Weekly Market Recap, Friday 28-Jun

US equities ended higher Tuesday, near best levels. Market started the day a bit choppy but ended stronger amidst several moving pieces. Rates have stabilized following a big backup over prior two sessions partly driven by heightened probability of a Republican sweep. Powell highlighted progress on inflation and two-sided risks to Fed's goals.  JOLTS came in stronger than expected and macro narrative remains volatile.

US equities were mostly higher in fairly quiet Monday trading. It was a busy day from a headline perspective, though fairly quiet from an index level. In macro news, June ISM manufacturing missed, its lowest since February, though there was a notable drop in prices-paid index, and new orders improved, though the employment index fell back into contraction territory.

US equities ended mostly higher this week with solid performances from big tech (though Nvidia again underperformed). The big focus this week was on some disappointing key corporate updates, the Trump-Biden presidential debate, the May PCE report, and a continued volatile macro narrative. Core PCE inflation was in line with consensus with April revised slightly upward.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading after an up-and-down session that saw official S&P performance a hair behind the equal-weight index. It was a fairly quiet and uneventful session, though there were a few dynamics at play. Today's mixed economic data and cautious consumer updates also seem to reflect a gradually cooling economy and solidifying hopes for a September cut and pushing rates lower.

US equities ended mostly higher in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 4bps, 16bps, and 49bps respectively. May new home sales missed. Architecture Billings Index declined in May to its lowest level since August 2020. Today's $70B auction of 5-year notes saw slight stop through in latest well-received sale. Micron trading lower after hours as revenue guidance was shy.

US equities finished mixed in Tuesday afternoon trading, with S&P and Nasdaq breaking a streak of three straight declines. Today saw some reversal of the recent momentum unwind.  Underwhelming corporate updates were another area of focus. Little directional impulse from economic calendar or Fedspeak. Stretched positioning and buyback blackouts flagged as near-term headwinds.

US equities ended mixed Monday, well off best levels. Nvidia, semis, and AI-linked names extended recent declines, with Nvidia now off more than 10% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down over 5% since 18-Jun. However, breadth is positive with strong performance across value and cyclical groups. There was not much on the economic calendar as the June Dallas Fed Index missed, though was better m/m.

US equities ended higher in this shortened week of trading with the Equal Weight S&P outperforming the official index. Fed rate cut expectations received a boost from the latest retail sales report, which added to the growing pool of evidence of a cooling US economy. AI enthusiasm also continued to provide support to sentiment with Nvidia surpassing Microsoft on Tuesday to become the most valuable public company.

US equities ended mostly lower Thursday, near worst levels. Price action reflects some consolidation across recent AI winners after Nvidia surpassed Microsoft on Tuesday to become the most valuable public company. a busy day of economic data include an initial claims miss, though slightly off last week's nine-month high that triggered some growth worries, while continuing claims was also a bit higher than expected and the highest since January.

US equities ended higher Tuesday, a bit off best levels. S&P locked in 31st record high of the year. No new developments around the major themes as today's big event, May retail sales, reaffirmed weakening consumer trends and growth concerns and offered more support for September rate cut. Sentiment remains positive and the path of least resistance still seems tilted to the upside, though the macro narrative has been flip-flopping over the past few weeks.