Beware the Market's 'Expectations Bubble'

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Martin "Marty" Fridson back to the show. Marty is an author and expert in the field of high-yield bond investing. He is also a senior analyst at Porter & Co.'s Distressed Investing newsletter. Marty kicks off the show by discussing the top-down view of the high-yield market. He comments that right now, there is a very small risk premium. Marty breaks down the factors that he uses in his model of fair value and concludes that the high-yield market is extremely overvalued. At the same time, the market is forecasting a higher default rate than credit- ratings agency Moody's. Marty also gives his opinion on whether we'll see a recession, what it means that the inverted yield curve has not yet resulted in a recession, and why he's less critical of the Federal Reserve than other investors. (1:39) Next, Marty explains that the current situation of the federal-funds rate and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moving in opposite directions is not rare. He says it happens 40% of the time. This segues to a discussion about what's happening with the junk-bond market... including companies potentially having to roll over their debt to higher rates... and private credit lenders now competing with high-yield bond buyers. Marty then names which sectors present attractive buying opportunities today. (18:03) Finally, Marty goes further in depth about his quantitative model and what data it draws upon to find attractively priced distressed debt. He then explains that because high-yield bonds aren't very liquid, exchange-traded funds centered around these investments tend to have a lot of variance in performance. This can have serious consequences in times of extreme market disruption. (34:12)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Edwin Dorsey to the show. Edwin conducts deep, investigative analyses of public companies in his newsletter, The Bear Cave. By prioritizing customer relations and common-sense logic over financial data, he can gain an edge and find troubled companies for his subscribers before Wall Street does. Edwin kicks off the show by explaining how he got his start doing short-selling research and how he identifies prime opportunities for shorting. Rather than focusing on the financials, he hunts for $1 billion to $10 billion companies in the technology or consumer sector with bad customer relationships. Edwin shares case studies of how he discovered safety issues at two child-focused companies. The first was caregiver platform Care.com, which wasn't properly vetting its caregivers. The second is Roblox, which has ongoing issues with child predators and gambling. (0:39) Next, Edwin talks about why candy maker Hershey could face long-term issues now that trendy competitor Feastables is steadily stealing market share and doing a better job of appealing to the younger generation. As he points out, most investors tend to be older and male, so there are often blind spots for companies catering to youth and female demographics. Edwin also makes his bearish case for the predatory fitness-center company Planet Fitness. With the Federal Trade Commission working to make canceling memberships easier, this is bound to hurt the stock. (24:12) Finally, Edwin names several companies that are doomed thanks to the rise of artificial-intelligence technology. He highlights call-center businesses and tax-service providers in particular, but also warns of downstream effects. After, Edwin talks more about how he first got interested in the financial world, how he learned that the numbers don't matter if the underlying business is not sustainable, and how he picks which stocks to go long. (40:23)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Austin Root. Austin is an old friend and the chief investment officer at Stansberry Asset Management ("SAM"). SAM is a separate company from Stansberry Research and MarketWise, but it was born with the same DNA. The difference is, SAM helps individual investors optimize their portfolios. Austin kicks off the show by discussing his favorite moments from last week's Stansberry Conference & Alliance Meeting. After, he shares what his role is at SAM and how the company helps individual investors with financial planning. Austin explains that SAM's team of specialists will look at an investor's full balance sheet – not just the part SAM is managing – and then make a personalized plan from there using projections. He emphasizes that paying down expensive credit-card debt is the most important first step, and he breaks down how macro factors influence SAM's strategies. (0:46) Next, Austin talks about why investors should be in productive assets rather than cash, why he sees gold as inferior to shares of world-class businesses, and how bitcoin can be a good long-term store of value. He also names two stocks he finds particularly attractive right now. The first is a financial company that is trading at a discount, is poised for double-digit revenue growth, and serves as an inflation hedge. The second is a construction-materials company with a fantastic shareholder yield of nearly 10%. (24:59) Finally, Austin explains why investors should keep politics out of their portfolios for the long term. He says inflation is the one factor he always pays attention to and everything else is noise. Austin does note, though, that he has loaded up on defense stocks for the short term since geopolitical tensions are rising around the globe. But overall, he says both candidates want to spend like mad and will be bad for the economy in the long run. (45:29)   Disclosure: Stansberry Asset Management ("SAM") is a Registered Investment Adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. File number: 801-107061. Such registration does not imply any level of skill or training. Under no circumstances should this report or any information herein be construed as investment advice, or as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or other financial instruments.  Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC ("Stansberry Research") is not a current client or investor of SAM. SAM provides cash compensation to Stansberry Research for Stansberry Research's advisory client solicitation services for the benefit of SAM. Material conflicts of interest may exist due to Stansberry Research's economic interest in soliciting clients for SAM. Certain Stansberry Research personnel may also have limited rights and interests relating to one or more parent entities of SAM.

