"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the resurgence of prediction markets, the balance of sophisticated vs. 'dumb' money, Biden's nomination odds and the impact of AI on software economics. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- SPONSORS: BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://babbel.com/torenberg BEEHIIV: Head to beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812 --- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:20) Is this the Polymarket election? (08:55) Prediction markets (11:07) Politics and prediction markets (15:13) Sponsors: Babbel | Beehiiv (17:48) CrowdStrike and the cost of software failures (23:39) AI adoption and workplace dynamics (27:29) Financial systems post-Great Financial Crisis (35:02) USSR's computer network for economic planning (40:01) Best performing stock of the last 100 years (43:22) AI's impact on software and hardware economics (48:46) Market cycles and political influence (51:11) Dot-com crash, Y2K, and the housing bubble (54:28) Stripe and the future of private companies (59:12) Venture capital vs. Private equity returns (01:00:49) Outro --- LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik) https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)

On this week’s episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss how the 2024 presidential election has changed, why Wikipedia’s partisanship problem is difficult to solve, and the strategy behind Amazon’s media business. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- SPONSORS: BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://babbel.com/torenberg BEEHIIV: Head to beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812 --- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:20) Case for a boring campaign (01:49) Impact of Assassination Attempts (05:20) Sam Altman OpenAI analogy (06:24) Symbolism in the presidency (10:17) Role of determination in leadership (15:16) Presidents role (18:10) Sponsors: Babbel | Beehiiv (20:45) Vice presidential pick (25:16) Algorithmic collusion in real estate (29:48) David Gerard on Wikipedia (38:23) The 4chan of Crypto (42:14) Stable growth stocks (47:02) Amazon's media business strategy (53:16) Mission-driven vs. Vanity businesses (57:00) Benefits of liquidity in American markets (58:31) Outro --- LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik) https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive deep into David Graeber's controversial concept of 'Bullshit Jobs,' exploring its validity and impact. They also discuss the future of labor and employment in the era of AI, the intricate dynamics of globalization, and the complexities of corporate governance. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- SPONSORS: BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://babbel.com/torenberg BEEHIIV: Head to beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812 --- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:20) David Graeber's “Bullshit Jobs” (11:15) Meritocracy and word origins (14:01) Convergent evolution (16:04) Sponsors: Babbel | Beehiiv (18:39) Public intellectuals and broad theories (24:30) Automation and future of work (31:55) Corporate control and voting rights (38:46) Burden of knowledge (45:38) Robert Gordons thesis (52:41) Globalization and resource endowments (01:00:54) Outro --- LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik) https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)

On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss the evolution of monetary systems, the economics of AI investments, and how AI is impacting the job market for junior software developers. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- SPONSORS: BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://babbel.com/torenberg BEEHIIV: Head to beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812 --- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:21) Centralization and AI (03:32) Challenges of centralized planning with AI (04:20) Curtis Yarvin's influence on modern governance (09:53) Comparing government and corporate structures (14:22) Succession problem in governance (17:56) Sponsors: Babbel | Beehiiv (20:30) Tony Blair's insights on governance (29:43) Impact of AI on fame (33:16) Future of digital celebrities (36:15) Evolution of monetary systems (42:51) AI's economic impact and challenges (51:12) Changing job market for developers (59:04) Outro --- LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik) https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss a lesser-known Chamath Palihapitiya story, the index rebalancing trade as a postmodern part of finance, AI labs, crypto, and more. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. Byrne Hobart is hiring an associate! Check out the JD here: https://www.thediff.co/jobs/ 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- SPONSORS: BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://babbel.com/torenberg BEEHIIV: Head to beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812 --- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00:00) About the Show (00:00:20) Chamath, IAC, and Tinder (00:16:20) Sponsors: Babbel | Beehiiv (00:18:54) Chamath continued (00:18:54) Twitter, Threads (00:22:40) Twitter, Twitch (00:24:12) Twitter, API (00:28:37) Meme coins (00:32:10) The postmodernity of index rebalancing trades (00:35:37) S&P 500 inclusion and exclusion (00:40:52) Crypto, AI, and the Zeitgeist (00:42:14) Crypto (00:46:55) AI Labs (00:49:35) Why is it money intensive and talent intensive? (00:53:59) What should people study in college? (00:59:24) Byrne is hiring an associate! (01:02:13) Outro --- LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik) https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)

