Is American Deterrence Failing?

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Carter Malkasian's recent article on "America’s crisis of deterrence.” They debate whether recent policy failures are a breakdown of deterrence theory or U.S. policy, and, if so, what to do about them. Chris advocates for the benefits of nuclear power, Melanie expresses excitement about French spies, and Zack commends semiconductor producers for delivering on the CHIPS Act.  This episode's reading.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about America’s nuclear policy. Are we in a new “nuclear age,” as some Biden administration officials and experts have argued? Does a bleak security environment, where China is rapidly building up its nuclear arsenal and Russia is threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, mean the United States should develop more and different nuclear weapons? Should we be more open to allies and partners going nuclear?   Chris is grateful for foundations that support serious policy research, including the Stanton Foundation, which has just made a $45 million gift to MIT’s Security Studies Program, Zack has a grievance for the corrupt government of Venezuela, and Melanie (again) laments the bipartisan opposition to Nippon Steel buying U.S. Steel.  This episode's reading.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether national security has been defined too loosely. If too many things fall under the category of national security, do we risk missing the really important ones? How should policymakers decide what is a national security threat--and what isn’t? What are the first-order national security threats facing the United States? And how can government decision-makers impose some discipline on how they think about and manage true national security threats? Grievances for China’s (other) bad behavior in the South China Sea and to the Military Sealift Command for taking 17 support ships out of service due to inadequate staffing. Attapeople for the Biden administration in helping to keep the U.S.-Chinese relationship from going completely off the rails; to the U.S. intelligence community and the U.S. media for their deft handling of Iranian attempted election interference; and to Ely Ratner and others in the Biden administration for negotiating a new compact with India. This episode's reading.  

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the findings of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy. They agree that there is a mismatch between U.S. defense strategy and the resources required to execute it, but they disagree on whether and how to adjust the strategy or resources to align the two. Chris laments the saga of the failed Gaza pier, Melanie gives an attaboy to Tyler Cowen, and Zack commends the Ukrainian military for striking a blow against Russia. This episode's reading.

As Africa is seeing a dramatic rise in violent conflict and elected governments there are falling to coups, Chris, Zack, and Melanie sat down to discuss US policy for the region. What are America’s national security and other critical interests in Africa? What should the United States do to protect those interests? Does it matter that Russia and China are exerting military and economic influence in the region? Is it possible to both safeguard our national security interests there while upholding our professed democratic values? Chris criticizes the failure of Army officials to properly deal with a mentally-ill reservist who killed 18 people at a bowling alley in Maine, Zack condemns the Maduro regime for refusing to publish honest results from Venezuela’s presidential election, and Melanie gives a send-off to friend of the show David Pappalardo, who has completed his term as air and space force attaché at the French Embassy in Washington.  

Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss the steps that European countries can and should take to prepare for possible U.S. retrenchment from the continent. Can NATO survive a second Trump administration? Or should we be equally concerned about a second Biden administration for transatlantic relations? Grievances for Justin Trudeau and Canada’s meager defense budgets, to those who kept President Biden’s health problems a secret, and to the Pentagon for acquiescing to the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile's rising costs. Attas to the Secret Service agents who risked their lives to shield former President Trump, to Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro for his handling of the tragic death of a fellow Pennsylvanian during the assassination attempt on former President Trump, and to those members of Congress starting to ask hard questions about the F-35.   This episode's reading.

Upcoming elections could pull France to the right and the United Kingdom to the left, so the Net Assessment team discusses how this might alter policies in Paris and London. They discuss articles by Ulrike Franke and David Lammy, which sketch out the implications for French and British policy, respectively. In particular, what would it mean for the European Union and NATO if London doubles down on Europe just as France pulls away? Chris questions the value of Congressionally-required unfunded priorities lists, Melanie applauds Kaja Kallas's selection as the European Union’s chief diplomat, and Zack commends progress made to host nuclear-powered submarines in Perth, Australia.   This episode's reading.

In the first Net Assessment recorded before a live audience, Chris, Zack, and Melanie discuss the U.S.-Turkish relationship. Has America “lost” Turkey? What are the benefits and limitations of transactional relationships, rather than alliances? How should NATO manage alliance members whose interests and behavior seem to be at odds with alliance purposes? They then take questions from participants in The Fund for American Studies programs. Chris has a grievance for a Pentagon program to discredit the Chinese COVID-19 vaccine, Zack condemns China’s ongoing aggression against the Philippines, and Melanie has an attaboy for Bill Gates’s effort to build smaller and safer nuclear reactors.   This episode's readong.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the nature and extent of China’s engagement in the Middle East. Should the United States be concerned about China’s growing involvement in Middle Eastern affairs? If so, what can and should be done about it? Perhaps just as importantly, what should not be done? Grievances for those who dreamed up the Gaza Pier debacle, Sen. Roger Wicker for his supposed “generational” commitment to growing the Pentagon’s budget, and for Canadian parliamentarians who are just a little bit too close to nefarious foreign actors (“semi-witting” accomplices?). Attapeople to the Philippines’s President Bongbong Marcos and to the 12 jurors in Manhattan. This episode's reading.    

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate Matt Pottinger and Mike Gallagher’s recent article about U.S. strategy toward China. They disagree about the Biden administration’s approach and whether the United States needs a final objective. Melanie questions those expressing condolences for the “Butcher of Tehran,” Chris cautions against a major security deal with Saudi Arabia, and Zack commends Tsai Ing-wen on eight years of steady leadership on cross-Strait issues. This episode's reading.