Ten Miles Square

Democrats won big. Can they deliver?Voters handed Democrats a midterm win on affordability, and now they expect results. That won’t be easy with Trump still in the White House. Ed Kilgore, political columnist at New York magazine, joins Anne Kim to talk about the quick wins Democrats need. They cover the “double haters” who decided the election, the party’s surprising gains across the South, and whether Democrats can work with a president they don’t trust. They also look ahead to 2028: the fate of the GOP and what Democrats should look for in their next nominee.Guest: Ed Kilgore, political columnist, New York magazineChapters00:00 Why midterms are a referendum, but 2028 is a choice03:05 The “double haters” and Democrats’ affordability challenge06:25 Governing trifectas, overreach, and anti-government sentiment08:10 Can Democrats work with Trump? The trust problem10:37 Democratic gains across the South13:58 Who is powering the new Southern coalition?15:48 Balancing affordability with investigations and impeachment18:20 The GOP’s post-election divisions and Vance’s prospects21:38 Trump’s legacy and the risks of the next two years23:26 What Democrats should look for in a 2028 candidateTen Miles Square is a Washington Monthly podcast hosted by Anne Kim.

The Trump administration recently proposed dramatic changes to the U.S. Census that could erase millions of people from the official count and obscure vital demographic data. If these plans move forward, the 2030 Census could include new questions related to citizenship and a ban on questions about race, ethnicity and sexual orientation. These changes would have profound implications for politics, policy, and national identity, argues Margo J. Anderson, the nation’s pre-eminent historian on the U.S. Census.  Host: Anne KimGuest: Margo Anderson, Distinguished Professor Emerita, University of Wisconsin-MilwaukeeChapters00:00 Introduction: The Power and Significance of the Census02:04 Origins of the US Census in the 1780s03:55 Census Data and Policy: Medicaid, Representation, and Public Health05:24 The Census as a Marker of American History and Identity09:02 The Politicization of the Census and Slavery11:22 Current Debates: Changes Proposed by the Trump Administration14:08 Excluding Non-Citizens and Its Implications15:57 Race, Ethnicity, and the Evolution of Census Questions21:04 The 2030 Census: Discrimination or Liberation?28:49 Potential Impact of Proposed Changes on Policy and Society

The GOP is putting up a bumper crop of subpar candidates this cycle. Here’s our countdown of the five worst. Host: Anne Kim, Washington MonthlyGuest: Nate WeisbergChapters00:00 Introduction to problematic congressional candidates02:01 Common traits among problematic candidates: racism and white supremacy ties03:56 Top five candidates: Brandon Herrera and Texas 2305:28 Number four: Scott Perry and anti-Semitic associations08:54 Number two: Max Miller and family/political drama10:09 Number one: Ken Paxton and Texas corruption12:14 The race for Texas Senate and the threat of Ken Paxton13:00 A Democrat on the list: Darializa Chevalier14:34 Candidates with moral character: Dan Osborne, Roy Cooper, Adam Hamilton15:52 Candidates who inspire hope and positive change

Until fairly recently, one of the most valuable commoditiesin GOP politics was an endorsement by President Donald Trump. According to an analysis by political scientist Seth Masket and his colleagues, Trump-endorsed candidates enjoy as much as a 16-point advantage over their rivals. How did Trump establish such a grip over the RepublicanParty? Masket’s new book, The Elephants in the Room: How Trump Voters Seized the Party from Republican Leaders, seeks to answer that question. Masket concludes that the rise of xenophobic populism, along with the decline of the party establishment, may have made Trump’s ascent inevitable.  Host: Anne Kim, Washington MonthlyGuest: Seth Masket, University of DenverChapters00:00 Introduction and Seth Masket's main argument02:06 Historical roots of populism in America04:10 The rise of conservative media and echo chambers08:09 Structural reforms in party nomination processes12:06 The 2016 Trump nomination and party disorganization15:10 Trump's consolidation of power through endorsements17:59 Insights from county party chairs survey20:53 Future of the Republican Party post-Trump26:12 Parallels with Democratic insurgencies and leftist candidates27:52 Potential reforms for party balance and control

The think tank Third Way recently released what it calls a "new economic bargain" with the middle class. It's premised on the idea that "if you bust your butt, you should get ahead," says Executive Vice President for Policy Jim Kessler. The organization proposes a slate of 20 practical ideas it says will significantly improve the lives of middle-class Americans. Among these proposals: cheaper used car loans and a universal pension. Host: Anne Kim, Washington MonthlyGuest: Jim Kessler, Third WayChapters00:00 Introduction to the agenda and its importance01:59 The changing perception of the middle class04:04 Historical context and the evolution of middle class policies06:09 Core message: work should lead to getting ahead08:01 Proposal for federal guarantees on used car loans10:01 Work as a pathway to wealth and retirement security12:00 Party branding and electoral challenges13:58 Comparison with other policy proposals and think tanks16:09 Feasibility of big reforms like Medicare for All18:56 Addressing criticisms of incrementalism21:04 The impact of proposed policies on wealth and inequality23:05 Shared priorities across different political agendas23:58 Optimism for Democratic electoral prospects in 2028

