DoubleLine Minutes

DoubleLine Analyst Mark Kimbrough and Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel on Nov. 13 scrutinize a stock market (0:10) demonstrating broad strength for the week. Meanwhile they note fixed income (4:03), with the exception of floating-rate debt, sold off on a “borderline disturbing” CPI for October and hawkish remarks ahead of that report by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. Looking beyond the week-to-week price moves, Mark and Ryan discern in the year-to-date returns leadership shifts. These have favored the equal-weight S&P 500’s outperformance over its market-cap-weighted cousin. Commodities weakened, led lower by industrial metals and energy.   The macro front (10:03) was dominated by the October CPI, which showed “broad-based reflation” and raised the odds of a 50-basis-point hike at the FOMC's Dec. 9 meeting. In the wake of the week’s bond selloff, the odds of a half-point move stood at about 10% by Friday. Ryan Kimmel also takes note of a widening of the federal budget gap “to $404 billion in October, up 42% from the same period last year. This is not encouraging for the sustainability for our fiscal trajectory.”

Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey the Nov. 2-6 week selloff in stocks (0:36), a flight to the safety of bonds (4:05) and weakness in commodities (6:23). While the prospect of post-midterm election gridlock initially encouraged somewhat dovish Fed expectations, they note hike probabilities for the Dec. 9 Federal Open Market Committee meeting surged from 60% to 80% on the fed funds futures market on strong payrolls data for October along with upward revisions for the two prior months. Among other macro data (8:02), Mark dives into ISM manufacturing and services reports, which showed healthy activity in both sectors, albeit accompanied by unabated inflationary pressures. Looking ahead for the Nov. 9-13 week, Jeff and Mark will be most fixed on October’s CPI report on Tuesday and PPI report on Friday.  

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap a heck of a week in markets (Oct. 26-30), as concerns over earnings and AI buildout contributed to stock dispersion, fixed income assets turned green across the board (4:51) and commodities had a pretty volatile run (6:43). In Macro Land (13:24), the big event of the week was the penultimate FOMC meeting of the year, where rates were held steady and the Fed chairman waxed poetic about the agency’s brief. The rich week in economic data also provided prints on sticky PCE inflation (19:10) and a robust advance Q3 GDP estimate (24:23). Next week (28:50) will (potentially) bring midterm election results and new labor numbers.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough discuss the market week ended Oct. 23, including what could end up being a mini-run for tech stocks and a bond market acting as a safe haven (3:42), with commodities (6:38) rounding out what was a volatile week across asset classes that ended relatively flat all around. It was a light week in Macro Land leading into next week’s FOMC meeting, including some unsurprising labor numbers (9:20) and another firm S&P Global U.S. PMI report (10:10) in which inflation is a noticeable issue. Aside from Fed Day, which the market does not expect to deliver a rate hike, next week (15:39) will bring durable goods and home price data as well as the latest PCE print.

Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel survey improved stock breadth even as tech led the S&P 500 lower (1:06) the week ended Oct. 16. Bonds (5:11) enjoyed bull-flattening as short squeezes took hold despite hotter-than-expected inflation. While Bloomberg Commodities Index gained, Eric calls the move a “one-trick pony” in the form of headline-juiced energy prices. Macro news (11:15) was dominated by September core CPI and PPI reports which registered broad, hotter-than-expected inflation, outside factors attributable to the energy complex; retail sales came in more mixed.

Even without tech to liven up the party, stocks staged a broad rally on the S&P 500 (0:42) for the week ended Oct. 9, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough observe. After four weeks of rising yields, bonds (3:01) at last caught a bid. Commodities ended higher (4:55), led by energy on the Middle East conflict. Eric advises being on the lookout for distillate supply interruptions in the wake of Hurricane Isaias’ imminent forecast landfall on the Gulf Coast.   For the week’s macro news (10:14), ISM services for September arrived in line with expansionary expectations, with an inflationary note from the survey’s prices-paid component. FOMC minutes indicated Fed officials leaning toward another fed funds hike in 2026, although the futures market is pricing in a Fed on hold at the rate-setting body’s Oct. 28 meeting. Looking to the week ahead (18:40), all eyes will be peeled for the CPI and PPI reports for September (Wednesday and Thursday, respectively).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review the month of September in markets and the week’s macro news. The S&P 500 (1:01) gave ground in September across all sectors except for gains in tech and a flat communications services sector. Fixed income (4:57) fell to rising rates across the curve with bank loans, thanks to their floating-rate mechanism, the lone holdout. Jeff and Ryan also take note of spread-widening in riskier corporate credit, with higher rates possibly jeopardizing refinancing prospects for some companies. Commodities (9:58) rose, led by energy, amid some of the closest correlation in years between energy prices and interest rates. Among the week’s macro prints (13:00), Ryan noted softer-than-expected job openings in August and softening consumer confidence in September, concerning prices-paid in the ISM manufacturing report for September and a weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll creations in the month.

Hot purchasing manager reports raising growth and inflation expectations the week ended Sept. 25 explain, per DoubleLine’s Eric Dhall and Mark Kimbrough, a narrow tech-driven gain in the S&P 500 (1:04) and higher yields along the U.S. Treasury curve (4:27). Commodities (9:33) eased, led by lower energy prices on Midde East conflict hopes.   The week’s macro prints (13:31) were led by strong S&P purchasing manager readings in the manufacturing and especially services sectors, bringing in tow higher wage pressures and prices-paid inputs. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey found that durable-goods buying conditions improved on the perception purchases now would avoid higher prices in the future. Eric Dhall notes the Federal Reserve’s attention has shifted “to the inflation side of the dual mandate.”   Looking to the week ahead, Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for the JOLTS job-openings report for August (Tuesday); personal income and spending as well as PCE for August (Wednesday); ISM Manufacturing reporting and jobless claims for September (Thursday); and nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for September (Friday).

DoubleLine Analyst Mark Kimbrough and Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap the market week ended Sept. 18, including the modest extension of a downturn in stocks. Fixed income was basically flat on the week, according to the Agg, and rates experienced a bear flattener (3:11). Commodities were also flattish but still way up year-to-date (6:26). The big macro news of the week was Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which brought the first rate hike since 2023 (10:28). Messrs. Kimbrough and Kimmel note that while the markets were prepared for the hike, what was surprising was the extent of hawkish support for the move and possible future hikes this year and next. Other economic news included stronger than expected August retail sales and import prices. Next week will be a light week of data drops, including PMI and durable goods prints (20:53).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review a holiday-shortened week (Sept. 8-11) that delivered a mixed bag for markets: S&P 500 stocks were mostly down but not by much (00:53); bonds had an exciting week as the U.S. Treasury Department’s buyback exceeded its initially discussed goal of $4 billion (3:05); and commodities climbed on higher energy prices, including record diesel prices at the pump (6:09). Over in Macro Land, the main attraction was Inflation Week (7:34). Messrs. Mayberry and Kimbrough break down new prints for the Producer Price Index (8:55) and Consumer Price Index (11:02), which contained no surprises but boosted the odds of a hike at the FOMC meeting, next week’s main event (16:15).