What Just Happened?

In this episode of *What Just Happened*, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline analysts Lewis Galvin and Caspar von der Schulenburg to ask whether Moscow could provoke a crisis on NATO soil. After the US midterms, could Donald Trump use American intelligence as leverage to press Kyiv into a deal that favours Moscow? And as Germany rebuilds its intelligence services after a spy scandal that shook allied trust, could Russia exploit the gap to step up sabotage and force NATO to decide how far it is prepared to go in response?   Join the Sibylline Podcast mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at [email protected] Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk  

Israel’s election has left neither bloc with a majority. Could renewed war with Iran give Benjamin Netanyahu a chance to form a national unity government and stay in power? On What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Principal MEA Analyst Megan Sutcliffe and Middle East Analyst Omar Khadr to discuss how Israel might break the deadlock and what Netanyahu’s departure could mean for relations with Egypt and Jordan and the prospects for renewed talks with Saudi Arabia.   Join the Sibylline Podcast mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at [email protected] Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk

Britain is sending fighter jets to help defend Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks, while inside Yemen the battle for Taiz threatens to shift the balance of the war. In this week’s What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Middle East analysts Omar Khadr and Owen Williams to examine the widening international defence effort, the Houthi offensive and whether Saudi Arabia and its partners can help bring the conflict towards a settlement. Enjoying What Just Happened? Subscribe here to never miss an episode. https://go.sibylline.com/podcast

US midterms: Why the hardest test for America’s allies may lie ahead Could an electoral setback leave Donald Trump weakened at home but more assertive abroad? In this week’s What Just Happened?, host Marco Giannangeli joins Sibylline’s Principal Analyst Americas Claire Brady and Lead Analyst Lewis Galvin to explore the midterm outlook, MAGA’s uncertain future and the Republican succession struggle. And they examine why Trump’s pursuit of his legacy could bring fresh challenges for Ukraine, Iran and America’s European allies long after the votes are counted. Enjoying What Just Happened? Subscribe here to never miss an episode. https://go.sibylline.com/podcast  

Could Russia’s shadow war cause mass casualties in Europe within six months? Following an attack on a Polish Starlink ground station, What Just Happened? host Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Karan Vassil and former military intelligence officer Philip Ingram MBE to examine Moscow’s increasingly reckless hybrid campaign. As Russia tests the West’s red lines, are Western governments doing enough to deter further attacks? Our guests discuss the risk of unintended civilian deaths, the response they could provoke and what might make Moscow change course. Enjoying What Just Happened? Subscribe here to never miss an episode. https://go.sibylline.com/podcast

The risk of a successful high-impact attack on European soil is increasing. As Russian hybrid operations escalate, how close is Europe to more open confrontation? In this episode of What Just Happened?, Sibylline’s Head of Global Analysis, Edward Johnson, is joined by Associate Analyst for Europe, Annabel Walker, and Europe Analyst, Caspar von der Schulenburg, to examine what the recent arrests near RAF Fairford reveal about the evolving threat facing the UK and Europe. They explore why the UK, Germany and Poland sit at different points on the spectrum of Russian grey-zone activity, what is driving Moscow’s increasing tolerance for risk and potential lethality, and why the distinction between hybrid warfare and more open confrontation is becoming increasingly difficult to define. They also examine the challenge of attributing grey-zone attacks, the sectors most exposed to escalating activity, and why Sibylline now assesses a realistic possibility of more open confrontation between Russia and NATO by mid-2027. If you are interested in receiving Sibylline's Resilience report, reach out to us at [email protected].  Enjoying What Just Happened? Subscribe here to never miss an episode. https://go.sibylline.com/podcast

The US still leads the global AI race, but China is closing the gap. Could the competition itself make AI more dangerous? In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Chief Analyst, Sam Olsen, and Lead Analyst for Technology and Geopolitics, Jake James, to explore the potential existential risks of AI, why US-China strategic competition could make meaningful safeguards harder to achieve, and whether the UK could play a role in bridging the divide. They also examine why AI may be harder to contain than nuclear weapons, the different risks posed by frontier and open-weight models, and what it could take for Washington and Beijing to cooperate on AI safety. Request the report: https://go.sibylline.com/AI-castastrophe Enjoying What Just Happened? Subscribe here to never miss an episode. https://go.sibylline.com/podcast

The Iran-US conflict has evolved significantly over the past seven months, creating strategic, economic and societal consequences both inside Iran and across the wider region. In this episode, Samuel McVicar speaks with Sibylline Principal Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the current state of the conflict, how it has evolved and what could come next. Megan explores Iran's internal dynamics, the wider regional implications of the war and the potential scenarios that could shape its next phase.   Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup Follow Sibylline on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow Sibylline on LinkedIn: Sibylline | LinkedIn Watch Sibylline on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information: www.sibylline.co.uk

An attempted mutiny in Niger has exposed growing tensions inside the country’s military regime, raising fresh questions about General Tiani’s grip on power and the loyalties of the armed forces. In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline Senior Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst Benedict Manzin and Dr Alia Brahimi, Senior Fellow with the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council and host of the Guns for Hire podcast, to examine the events surrounding the mutiny and what they reveal about Niger’s political and security landscape. Interested in hearing more from Dr Alia? Check out her podcast and Substack: Guns for Hire Podcast: Guns for Hire podcast Alia's Substack: https://highlyirregular.substack.com/   Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup Follow Sibylline on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow Sibylline on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Watch Sibylline on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information: www.sibylline.co.uk #Niger #Russia #AfricaCorps #Sahel #Geopolitics

In this episode of What Just Happened?, host Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline's Lead Europe-Eurasia Analyst Alexander Lord to examine the political tensions emerging inside Ukraine as the war continues. The discussion explores former Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov’s call for wartime elections, the political fallout from his dismissal and the broader debate over how Ukraine should balance democratic accountability with the demands of prolonged conflict. Alexander also outlines the scale of corruption within defence procurement and why allegations involving figures close to President Volodymyr Zelensky could become increasingly difficult for his government to contain. With Ukraine approaching another critical stage of the war, the episode asks whether political pressure, corruption concerns and questions over elections could begin to affect the country’s ability to maintain unity and sustain its war effort.   Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at [email protected] Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: Sibylline | LinkedIn Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk