S7 Ep13: Pandemic, war and debt

Where is Europe’s economy vulnerable, and how can it manage that risk? A new joint report from CEPR and Bruegel investigates the challenges to economic security for Europe in the face of recent supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical shocks. Jean Pisani-Ferry is one of the editors of the report, and he talks to Tim Phillips about what has changed for Europe, and how we should respond. EUROPE’S ECONOMIC SECURITY, Paris Report 2. Editors Jean Pisani-Ferry, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer.

When a conflict ends, we know how minefields continue to destroy the lives of innocent people. But is there an economic, as well as a humanitarian, benefit to demining? Mounu Prem of Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance is one of the authors of a paper that provides the first estimates of the economic dividend when a minefield is cleared, using records from humanitarian operations in Colombia. He talks to Tim Phillips.

In March 2023, many experts supported an open letter that called for a six-month pause in giant AI experiments, and that development of these AIs should go ahead “only once we are confident that their effects will be positive, and their risks will be manageable”. In the second of our podcasts recorded at the 79th EP Panel, Tim Phillips asks Joshua Gans of the University of Toronto what might happen if we did pause AI adoption, and whether we should instead accelerate adoption of AI so that we can more quickly learn about its benefits and harms, and design better regulation as a result.

Recorded at the Spring 2024 Economic Policy Panel Meeting.  What will be the impact of AI on the labour market? Two new papers use the evidence from the early years of the 21st century to analyse who the winners and losers have been so far. Gino Gancia and Juan Jimeno analyse the labour markets of the US and Europe and tell Tim Phillips who the winners and losers have been so far.

This year’s World Economic Outlook report from the IMF features an intriguing piece of research that shows how rising policy rates bit harder in some countries than other because of differences in how existing mortgages are calculated, new mortgages are granted, and house prices. Rui Mano from the IMF’s Research Department tells Tim Phillips about how the housing channels of monetary policy help to squeeze out inflation, the variable impacts of rate hikes, and the risk of overtightening when householders can fix their mortgage repayments.

The Spanish Civil War that ended in 1939 was brutal and destructive. But does it still affect how Spanish people think and behave today, three generations later? Felipe Valencia Caicedo and Ana Tur-Prats talk to Tim Phillips about a legacy of distrust and poisoned political beliefs. Photo credit: Generalitat de Catalunya 

What do we learn from the way central banks around the world responded to post-pandemic inflation? A new ebook from CEPR Press collects contributions from both academics and the central bankers who took the decisions. It explores what they did and how well it worked – and suggests some lessons that will help policymakers cope with the next inflationary episode. Bill English, one of the editors, talks to Tim Phillips. Download the ebook: https://voxta.lk/MPresponse

Are markets acting efficiently when they price carbon risk? Alex Edmans talks to Alissa Kleinnijenhuis and Tim Phillips about how the earnings announcements of high emitters suggest mispricing of transition risk and argues that we should think of ESG is both extremely important – and nothing special.

Whether they war, disease or natural disasters, banks need to prepare for, and cope with, unexpected events. The third LTI report is published on 18 March by CEPR. Steven Ongena and Anna Pestova explain to Tim Phillips what the report reveals about how banks respond to these three types of disasters – and what that means for their customers.

Covid-19 and the war on Ukraine have challenged debt sustainability. Can our existing institutions meet that challenge? Following the release of the CEPR fifth annual report on The Future of Banking, Tim Phillips talks to  Jeromin Zettelmeyer about whether the existing framework and institutions for resolving debt crises can cope. And, if not, what might replace them.