A veteran pollster points to several factors wrecking polling’s reputation, including overhyped results and a sea of low-quality polls.Political polling has suffered some embarrassing  failures this year. In Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, polls predicted a blowout for Abdul El-Sayed; he won by less than a percentage point. In Wisconsin, polls showed Democratic SocialistFrancesca Hong enjoying double-digit leads in the gubernatorial primary; she narrowly lost to David Crowley. In truth, polls have always been unreliable. Longtime Democratic pollster Stefan Hankin, founder and CEOof Lincoln Park Strategies, explains the myriad of challenges currently facing, including a lack of enforceable professional standards to prevent bad polls from getting press. Host: Anne Kim, Washington MonthlyGuest: Stefan Hankin, Lincoln Park StrategiesChapters00:00 Introduction to polling failures in recent elections02:12 What makes a good, trustworthy poll?03:01 Sample size recommendations for state-wide polls04:09 The difficulty of predicting likely voters05:47 How pollsters select voter samples07:36 Response rates and reaching respondents08:38 Are polls becoming less reliable?12:02 Lack of enforcement in polling standards12:56 What went wrong in Michigan and Wisconsin15:43 Are polls overselling their accuracy?19:32 Prediction markets versus polls22:09 How much should we trust polls for November?24:22 How to responsibly interpret polling data28:10 The future of polling technology and methods29:45 The unpredictability of human behavior and polling

The CEO of the world’s first “female-forward” AI startuphas a plan for tackling gender bias in artificial intelligence.Host: Anne Kim, Washington MonthlyGuest, Shubhi Rao, CEO and Founder, UplevylChapters00:00 Introduction to AI bias and societal influence03:00 How large language models are trained and their data sources07:04 Societal biases reflected in AI, especially regarding gender12:03 Impact of data erasure on women-related research and information19:12 Uplevyl's approach to building specialized vertical LLMs22:08 Differences between vertical LLMs and commercial models25:09 Policy implications and standardization in AI development27:02 Advice for users to recognize and mitigate bias in AI responses

President Donald Trump's relentless attacks on vote by mail are needlessly threatening public trust in absentee voting. Learn the truth about vote by mail and the threats to its future. Host: Anne Kim, Washington MonthlyGuests: Phil Keisling, former Oregon Secretary of State; Barbara Smith Warner, Center for Responsive GovernmentChapters00:00 Introduction to vote by mail and its importance02:07 History and growth of vote at home states03:21 Demographics relying on vote at home04:36 Partisanship and vote at home expansion06:27 Addressing voter fraud claims and evidence08:02 Security features of mail ballots10:00 Impact of vote at home on election turnout12:16 Trump's executive order on Postal Service and mail voting13:00 Postal Service's role and security concerns15:19 Legal and constitutional issues with postal regulations17:41 Implementation challenges for election officials20:05 Supreme Court decisions and future challenges22:30 Implications for future elections and legal safeguards25:20 Election administration resilience and confidence29:45 Policy recommendations for Congress to protect vote by mail

1 in 5 voters who supported Donald Trump iin 2024 now regrets their vote, according to a new survey from Navigator Research. Inflation and war are their biggest complaints. But Democrats shouldn't count on their votes. "Trump regretters" remain deeply skeptical about both parties' ability to deliver on their promises. Host: Anne Kim, Washington MonthlyGuest: Tina Tang, Navigator ResearchChapters00:00 Introduction to Trump voter regret and its significance01:58 Demographic breakdown of regretters: age, race, gender03:53 Key issues driving regret: costs, war, broken promises05:52 Trust in parties and disillusionment among regretters07:58 How regret influences voting intentions and party trust09:51 The importance of everyday issues over cultural topics12:01 Messaging strategies for Democrats and Republicans13:54 Perceptions of party focus and voter priorities15:50 The role of news consumption and information seeking17:59 Future research plans and post-election follow-up

Recent weeks have seen an escalation of the Trumpadministration’s efforts to interfere with this fall’s elections. Itsaggressive efforts to restrict mail-in voting, for example, could potentially disenfranchise millions while sowing chaos in states. President Trump has also threatened to arrest election officers accused of wrongdoing (many of whom are volunteers) andto send ICE agents to the polls. The nonprofit Protect Democracy argues that all of theseactions are part of a larger scheme by the Trump administration to perpetuate election denialism, interfere with Americans’ right to vote, and thwart free and fair elections.  How can citizens be prepared when they go to the polls thisfall, and what they can do to protect themselves and others in their communities? Host: Anne Kim, Washington MonthlyGuest: Beau Tremitiere, Protect DemocracyChapters00:00 Introduction to election threats and Protect Democracy01:50 The three tactics: deception, disruption, denial03:50 How the federal government is undermining election integrity07:04 Civil society's response and mobilization08:54 Legal challenges and court rulings protecting elections11:09 The role of the Supreme Court and untested legal issues15:05 Voter suppression and intimidation tactics19:53 How to prepare and respond to election-related threats23:08 Responsible recording and reporting of election issues26:02 Resources and where to learn more