5 in 5 with ANZ

US stocks rise 2% as oil prices slide almost 5% after Donald Trump downplays talk of striking Iran. Markets brace for firm US inflation figures tonight. And China’s consumer price inflation remains weak. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin looks ahead at the challenges for the yet-to-be-decided replacement for European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, including, should the ECB help the European Union (EU) borrow to fund extra defence spending. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs growth is stronger than expected in October. The Democratic ‘Blue Wave’ in US mid-term elections could be good for a still-resilient global economy, and New Zealanders hit the used clothing shops ahead of an inconclusive election. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga sees the Democratic ‘Blue Wave’ to control Congress in the final two years of Donald Trump’s Presidency reducing policy extremes around AI, the US Budget deficit, tariffs and the Middle East. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks slumped as much as 6% overnight as investors worried a Democrat-dominated US Congress and states might slow down the buildout of data centres. The Bank of England hikes, and Australia’s exports improve. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari analyses a shift in aluminium supply which had been hit by the Middle East conflict. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets rally after the Democrats sweep the US House and Senate. Oil prices slump almost 10%. New Zealand’s labour market unexpectedly weakens. And Australian households lift their spending. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matt Galt explains how New Zealand can have an improving economy, but a soggy labour market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hikes the cash rate to 4.85%. ANZ Research expects it to stay there until the end of 2027. And New Zealand jobs data today is expected to reflect an economic turnaround in recent quarters. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton digs into the path ahead for the RBA. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices slump 8% overnight on signs the US and Iran want to end their conflict. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hike today, but will it do more? And Australian house prices are falling, and not just in Sydney and Melbourne. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why oil prices could spike if conflict escalates in the Middle East after this week’s US mid-term elections. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets bracing for a ramping up of the Iran conflict after this week’s US mid-term elections, that could push oil prices over US$120 barrel. Taiwan’s growth beats forecasts. And the Bank of Japan holds. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at two big themes – global economic resilience and worries about fiscal sustainability, particularly in the US. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The ECB holds rates, as expected, but President Christine Lagarde resigns unexpectedly. US growth and inflationary pressures strengthen, heaping pressure on the Fed to hike in December. And New Zealand business confidence remains resilient. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin analyses what’s next for the Fed after this week’s rate hold. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed holds rates in a 10-to-2 vote - markets still see a hike in December. The RBNZ unexpectedly holds and sends the NZ dollar tumbling. Bank of Thailand also holds - but that one was expected. In our deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to keep hiking after yesterday’s surprise hold. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets firm ahead of the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow - expected by the market to be a hold. And in Australia today, attention is on Q3 inflation data for clues on whether the RBA will hike next week. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk outlines ANZ Research’s latest Australian house price forecast revisions. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/