Don't Fight the Fed

Gary Mishuris of Silver Ring Value Partners talks about today's market being one of the most challenging periods for bottom-up investing since 2007. In terms of the quality of a business versus its stock price, there isn't a lot of opportunity right now. But he emphasizes that transparency and candor with clients is essential, as is prioritizing the long-term process over short-term performance. (5:19) Next, Gary describes what sets Silver Ring Value apart from other fund managers. He shares why he left the "sausage factory" of larger firms behind, how his firm makes money for clients rather than off of clients, and how his unique temperament and behavioral models allow him to make better investing decisions. (14:38) Gary also goes into detail on the psychology behind investing and compares it with a game of poker. He talks about trying to avoid making mistakes, continuously learning from past errors, the importance of having guardrails in place, and cutting your losses. (21:44) Then, Gary explains why you should never be ashamed to change your mind, even when you haven't received any new information. It's OK to reanalyze the same set of facts and admit that you were wrong, and he cites several examples of investors who have learned and grown from their past mistakes. (31:21) Lastly, Dan and Corey discuss the consumer price index and gold. Inflation came in hotter than expected, while gold has broken out to new highs. Dan and Corey speculate on how long gold's bull run can last. Plus, they detail gold being a good hedge for retirement against the government's money-printing addiction. (48:18)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing inflation staying persistently higher, rampant government spending and money-printing, and the repercussions of the Federal Reserve's decade-plus of low interest rates. (0:41) Next, Cambria Investment Management's Meb Faber joins the conversation to talk about the exchange-traded funds ("ETFs") at Cambria and why the team focuses on shareholder yield when picking stocks for these ETFs. He breaks down the importance of shareholder yield in mega-bubble markets like today's and urges investors to pay more attention to it. (24:25) Meb then discusses managing risk on a portfolio level, including focusing on quality and value. He also covers why emerging and foreign markets are so attractive today, the opportunity in fixed-income investments like bonds and Treasury bills, and how higher interest rates have changed the game. (38:21) Finally, Meb describes himself as a value investor and shares which areas of the economy he's most concerned about. He talks about inflation driving commodities sharply higher, gold hitting new highs, and why investing at all-time highs can still be a smart choice. (56:43)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by reviewing the most recent PCE number, what's happening with inflation, and the current state of the economy. (0:41) Next, real estate expert and entrepreneur George Gammon joins the conversation and explains how he became a self-described "macro addict" without any formal education in the world of finance or economics. Plus, he discusses why he considers himself a libertarian and why most investors and billionaires would fall into this category, even if they don't self- identify as such. (21:59) Further, George describes how his investment style is influenced by being a libertarian. By default, his view is that the government is always going to do the wrong thing, resulting in unintended, net-negative consequences. George also goes into detail on the similarities between value investing and trend following. He argues that successful value investors are always looking for a catalyst so that they can catch the trend at its very beginning stages, while stereotypical investors are happy to catch the middle portion of the trend. (34:16) Lastly, George explores the biggest differences between retail investors and professional investors. He details the strategy that the best hedge-fund managers use: starting with a macro view and then looking at the fundamentals and the narrative later. George emphasizes that these experts spend most of their time deciding how to position themselves and using asymmetry to stack the odds in their favor like in a game of blackjack. (46:32)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by arguing against the Federal Reserve potentially cutting rates this year. They point out that inflation is persistently volatile, gas prices are soaring and hurting everyday consumers, and the Fed is "pretending that everything is OK," according to Corey. Dan also brings up the fact that 2024 being an election year may have something to do with this. (0:43) Next, Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet joins the conversation to discuss the biotech industry. He explains that he doesn't see biotech as a sector, and rather he looks bottom up at biotech companies to find a drug that will have a macroeconomic effect. Because only 6% of drugs that start a Phase I trial succeed, he says being selective is crucial. Dave also describes the three phases of drug testing and the importance of efficacy and safety data. (17:55) After, Dave talks all things weight-loss drugs. He reflects on how he knew Ozempic was going to be a blockbuster drug from his boots-on-the-ground research, the incredible room for growth in this area, and the unprecedented amounts of money that biotech companies are spending on factories to develop these weight-loss drugs. (24:36) Further, Dave discusses why the obesity epidemic has worsened over the decades and how exactly weight-loss drugs work to increase metabolism and suppress appetite. It involves something he calls the "winter switch." Plus, Dave brings up the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approving these drugs for the purpose of reducing strokes and heart attacks by nearly 20%. (32:40) Lastly, Dave talks about the widespread economic implications behind weight-loss drugs and other areas of the market that could be impacted, such as the airline industry. However, Dave emphasizes once again that any mass changes are still years away due to supply constraints. (41:20)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing both bubbles and "anti-bubble" stocks. Dan mentions how the S&P 500 Index's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, with data going back to 1871, is currently in the top 1%. He even believes this is the biggest mega- bubble in all of recorded history. (0:41) Next, Porter & Co. analyst Erez Kalir joins the conversation and shares his financial philosophy. He talks about investing legends who have influenced his investing style, the importance of avoiding labels, and how successful investing is similar to using a Swiss Army knife. Plus, Erez explains the yin and yang of macroeconomics versus security-specific fundamentals and how there are extreme periods where one can entirely dominate the other. (13:00) After, Erez goes into detail about biotech – the sector's history in the stock market, how it's shaped by interest rates, and how you can find companies trading at an extreme discount with negative enterprise value. He argues that not being able to time the markets is merely a myth, and he shares the seven factors he uses to evaluate whether a biotech stock is worth buying. (21:59) Lastly, Erez explains why the conditions are right for biotech stocks today. He covers the sector being hated and how this gives savvy investors a chance to break away from the herd and profit. (38:36)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing famed economist Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini and his current bullish stance. They explore whether Dr. Doom is correct in his optimism, if gold's new all-time highs are here to stay, and what could happen next with bitcoin. (0:41) Next, Stansberry Research editor Brett Eversole joins the conversation and talks about where he thinks stocks will go this year thanks to the election. After, he analyzes the overall health of the market using several different metrics, urges investors to invest based on the size of a company's market capitalization, gives his thoughts on whether small-cap stocks can catch up to the rest of the market, and reviews moments of extreme volatility in history. (16:49) Further, Brett describes a shareholder yield fund and how it works. He points out that if you buy companies that return a lot of cash to shareholders, those companies tend to go up a lot over time. He also discusses the strategies he uses in his True Wealth publication to find winning stocks, buy in at the right time, and protect capital. (29:35) Finally, Brett explains why he isn't investing in individual Chinese stocks today, but he provides one unique way to still profit from China that you may have never heard of. (47:15

