Sealift Command for taking 17 support ships out of service due to inadequate staffing. Attapeople for the Biden administration in helping to keep the U.S.-Chinese relationship from going completely off the rails; to the U.S. intelligence community and the U.S. media for their deft handling of Iranian attempted election interference; and to Ely Ratner and others in the Biden administration for negotiating a new compact with India. This episode's reading.  

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the findings of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy. They agree that there is a mismatch between U.S. defense strategy and the resources required to execute it, but they disagree on whether and how to adjust the strategy or resources to align the two. Chris laments the saga of the failed Gaza pier, Melanie gives an attaboy to Tyler Cowen, and Zack commends the Ukrainian military for striking a blow against Russia. This episode's reading.

As Africa is seeing a dramatic rise in violent conflict and elected governments there are falling to coups, Chris, Zack, and Melanie sat down to discuss US policy for the region. What are America’s national security and other critical interests in Africa? What should the United States do to protect those interests? Does it matter that Russia and China are exerting military and economic influence in the region? Is it possible to both safeguard our national security interests there while upholding our professed democratic values? Chris criticizes the failure of Army officials to properly deal with a mentally-ill reservist who killed 18 people at a bowling alley in Maine, Zack condemns the Maduro regime for refusing to publish honest results from Venezuela’s presidential election, and Melanie gives a send-off to friend of the show David Pappalardo, who has completed his term as air and space force attaché at the French Embassy in Washington.  

Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss the steps that European countries can and should take to prepare for possible U.S. retrenchment from the continent. Can NATO survive a second Trump administration? Or should we be equally concerned about a second Biden administration for transatlantic relations? Grievances for Justin Trudeau and Canada’s meager defense budgets, to those who kept President Biden’s health problems a secret, and to the Pentagon for acquiescing to the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile's rising costs. Attas to the Secret Service agents who risked their lives to shield former President Trump, to Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro for his handling of the tragic death of a fellow Pennsylvanian during the assassination attempt on former President Trump, and to those members of Congress starting to ask hard questions about the F-35.   This episode's reading.

Upcoming elections could pull France to the right and the United Kingdom to the left, so the Net Assessment team discusses how this might alter policies in Paris and London. They discuss articles by Ulrike Franke and David Lammy, which sketch out the implications for French and British policy, respectively. In particular, what would it mean for the European Union and NATO if London doubles down on Europe just as France pulls away? Chris questions the value of Congressionally-required unfunded priorities lists, Melanie applauds Kaja Kallas's selection as the European Union’s chief diplomat, and Zack commends progress made to host nuclear-powered submarines in Perth, Australia.   This episode's reading.