The Gulf Stream Blues Podcast

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit davekeating.substack.comLast night at the new Waterstones English bookstore in Brussels, former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt and I discussed our books Defeating Trumpism and The Owned Continent. It was in the inaugural event at Waterstones’ new upper town location on Avenue Louise.In his book, Verhofstadt (who was Belgian prime minister from 1999 to 2008 and almost became EU Commission president before he was vetoed by Tony Blair, partly as punishment for opposing the Iraq War) writes about the leadership vacuum that Europe has experienced over the past two decades. He bemoans the “pragmatic” leadership that has dominated Europe in the Merkel era, in which voters have been given nothing to believe in and no grand vision to look toward. “Politics is no longer based on values, but on a ‘cost-benefit analysis’, and is practiced by politicians without prophetic vision,” he writes. “They have all been replaced by average administrators: Merkel, Holland, Scholz, or Starmer.”EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen obviously also fits into this category. This “pragmatic” leadership is the same that told us that surrendering to Trump over and over in 2025 would benefit Europe by avoiding his wrath and keeping the US committed to Ukraine. Instead, Trump kept coming back to Europe with more extortion and he has abandoned Ukraine anyway – cutting off all aid except intelligence-sharing (which is now also in doubt after the Starlink betrayal). Who today really has confidence that Trump will honour Article 5 if Russia invades the Baltics? What did all those concessions buy us in the end?But the Trump surrender is just one part of a wider European story which Guy gets to the heart of in his book. In short: for the past two decades our European leaders have not provided leadership. They are European followers, without ideas for Europe’s future other than blindly following the US because that is the “pragmatic” thing to do given Europe’s dependence on America.This is actually the topic of the new book I’ve written this year, Europe’s Lost Decades. It traces the eight EU crises I covered between 2005 and 2025 and debunks the myth that Europe “only acts in crisis”. In fact, I argue, the EU moved forward during a period of relative lack of crisis, from 1985 to 2005, but it moved backwards during the 2005-2025 omnicrisis period. Leaders dithered and short-term thinking prevailed. They would in the end put in place just-in-time solutions doing the bare minimum of what was needed to prevent collapse: the ‘whatever it takes’ bailout and fiscal oversight to solve the euro crisis, the migration package, the Covid eurobonds, the EU SAFE instrument getting involved in defence for the first time. But each time, after the new ‘federal’ instruments were created, national governments almost immediately started undermining them into irrelevance. Nowhere is this more true than the European Semester exercise of fiscal oversight. I’m currently shopping the manuscript around to publishers, and the bew book should come out mid next year.During last night’s event, I argued that in order to hold off the far-right tide (which we both noted that people are now starting to talk about as an inevitability) centrist leaders who believe in liberal democracy need to provide citizens with something to believe in. We need to bring ideology back. And an ideology that I believe can inspire people is European Sovereigntism. We need to take back control of the word sovereignty from the nationalists, and explain to people (as Enrico Letta recently said) that “national sovereignty against European sovereignty is fake.” There is no way for the individual nation-states of Europe, including France and Britain, to be powerful on their own in the 21st century. On their own, they will only be pawns of the superpowers.As I often put it: British people face a choice. They can either be non-voting vassals of the United States of America, or voting members of the European Union. If leaders can provide that vision for the future of Europe, and expose the hollow promises of the nationalist far right, then they may be able to hold back the tide. If they can’t, they will be out of a job very soon. Nationalism can be fought with Europeanism. Those centrists who still believe in liberal democracy need to end this decades-long retreat from “isms”, and realise that politics without ideology will never inspire people.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit davekeating.substack.comCan Europe ever get to a point where it can defend itself without American support? It’s clear we’re not at that point right now. If Russia invades tomorrow and the Americans say sorry you’re on you’re own, Putin can have his way with us. Europe is lacking two things: sufficient weapons production capacity and the ability to coordinate the defence of th…