This week, writer Byrne Hobart and investor Erik Torenberg discuss the economics of conferences and cities, rise of meme stocks, future of coding in the age of AI and more. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at [email protected]. --- SPONSORS: BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://babbel.com/torenberg BEEHIIV: Head to beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812 --- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:20) Economics of conferences vs Economics of cities (04:09) Historical and modern city dynamics (06:02) Controversies and discussions at conferences (10:00) Rise of meme stocks and retail investors (17:38) Sponsor: Babbel | Beehiiv (20:10) High volatility in stocks (23:10) Cultural influence of 4chan and Reddit (28:33) Value capture in startups and capital structure (31:30) Exploring self-funding and investment strategies (37:14) Concept of cross-investing in people (45:05) Value of learning to code (50:15) Future of therapy in an AI-driven world (57:56) Impact of AI on engineering jobs (01:00:28) Comparing software and media (01:03:50) Wrap --- LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik) https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) --- For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact [email protected]

On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss populist cycles, why billionaires buy media companies, how to invest if you think AGI is coming soon, and more. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at [email protected]. --- SPONSORS: BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/zen BEEHIIV: Head to beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812 --- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:21) Populists vs technocrats (07:37) Role of media and influence (14:02) View on counter elites (15:41) Sponsor: Babbel | Beehiiv (18:51) Israel on PR war (22:59) On Big Tech Has No Power At All by Curtis Yarvin (26:42) Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover (30:14) Comparing media ownership: Bezos vs. Musk (38:42) Leopold Aschenbrenner’s situational awareness paper (44:26) Investing strategies in the age of AGI (46:38) Role of Venture Capital (50:05) High frequency trading explained (53:42) Prediction markets and information transmission (54:26) Wrap --- LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik) https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) --- For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact [email protected]

On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss Elon Musk's and Yann Lecun's Tweets, what we can learn from Google's API decumentation leaks, how Apple is planning on improving Siri, and more. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at [email protected]. --- SPONSORS: BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://babbel.com/MOZ. BEEHIIV: Head to beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Autopilot explores the adoption and rollout of AI in the industries that drive the economy and the dynamic founders bringing rapid change to slow-moving industries. From law, to hardware, to aviation, Will Summerlin interviews founders backed by Benchmark, Greylock, and more to learn how they're automating at the frontiers in entrenched industries. Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6YQZkKHN7EP2yWedAvSxBC?si=18377c69a2804333 Listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/autopilot-with-will-summerlin/id1738163836 --- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:21) Elon Musk's and Yann Lecun's Twitter exchange (02:26) Institutional decay (07:54) Activist campaign against Texas Instruments (16:36) Sponsors: Babbel | beehiiv (19:10) Poorly executed fraud from Getty investor (27:41) What we can learn from the Google API documentation leak (35:07) Apple's planned improvements for Siri (40:12) Wrap --- LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik) https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) --- For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact [email protected]

On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne talk about xAI's fundraising round, Vivek Ramaswamy's investment in BuzzFeed, and the dynamics of using ads to monetize AI. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at [email protected]. --- SPONSORS: beehiiv Head to beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Autopilot explores the adoption and rollout of AI in the industries that drive the economy and the dynamic founders bringing rapid change to slow-moving industries. From law, to hardware, to aviation, Will Summerlin interviews founders backed by Benchmark, Greylock, and more to learn how they're automating at the frontiers in entrenched industries. Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6YQZkKHN7EP2yWedAvSxBC?si=18377c69a2804333 Listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/autopilot-with-will-summerlin/id1738163836 --- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:21) xAI fundraising (12:11) Vivek Ramaswamy's majority stake in BuzzFeed & dynamics of media acquisitions (16:15) Sponsor: beehiiv (30:03) Changes in private equity (35:44) Does AI hurt wordcels or shape rotators? (39:21) Looking at new FTX documents (44:58) Will AI be monetized mostly through ads? (53:04) Against trusting dystopian science fiction stories (57:11) Wrap --- LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik) https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) --- For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact [email protected]

On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne talk about meme stocks, the nature of reserve currencies, and why you should consider not owning a home in America. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at [email protected]. --- SPONSORS: beehiiv Head to beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝 Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Autopilot explores the adoption and rollout of AI in the industries that drive the economy and the dynamic founders bringing rapid change to slow-moving industries. From law, to hardware, to aviation, Will Summerlin interviews founders backed by Benchmark, Greylock, and more to learn how they're automating at the frontiers in entrenched industries. Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6YQZkKHN7EP2yWedAvSxBC?si=18377c69a2804333 Listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/autopilot-with-will-summerlin/id1738163836 Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:27) The case against home ownership (06:07) The U.S. Dollar as a reserve currency (17:49) Sponsor: beehiiv (18:59) Colluding in the oil industry (24:57) Meme stocks (27:40) Why it's hard to copy Renaissance Technologies (36:40) The shutdown of Weiss Multi-Strategy (40:16) Alternative financial histories (45:46) How NewBank attracts talent (49:46) App store dynamics (52:17) Optimal financial education (56:59) Investing in people (01:01:28) Wrap --- LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik) https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) --- For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact [email protected]