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing Warren Buffett's recent letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. In it, he honored his late colleague and friend Charlie Munger, plus gave updates on some of Berkshire's businesses. Dan and Corey also cover Apple switching its resources over from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence. (0:41) Next, Rick Rule – president and CEO of Rule Investment Media – joins the conversation. He goes into depth on models, such as the discounted cash flow model. He talks about the flaws with models, why models are only useful for apples-to-apples comparisons, and how a model can be used on exploration companies or similar companies that don't have revenues. (24:32) After, Rick goes into detail on the uranium market. He describes why uranium companies have mothballed production, what makes uranium so unique in the natural resources world, the differences between the spot and term markets, and how to interpret uranium companies' financials. (33:18) Lastly, Rick calls out several commodities that present good investing opportunities today. He describes one of them as "stupidly cheap"... another he says is hated by investors and its market is in disarray... and the final two, he explains, are being sold off because of an incorrect belief that we don't need internal-combustion engines anymore. Rick even goes one step further and namedrops specific companies that could be worth looking into to take advantage of these price discounts. (49:15)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing new highs in the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index, and chipmaker Nvidia's stock. They analyze what these new highs mean, whether the U.S. is still in a mega-bubble, what's happening with the Japanese economy, and if Nvidia can continue its outperformance. (0:41) Next, Chaikin Analytics Chief Market Strategist Pete Carmasino joins the conversation and describes his investing style. He notes that he mainly looks at price. By using technical analysis and studying the fundamentals, trends, and the relative strength versus the market, he can decipher whether a stock is overbought. (20:28) Further, Pete talks about the importance of risk management and taking advantage of tactical moves. He gives investors advice for how to determine when something is a tactical sell or a tactical buy, discusses the relationship between technicals and fundamentals, and explains why he looks at both offensive and defensive sectors for investing opportunities.(25:55) Pete then details why he's never too bullish or bearish at any given time, plus how the Chaikin Analytics Power Gauge system helps him find potential winners. He describes his process for interpreting the signals and discusses the fundamentals he needs to see to be interested in a stock. (39:47) Lastly, Pete hammers home the importance of rates – particularly the unemployment rate, since the Federal Reserve uses it to determine the federal-funds rate. He also shares the top five subsectors currently and names a few stocks within those sectors that could be worth keeping an eye on. (51:15)

Dan and Corey kick things off by discussing bitcoin hitting a new multiyear high. They also critique a popular bullish argument for bitcoin, which is based off the U.S. dollar collapsing. After, they talk about the S&P 500 Index surpassing 5,000 for the first time ever and whether this level is sustainable in the long term. (0:40) Next, Harley Bassman of Simplify Asset Management joins the conversation and explains a concept called "convexity." He covers the three kinds of risk in bond investing, why short convexity is always lurking during market downturns, and why negative convexity is so difficult for investors to process. (24:53) Harley also goes into detail on mortgage-backed securities funds. He describes what mortgage bonds are, why they yield more than corporate bonds, and how the Federal Reserve plays a huge role in all of this. (32:20)  Lastly, Harley talks about Simplify and how it offers a unique service by jamming derivatives of all kinds (futures, options, etc.) into ETFs so civilians can invest in them. He also discusses what it was like working at Merrill Lynch during the great financial crisis, gives general investing advice, and explains what pin risk is. (48:55)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing debt spirals, death spirals, their effect on  things like GDP and economic growth, and the increasing reliance on debt spending. They point out that the U.S. government's annual interest payment on debt will soon surpass the budget for national defense. Dan also speculates that the government is using illegal immigration as a means to depress wages. (0:41) Next, crypto expert Eric Wade joins the conversation by discussing his current thoughts on the crypto market as a whole. He notes that the U.S. just approved bitcoin spot ETFs, which will allow investors to profit from bitcoin without actually holding the token. He also brings up the bitcoin halving that's happening this April, AI's role in crypto, and how crypto is being used to solve real-world problems. Eric briefly name-drops two such cryptos that have real- world applications today. (22:08)After, he goes into detail on his new book called America vs. Americans: How Capitalism Has Failed a Capitalist Nation and What We Can Do About It. This book focuses on American "laborism," the shortcomings of our current capitalist system, and how all of this could be improved. Eric describes that government, economics, and politics are a lot closer together than they should be. He explores the history of capitalism and talks about the glaring flaws of the economic system that preceded it – mercantilism. (35:30) Eric then transitions into talking about laborism and how it could be an upgrade from capitalism. He spends the rest of the episode detailing how it could pull millions of folks out of poverty, why it would be so closely tied to education, and the fact it would call for a hard currency and a smaller government with less government intervention. As he explains, it could solve many of the country's problems. (42:35)