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit davekeating.substack.comYesterday, while on the train from Barcelona to Strasbourg, I wrote a post asking whether Europe is on the verge of an 1848 moment. After I published, I had a three hour stop to transfer trains in Lyon. While there, I saw the still-smouldering ruins of the 174-year old Bellecour Pavilion that was burned down by rioters on Saturday. People were gathered around staring at it – stunned, silent and scared. Perhaps this sounds overdramatic, but in that moment I had a flashback to when I was in New York on 9/11, standing with other stunned people looking at the aftermath of the attack. It’s obviously not a comparable situation at all. But it triggered in me this memory of being at a turning point – and having no idea what comes next.I’m now in Strasbourg at the European Parliament plenary session. The violence in France has prevented some people who were supposed to be at the plenary and conferences alongside it from coming. French ministers couldn’t come because they have been forbidden from leaving Paris – as I understand it, partly for their own safety (but also to coordinate the response). A delegation from Japan that was supposed to come for an event was apparently told by their government that France is not safe to go to at the moment. So, how are MEPs and EU officials feeling about being here at the epicentre of these pan-European protests? I’ve been speaking to them about what they think the rioting means and how it can be addressed. In this video for paid subscribers I run through what I’ve been hearing. The consistent message: people feel it is becoming more and more likely that the far right is about to take power across Europe on a platform to restoring law and order and “remigrating” non-white people – with the support of Moscow and Washington. And that is terrifying.As I explain in the video, violence at French protests is nothing new and scenes like this are not new either. What is new is that this is spreading across Europe – and that is very rare. Protestors in Germany, Italy, Belgium in Spain are citing the French riots as inspiration. The social media images of burning buildings and assaults against police are circulating across borders. As I wrote yesterday, the causes for the protests are national. People are not protesting the European Union. But the feeling is becoming increasingly European. And that will have big implications for this continent’s future.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit davekeating.substack.comIn this special video for my paid subscribers, I walk through what it is that the Northern European countries have come into this EU summit demanding – and why the other 21 member states, the Commission and the Parliament are all furious with them for it.Then I talk about the stupidity of the new “emergency break” on EU legislation proposed by Merz, Meloni and De Wever – which would cancel legislation they themselves designed and voted on just months earlier.Past posts mentioned in this video:

On 29 August, Iceland will hold a referendum on whether to start talks on joining the European Union. Ahead of that vote, the Conservative Brexiteer and former member of the European Parliament Daniel Hannan wrote an op-ed last week telling Icelanders they have a great arrangement being in the European Economic Area, having access to the EU’s single market without having to be in the EU, and they should stick with that rather than joining.Nowhere in the piece does he mention that as part of the single market, Iceland has to follow EU laws except in agriculture and fisheries policies. Nor does he mention that, because they aren’t an actual member but rather a pseudo-member, Iceland doesn’t get to vote on these laws. And that’s because, like all Brexiteers, he approaches everything under the false pretext that the EU is not a democracy and laws are dictated by bureaucrats. So if the laws are dictated by bureaucrats either way, why bother being a full member?Except that’s not true. The EU has a bicameral legislature made up of a directly-elected lower house (the EU Parliament) representing the people and an upper house made up of national ministers representing the governments (just like the Bundesrat in Germany, or the US Senate until a century ago). The Commission may propose laws, but the legislature fundamentally changes them and nothing becomes law without their approval. I decided to make this video from Barcelona explaining two things that are not well-understood: that the EU is a democracy and that it has a government. I saw the degree to which people don’t understand this in the reaction to an op-ed published this week in The Guardian by Alberto Alemanno explaining how the far right has entered the EU’s government. Many people seemed confused by the idea because they don’t think of the EU as having a government. And, particularly in the UK where the issue of the EU has become a polemic subject with many misunderstandings, I saw many pro-EU people aghast at the idea that the EU could be bad. But as I noted on BlueSky, the EU is not innately good or bad. Just like a country, it depends on what government is running it. The EU has been governed by the centre-right European Peoples Party for two decades, and recently that party has entered into an ad-hoc alliance with the far right. As Alemanno explains in the op-ed, this has resulted in a situation where the far right is calling the shots without even technically being in the governing coalition: a situation very similar to what’s happening in many European national governments now.What makes Hannan’s argument all the more absurd is that Brexiteers told British referendum voters they would have single market access after Brexit, but then once it became clear they would need to follow EU law in order to get it (without being able to vote on it), they said this would be unconscionable and the UK ended up with a hard Brexit. So apparently such a humiliating arrangement is good enough for Iceland, but not for a mighty empire like Britain.Incidentally, Hannan also doesn’t mention that as an EEA member Iceland already pays for its EU single market access. He pretends that its EU budget contribution as a member state would be an entirely new cost. I honestly don’t know if these types of op-eds are the result of ignorance or malice, but the end result is the same: the public is misled.Here are some of the links I mention in the video: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davekeating.substack.com/subscribe

EU home affairs ministers held an emergency video summit yesterday to discuss the Ceuta crisis. By the time they met, almost all of the estimated 72,000 people who crossed into the Spanish territory last Thursday had been returned to Morocco. None were able to leave Africa and make it to the EU mainland. Logically then, the question should have turned to establishing why and how 72,000 people were allowed by Moroccan authorities to stream into the Spanish enclave.But the ministers were not interested in asking questions - even if many politicians in Spain are. The purpose of yesterday’s meeting was damage control - to try to pretend there was European unity on this issue when there very clearly had not been. Morocco was not mentioned at all. Reportedly that was at the insistence of Spain - which is worried about Moroccan retaliation if they point the finger of blame at Rabat.Julien Hoez and I both wrote this week about what disgraceful moment this was for Europe, so we came together today to do a Substack live to discuss the latest. I’m in Spain and based on my conversations with people here I can tell you there is abolute fury with the EU about the lack of solidarity shown. In his piece on The French Dispatch today, Julien explored the evidence for this being a hybrid attack by Morocco and why European governments are not only unwilling to investigate it, but are also paying Morocco off as a result of the crisis.More on the leaked US State department memo that said the US should support rival claims to European overseas territories like Ceuta and the Falklands as punishment for Europe not joining the Iran War here.Substack posts mentioned in this video: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davekeating.substack.com/subscribe