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Marc Chaikin back to the show. Marc is a Wall Street veteran with 50-plus years of total market experience. He's also the founder and CEO of our corporate affiliate, Chaikin Analytics. He joins the show to share some of his vast wisdom with listeners, from the hottest sectors around to why you shouldn't get spooked by all the volatility. Marc kicks off the show by making his bullish case for the markets. However, he notes that this rising tide has not lifted all boats equally... He lists off several sectors that are particularly attractive to him today, plus a few he's staying away from. Marc also talks a bit about JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon's prediction for a financial hurricane, the outlook for energy stocks, what's going on in China to make stocks so volatile, how the Federal Reserve has been doing, and the U.S.'s shift from a manufacturing economy to a service economy. (0:39) Next, Marc emphasizes that the key to profiting as an investor is to avoid making broad economic predictions. He says that different sets of data can give you conflicting signals, so it's not worth your time trying to guess the unknowable future. Instead, you should pay attention only to momentum and earnings. Marc then criticizes financial reporting by the mainstream media, advises listeners to take advantage of current volatility rather than run from it, and highlights the bullish setups in nuclear and software stocks thanks to AI. (18:56) Finally, Marc urges investors to not get bearish while the S&P 500 Index is having its best year since 1997. He points out that, as the dot-com mania showed us, the bull run can continue for several more years. As long as profit margins continue to rise, you want to be invested. He also explains how he uses his Power Gauge system to avoid doomed stocks. This leads to a conversation about Marc's new upcoming newsletter that will focus on what the "smart money" is buying and allow him to spot "pockets of strength." Plus, Marc weighs in on mining stocks. (38:38)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Jonathan Shaffner to the podcast. Jon is a retired U.S. Army colonel with 25 years of service who currently works as the director of federal business development at MBO Partners. MBO specializes in delivering solutions that make it safer and easier for enterprise organizations and top independent professionals to work together. Jon kicks off the show by discussing NATO's increased presence in Europe, through the lens of his own military experience. He posits that modern wars are more ideology-based than previous ones. This leads to Jon talking about his years in Afghanistan and Iraq. After, he shares what MBO does and how it helps companies (especially in defense and health care) build better workforces. (1:00) Next, Jon puts government spending into an investing context. He notes that through all the inefficiency and bloat, there are definite winners and losers of government contracts. He also breaks down his and MBO's involvement in helping to create value for the companies that have been awarded these contracts. Jon cites data usage as the biggest need he's seeing right now. Companies have massive amounts of data but don't know what to do with it or how to implement it. (23:05) Finally, Jon talks about how MBO finds contractors, the possibility of it going public someday, and its research on the gig economy. He then explores what could happen with the two major ongoing wars affecting the U.S. today: Russia versus Ukraine and Israel versus Hamas. Jon predicts that the war in Ukraine will be over within 18 months, but he says the war in the Middle East is much more complicated thanks to the Houthis. (42:41)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Brendan Ahern to the show. Brendan is the chief investment officer at asset manager KraneShares. The company provides investors access to Chinese companies, climate investments, and uncorrelated assets through exchange-traded funds. Brendan kicks off the show by describing the basics of KraneShares and its involvement in Chinese markets. He discusses the recent surge in Chinese stocks and gives context for what's driving it. As Brendan explains, the country is focused on stabilizing real estate prices and stimulating the broader economy. By lowering interest rates and announcing loads of subsidies that will benefit its citizens, the government can increase domestic consumption at a crucial time. (0:43) Next, Brendan talks about China's negative reputation due to Western disinformation and political rhetoric. As almost all U.S. investors are implicitly involved with China, and as the majority of Western companies outsource to China, our economy depends on the foreign nation. Brendan also discusses the influence U.S. investors have had on Chinese companies in regard to corporate governance... billionaire hedge-fund manager David Tepper going all-in on China... and why he believes China won't invade Taiwan. (18:11) Finally, Brendan breaks down the growth prospects for China today and shares his thoughts on the U.S. moving to produce more semiconductors domestically. After, he discusses today's data-driven world and the new ways this data is collected by research firms. KraneShares is able to leverage this data in turn and be selective about which Chinese companies it gets involved with. As Brendan explains, cooperation with China is both important for investors' portfolio diversification and for a harmonious future. (37:12)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Bob Murphy. Bob is the chief economist at technology firm infineo, author of more than a dozen books, and a passionate advocate of free markets. He explores a wide variety of topics on this week's podcast, from how history is repeating itself... to the U.S. dollar's inevitable fall from dominance... to the harmful consequences of low interest rates. Bob starts the show by explaining what exactly infineo does, how it's making life insurance an asset class, and the advantages of tokenizing life insurance. He also discusses one of his books, the Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New Deal. Even though the book is more than a decade old, and even though it's about the U.S. economy in the 1920s and 1930s, its lessons are still relevant