Asia in Focus

In the past few weeks, we have seen a tectonic shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina – who ruled for the last 15 years with what some describe as an Iron Fist, particularly against the opposition – resigned and fled the country in early August following weeks of unrest, which began as student-led demonstrations against job quotas and grew into a nationwide movement that resulted in significant violence.   Now, Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus is stepping in to lead a caretaker government amid a volatile economic climate, following last year's IMF bailout.   Angela Mancini, Partner, and Aryaman Bhatnagar, Senior Analyst, delve into the implications for Bangladesh's political future and and its business environment.

In the past few weeks, Thailand has undergone a dramatic political transition with the appointment of Paetongtarn Shinawatra as the new prime minister. This development comes on the heels of a period of uncertainty and political turmoil following the dissolution of the Move Forward Party, the main opposition. Paetongtarn is the fourth member of the Shinawatra family to assume the role of prime minister and is under intense scrutiny. Many wonder whether she can navigate the political landscape without meeting the same fate as her predecessors, who were ousted by either the courts or the military. In this episode, Angela Mancini, Partner, sits down with Harrison Cheng, Director and lead Southeast Asia analyst, to unpack what Paetongtarn’s rise to power means for Thailand's future. They discuss the critical next steps, including the formation of a new cabinet and strategies she might use to avoid the pitfalls that have historically plagued her family. They also discuss the potential impact of Paetongtarn’s leadership on foreign investment and economic policy, with particular attention to how Thailand’s business environment might evolve under her administration.

Investors in Asia are still processing the news of the sudden passing of Vietnam’s long-serving leader, Communist Party Secretary General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong in mid-July. Trong was one of the country’s most powerful leaders in decades and had overseen the explosive growth of the Vietnamese economy – during which GDP more than doubled, Vietnam signed several significant foreign trade agreements (FTAs) and became a primary destination for investors’ China +1 strategies. He is also behind Vietnam’s aggressive anti-corruption campaign, known as the “blazing furnace”, which has taken down several very senior leaders and more recently had been a cause of real concern for foreign investors. His passing marks the end of an era in Vietnamese politics and has many watching closely to see how Vietnam’s leadership will be structured. Angela Mancini, Partner, sits down with Steve Wilford, Partner, to discuss what the passing of Trong means for Vietnam and its business environment. Visit www.controlrisks.com/vietnam to contact our experts for an in-depth briefing. If you are looking for more analysis across South East Asia, please visit our South East Asia hub. 

The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) wrapped up on 18 July in Beijing. It comes at a critical juncture for an economy beset by profound challenges. Angela Mancini, Partner, has a discussion with Andrew Gilholm, our Principal and Director of analysis for Greater China and North Asia, on the key takeaways from the Third Plenum, the future direction of China’s economy, and the country’s reactions to the recent geopolitical developments globally. If you are looking for more analysis across the Asia-Pacific region, please subscribe to our  Asia In Focus podcast.    

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a third term, but his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) unexpectedly lost its parliamentary majority after significant losses in key states to opposition parties, particularly the Indian National Congress (INC). For the first time, Modi must rely on his coalition partners to advance his political agenda. Angela Mancini, Partner, speaks with Khalid Shah, Analyst, to discuss what this shift mean for India’s growth trajectory, internal inequalities, and the nation’s evolving role on the global stage. Read our article on the outlook for a weakened Modi, or subscribe to our India updates to get them straight to your inbox.    

Vietnam’s anti-corruption drive, dubbed the “burning furnace,” started in 2016 but has intensified since 2021.   Many senior officials in the country have come under investigation. They’ve been asked to leave their positions or have been forced to step down. Most recently, Vietnamese property tycoon Truong My Lan was sentenced to death for her role in a USD 12.5 billion financial fraud scheme. Investors and government officials are growing increasingly nervous and are holding off on making any decisions that might spark a corruption investigation. But that’s not the whole story.   Angela Mancini, Partner, sits down with Steve Wilford, Partner, to discuss Vietnam’s current business and political environment and how, despite the challenges, there is still a lot of opportunity.  If you are looking for more analysis across South East Asia, please visit our South East Asia hub here. 

This April has seen a surge in bilateral contacts between the US and China, from the Xi-Biden phone call to Janet Yellen and Antony Blinken’s visits to Beijing. Relations between the two countries seem to be entering a holding pattern, as we mentioned in the RiskMap 2024 Top Risks.  President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are competing to raise the stakes against the world's second largest economy as the election approaches. Are we seeing the advent of a durable stabilisation in bilateral relations for the rest of the year, or just a lull before the storm? Meanwhile, China is stepping up its diplomatic reach with other countries. How will China's growing role and influence on the international stage contribute to reshaping the world order? Angela Mancini, Partner, talks with Andrew Gilholm, our Principal and Director of analysis for Greater China and North Asia, about the prospects of US-China relations during this election year, how the two candidates differ in their approach to policy around China, the key triggers for escalation to watch, and how companies should prepare for the changing global landscape. Listen to our recent episode, US election 2024: the possible outcomes and global implications, to hear more of our insights on the US election. If you are looking for more analysis across the Asia-Pacific region, please subscribe to our Asia In Focus podcast.

In a busy election year, the most high-profile race in 2024 is undoubtedly the rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump as the two candidates once again vie for the Oval Office. With six months until election day, how the rematch could unfold, and its global implications, are top-of-mind for many businesses. Organisations need to prepare for a range of compounding risks associated with the possible outcomes. Angela Mancini, Partner, sits down with Daniel Rechtschaffen, our Washington DC-based political and regulatory risk Senior Analyst for North America, to discuss the forecast for 2024 US election, the policy priorities of the two candidates and the impact for Asia and broader markets. Read the article, The business implications of a Biden-Trump rematch, for more of our thoughts on the US election.

Indonesia will announce the official results of its presidential elections on March 20. Pro-business defence minister Prabowo Subianto looks set to win the presidency outright, avoiding a run-off in June.  Longtime followers of Indonesia will know Prabowo as a controversial general and the son-in-law of authoritarian President Suharto, who in the late 1990s was banned from the US and dismissed from the Indonesian army for allegations of human rights abuse. How did Prabowo get elected and what should businesses expect from him?  Angela Mancini, Partner, speaks with Achmad Sukarsono, Associate Director and Indonesia Lead Analyst, about what a Prabowo presidency would look like and how the business risk landscape in Indonesia is expected to change.   Find more of our analysis on South East Asia here.

In this episode of Asia In Focus, Angela Mancini, Partner, speaks with Khalid Shah, Analyst, about how businesses operating in India can prepare for the future. India is often regarded as sitting in a geopolitical sweet spot. The country is seen as a rising power on the global stage as well as an ally to several Western states. All eyes will be on the country in April and May 2024 as India heads to the polls in its upcoming general election, which will see 900 million people cast their votes. While no surprises are expected, the outcome will set the tone and direction for businesses operating in India for the next 5 years. But the general election will likely not derail India’s growth agenda. India’s Vision 2047 document, expected to be formally unveiled this year, will lay out a path to elevate India’s economy from a gross domestic product of USD 3.4 trillion to USD 30 trillion by 2047. Alongside incentives to drive investment and the opportunities that come with a large, aspirational consumer market, businesses should also expect inefficiencies and obstacles to doing business; myriad climate challenges; a massive digital infrastructure vulnerable to threat actors; and all the complexity of centre / state, regional, and social challenges. Visit our India Business page to find our latest analysis on India, or read our analysis on the top risks and opportunities for India in 2024. If you are looking for more analysis across the Asia-Pacific region, please subscribe to our Asia In Focus podcast.