Ireland took over the rotating presidency of the EU Council this week, and while here covering the launch I stopped by the Port of Cork in Cobh, formerly known as Queenstown. From here at “Heartbreak Pier”, where I’m standing in the video, my great great great grandfather Daniel Keating Jr immigrated to New York in 1860. This was the last thing in Europe he ever saw.He was escaping wretched poverty and starvation as a result of the potato famine, which had hit his town of Skibbereen outside Cork particularly hard. He sailed to America in search of a better life - and more than anything, in search of hope. He might have been bemused to know that 146 years later, his great great great grandson would make the same journey in reverse. Not for economic necessity as was the case for him, but also in search of hope.In this video shot in Cobh port, I talk about how when I emigrated from the United States to Europe at the end of 2006, people in both the US and EU couldn’t quite grasp the concept. The US doesn’t have a tradition of emigration, only immigration. We’re taught from a young age, in both Europe and America, that the US is the place where dreams come true. Why would anyone leave? Having grown up in American society, I wasn’t all that surprised that people in the US didn’t quite get the idea that I was leaving and did not have the intention of coming back. But what really took me aback was that Europeans also didn’t get it. Time after time, I encountered confusion at the idea that I would leave the US and not want to go back.So on this 4th of July, I reminisced about this time period, back before the Trump era when Europeans found it strange that an American would want to leave America. It’s a topic that’s been coming up a lot during the readings and interviews for the French edition of my book, Le Continent Captif. I’ve stressed this idea of being an emigrant rather than an “expat”. But I’ve also stressed how different this experience is for an American vs any other immigrant, because we can never really escape our home country. It follows us wherever we go.I hope you enjoy the video, and happy 4th of July for those who celebrate. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davekeating.substack.com/subscribe

Italian-American relations have been thrown into chaos this week after a very public spat between Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. But as I wrote earlier this week, this is about much more than who asked who for a selfie. This was an abrupt change of strategy not just for Meloni, a former Trump ally, but for Europe as a whole. The far-right Italian primer minister is one of if not the most politically smart leaders we have in the EU right now, and she is without a doubt the most powerful woman in Europe. So the fact that she has chosen this moment to publicly break with Trump tells us a lot about the point of weakness the US president is now at following the Iran War debacle.I talked about what the Meloni-Trump spat means for Europe, and whether other leaders will follow her in growing a spine, with Luke Johnson from the Public Sphere Substack. We also talked about the backstory behind the treaties governing the use of US bases in Europe, the context behind all this that was largely missing from a lot of the media coverage. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davekeating.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit davekeating.substack.comOn Thursday night, at the June European Council summit, EU prime ministers and presidents discussed whether they should switch to a tougher strategy on EU-China relations. Frustrations with China dumping exports into the EU market (while not allowing EU companies access to the Chinese market) have reached boiling point. Even Bejing’s biggest European trade partner Germany is ready to do something about it (or at least, that’s what Chancellor Olaf Scholz is saying publicly).But not everyone is in agreement. While France (backed by Italy) is pushing for a tougher line, Germany has been more reticent while Spain has questioned the wisdom of starting a trade war with China just as Europe is being abandoned (and threatened) by its longtime ally the United States.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit davekeating.substack.comOn 4 June, Le Continent Captif, the French edition of my book The Owned Continent, was published.I’m now doing promotion rounds for the book in French (keep an eye on the events section of the website) and the first stop was a reading at Librebook multilingual bookshop in the expat-heavy Brussels neighbourhood of Ixelles. It follows a reading of the English book there in March.Thanks to everyone who came out for the reading, we had a really good discussion there with some excellent questions. The reviews are coming in from France. This one from l’Express has a headline focused on one very small part of the book saying European federalists should embrace the fact that English has become a lingua franca for the union understood by more than half of EU citizens. I knew this would strike a nerve in France, which has fiercely resisted this development for years. But it’s really not at all the point of the book, I’m not even advocating for any action on that front! I’m simply asking for people in France to stop denying the current linguistic reality in Europe.Anyway the review itself is quite positive and focuses on the actual topic of the book (resisting American dominance), I think the headline editor just saw a click-bait opportunity to lead with this one small part of the review. Fair enough, I guess I shouldn’t complain if it gets more people to read it. But I really hope I don’t end up getting sidetracked by this one point in all my French interviews, it really isn’t important enough to merit such long debate in my opinion. But I know other people feel differently, and I’m willing to defend my position that resisting English is counter-productive for Europe.You can purchase the French or the English edition at Librebook, Waterstones or The European Bookshop in Brussels. For more purchasing options, click here.