in today's economic context. Bob notes that there's going to be a big crash no matter what. (1:13) Next, Bob talks a bit about the presidential election, the effects of Donald Trump pulling out of the Paris Agreement, and the government's out-of-control spending problem. He predicts that the U.S. dollar will lose its status as the world reserve currency by the 2040s, and voices concerns that the U.S. is following China's lead toward a Big Brother police state with social credit scores. (19:57) Finally, Bob shares his thoughts on the current state of the economy. He covers hyperinflation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's actions, the inverted yield curve, and former Fed economist Claudia Sahm denying the validity of her own 100%-accurate recession indicator. Bob also talks about the harm caused by low interest rates and how they lead to malinvestment, allowing bad businesses to stay alive. (40:54)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Chris Pavese back to the show. Chris is the president and chief investment officer of Broyhill Asset Management. A value-oriented investment firm, Broyhill prioritizes safe, long-term success. Chris kicks off the show by sharing a few book recommendations and explaining all about Broyhill. He covers how he got his start at the company, what differentiates it from other asset managers, and its core value-investing philosophy. As Chris notes, we've seen one of the longest stretches of value underperformance in history. However, Broyhill has kept pace with the S&P 500 Index over the past decade, despite not holding the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks and half of the portfolio being in foreign markets. (0:43) Next, Chris explains what closed-end funds are and why they see such major swings in sentiment. He also gives his macro outlook in regard to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and what it means for the economy. Chris highlights the fact that today's market is one of the most concentrated in history. But as he points out, there are pockets of value in many areas, especially internationally. And despite all the geopolitical turmoil, he advises against abandoning equities completely. (19:59) Finally, Chris discusses the importance of having a margin of safety and practicing common-sense risk management. He also mentions that the Biden administration is going hard with antitrust regulation and blocking a lot of deals, which is causing wide spreads in stock price when mergers and acquisitions are announced. Broyhill uses this merger-arbitrage strategy a fair amount to get easy money. Plus, Chris shares Broyhill's underwriting methods to gauge a business's intrinsic value. (40:08)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Pete Carmasino back to the show. Pete is chief market strategist at our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics. He's also editor of the Chaikin PowerTactics and Chaikin PowerTrader newsletters. With more than 25 years of experience in the financial-services industry, Pete joins the podcast to share some of his wisdom on sector rotations, pullbacks, and the housing market. Pete kicks off the show by talking about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, unemployment ticking higher, and the difficulty bond managers are having with timing the market. He also shares his thoughts on the Sahm Rule indicator, which says we're currently in a recession. Pete believes that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will only do a 25-basis-point rate cut, but that ultimately Japan will be the deciding factor in Powell's decision. This leads to a conversation about sector rotation and which sectors are outperforming today. (0:43) Next, Pete gives pointers on how to find investing opportunities within market rotations and pullbacks. He explains that a lot of the sectors that are thriving today serve as bond proxies, and a lot of the individual stocks that investors are flocking to are safe havens that pay high dividends. After, Pete talks about the trend in oil and gas prices over the past two years and how it has been influenced by the White House's efforts to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. (18:46) Finally, Pete shares why he believes the housing market is on its way to reaching an "equilibrium" between buyers and sellers. He says housing prices can stay high (benefiting sellers) while interest-rate cuts will lower mortgages (benefiting buyers). Pete also cites increases to the lifetime gift/estate tax exemption as a reason for the influx of competitive all-cash housing transactions. (34:31)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Aaron Edelheit back to the show. Aaron is the founder and CEO of private investment firm Mindset Capital. He joins the podcast to talk about his investing philosophy... the importance of relieving mental stress... and all things cannabis – from its "great replacement" of alcohol to its legalization in more and more states. Aaron begins with a story about how he received advice from the legendary Charlie Munger on the "price of admission" of being an investor. He explains that this advice made him reflect on his own strengths and realize that he wanted to exclusively do long-term investing rather than trading. This leads to a conversation about investor psychology and mental strain. Aaron shares a few tips for relieving the anxiety surrounding investing, from turning off your phone and computer one day a week to doing hot yoga. (1:37) Next, Aaron talks a bit about his investing background, his career path, and how he finds opportunities where others aren't looking. Today, he believes the big opportunity is in cannabis stocks. He explains that certain names in this industry are breaking out despite the lack of federal reform. Aaron also drops a non-cannabis name that he's interested in and gives an alternative perspective on value stocks. (22:44) Finally, Aaron compares today's investing landscape with that of the 1990s. He shares that there's much more financing of private companies today, which stops them from going public for longer (if at all). After, Aaron makes his case for cannabis stocks. He believes that they will eventually steal market share from drug companies and alcohol producers once more people realize the benefits and switch over. (40:54)