Can We Predict The Unpredictable? with J. Doyne Farmer

What if we could predict the economy the way we predict the weather? What if governments could run simulations to forecast the effects of new policies—before they happen? And what if the key to all of this lies in the same chaotic systems that explain spinning roulette wheels and rolling dice?J. Doyne Farmer is a University of Oxford professor, complexity scientist, and former physicist who once beat Las Vegas casinos using his scientific-based methods. In his recent book “Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World” Farmer is using those same principles to build a new branch of economics called complexity economics—one that uses big data to help forecast market crashes, design better policies and find ways to confront climate change.But can we really predict the unpredictable? And how will using chaos theory shake up well-established economic approaches?

https://haarc.center.uchicago.edu/We used to think aging inevitably led to memory loss, but a small group of people—known as SuperAgers—are defying the odds. These individuals, all over 80, have the memory performance of someone in the 50s. The question is: how?One of the leading experts studying SuperAgers is University of Chicago neurologist Emily Rogalski. She explores the fascinating science behind SuperAgers—uncovering what makes their physical brains different and how their lifestyle choices could be the key to a having a sharper, healthier brain well into old age.

On Big Brains, we get to speak to a lot of groundbreaking scholars and experts, but some conversations we walk away knowing we’ve just heard from someone who is really changing the world. We certainly felt that way years ago after talking to University of Chicago scholar James Robinson, and it turns out…the Nobel Prize committee agreed in 2024 when it awarded him a share of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.Robinson was honored for the exact work that we talked to him about nearly five years ago. The author of numerous best-selling books, including Why Nations Fail (2012) and The Narrow Corridor (2019), he won the Nobel this year because his work researching what makes nations succeed and…what makes them fail. There’s no better time to refamiliarize ourselves with his important research and celebrate his Nobel win.

How old is the universe—and how fast is it expanding? These are part of one of the biggest—and most contested—questions in science, and the answers could change our understanding of physics.In this episode, we talk with renowned UChicago astronomer Wendy Freedman, who’s spent decades trying to solve these very questions. There are two ways to measure how fast the universe is expanding, also known as the Hubble constant; Freedman has done groundbreaking research to calculate this number using stars, but the problem is, her numbers don’t match up with scientists using a different method. And the implications of that difference are massive, because it could indicate that our Standard Model of physics could be broken.Yet Freedman’s latest research, using the powerful James Webb Space Telescope, might finally give us a clearer answer. In our conversation, we explore the age of the universe, the mysteries of dark matter and what all this could mean for the future of physics—and maybe even the discovery of life beyond Earth.

One of the biggest questions of every election is: What’s going on with young voters? There is endless speculation on the news about what young people care about, but very little good research examining their views on the candidates and the issues that matter most to them. The first-of-its-kind GenForward Survey changed that when it was created in 2016 at the University of Chicago.Led by renowned University of Chicago political scientist Cathy Cohen, the survey digs into what is animating young voters—especially young voters of color who are millennials and in Generation Z—and what they think of the candidates. With tight races in key swing states, young people might just hold the keys to the White House—and Cohen says that understanding what how they may vote in November is crucial to understanding the 2024 election.

More and more women in the United States are saying no to motherhood. Alarmingly, in 2023, the U.S. fertility rate reached the lowest number on record. But the idea of non-motherhood is actually not a new phenomenon, nor did it come out of the modern feminist movement. For centuries, women have made choices about limiting births and whether or not to become mothers at all. This history is documented in a new book, "Without Children: The Long History of Not Being a Mother," by University of Chicago Assistant Instructional Professor Peggy O'Donnell Heffington.Heffington writes about the historic trends of non-motherhood as well as the modern factors that are playing a role in women's choices to not have children today — from lack of structural support in the workplace, to a national law for paid maternity leave, and the sheer lack of affordability. She writes that if these trends continue, American millennials could become the largest childless cohort in history.

Race has played a huge role in the creation of mass homeownership in the United States. Discriminatory housing practices including redlining, exclusionary zoning and whitewashing led to great disparities in home ownership among White and Black homeowners. Despite the passage of the Fair Housing Act in 1968, the damage had been done to communities of color and the rates of Black homeownership. Mass homeownership actually changed the definition, perception and value of race, according to a new book called The Residential is Racial: A Perceptual History of Mass Homeownership. In it, University of Chicago scholar Adrienne Brown documents the unexplored history of mass homeownership and how it still plays out today. An associate professor in the Department of English and the Department of Race, Diaspora, and Indigeneity, Brown is also the author of The Black Skyscraper: Architecture and the Perception of Race.

If you’ve spent any time playing with modern AI image generators, it can seem like an almost magical experience; but the truth is these programs are more like a magic trick than magic. Without the human-generated art of hundreds of thousands of people, these programs wouldn’t work. But those artists are not getting compensated, in fact many of them are being put out of business by the very programs their work helped create.Now, two computer scientists from the University of Chicago, Ben Zhao and Heather Zheng, are fighting back. They’ve developed two programs, called Glaze and Nightshade, which create a type of “poison pill” to help protect against generative AI tools like Midjourney and DALL-E, helping artists protect their copyrighted, original work. Their work may also revolutionize all of our relationships to these systems.

In the near future, birth defects, traumatic injuries, limb loss and perhaps even cancer could be cured through bioelectricity—electrical signals that communicate to our cells how to rebuild themselves. This innovative idea has been tested on flatworms and frogs by biologist Michael Levin, whose research investigates how bioelectricity provides the blueprint for how our bodies are built—and how it could be the future of regenerative medicine. Our podcast is taking a quick summer break, but we wanted to take this time to share some of our favorite episodes with you. One of the most fascinating topics we've learned about on this show is bioelectricity; the concept that we could teach our bodies to heal and regenerate on their own. That's why we're resharing our episode with Michael Levin, a biologist and professor at Tufts University, who is studying this new approach to regenerative medicine.

Can you heal faster just by tricking your brain? Could you lose weight with only a change of mindset? Could you think yourself into being younger? If you think the answer to all these questions is no, you haven’t read the research from renowned Harvard University psychologist Ellen Langer.Our podcast is taking a quick summer break, but we wanted to take this time to share some of our favorite episodes with you. The summer is a perfect time to take a step back, evaluate where we are in our lives, and perhaps even create new healthy habits. That's why we wanted to re-share our episode with Ellen Langer, one of the world's leading experts on mindfulness. Langer is a bit of a legend. She’s the first woman to ever receive tenure in psychology at Harvard, and her work has earned her the moniker: “The Mother of Mindfulness”. Her 40-year research career into the mind-body connection—and how mindfulness can hack that system—has delivered some unbelievable results that she believes hold the key to revolutionizing our health. She complies all of her work in her latest book “The Mindful Body: Thinking Our Way to Chronic Health.”