Optimists Make Money

Order Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing A rocket nozzle can take more than a year to manufacture. Orbital Composites says its robotic process can cut that to less than two weeks—but getting new parts qualified remains a major hurdle. Amolak, co-founder and CEO of Orbital Composites, joins Stephen McBride to explain how robotic 3D printing could help address a critical bottleneck in American missile production. They explore why solid rocket motors need specialized composites, how two robots work together to print reinforced parts, and what it takes to move from a promising manufacturing process to equipment the military can actually use. Beyond missiles, Amolak lays out a broader vision: modular factories deployed in shipping containers and a manufacturing business modeled on TSMC, producing advanced materials for customers across defense, aerospace, and energy. In this episode: • Why rocket nozzles are so difficult to manufacture • The qualification hurdle between prototypes and deployment • How robotics, simulation, and physical AI could accelerate production • Why distributed factories could make supply chains more resilient • What bringing manufacturing back to America actually requires Plus: Amolak's overrated-or-underrated takes on humanoid robots, hypersonic missiles, Golden Dome, and going to Mars. 0:00 Rocket nozzles: From 12 months to two weeks 0:41 Inside Orbital Composites' robotic factory 3:19 Why rocket nozzles are a defense bottleneck 8:56 Disruption Investing 9:38 Getting new missile parts qualified 11:35 Scaling rocket nozzle production 15:41 Robotics, advanced materials, and physical AI 20:42 Factories in shipping containers 23:40 Selling parts, not just robots 25:01 Becoming the TSMC of advanced materials 27:36 What American reindustrialization requires 30:33 Overrated or underrated? 32:45 Where to find Orbital Composites  

Order Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing Could turning mercury into gold make nuclear fusion commercially viable? Marathon Fusion's Jason Parisi explains how producing valuable materials alongside electricity could change the economics of fusion power. Jason, Marathon's chief science officer, joins Stephen to explain the company's approach: start with scarce medical isotopes, develop the hardware, and work toward fusion plants that could produce both electricity and gold. Instead of entering the fiercely competitive electricity market first, Marathon is targeting materials used in emerging cancer treatments. We unpack how mercury could become gold inside a fusion reactor, why Jason believes that could double or triple a plant's revenue, and the catch: the resulting gold may need years in storage before it can be handled. Those economics are projections, and the conversation explores the assumptions behind them—including whether new supply could crash the gold market. We also discuss plasma centrifuges, what investors should look for beyond impressive reactor renderings, and how Marathon is using AI to accelerate research. Plus: China's fusion ambitions, the practical barriers to commercialization, and why Jason sees fusion becoming an industrial platform for manufacturing some of the world's most valuable materials. 0:00 Could gold change fusion economics? 0:46 Meet Jason Parisi: What is nuclear fusion? 4:19 Why start with medical isotopes? 6:41 Disruption Investing 7:24 How medical isotopes target cancer 9:48 Why selling electricity first is so difficult 11:28 Turning mercury into gold 15:32 Could fusion gold cost less than mining? 16:10 Radioactive gold: The 7–17-year wait 18:31 Could fusion crash the gold market? 20:03 Inside a fusion machine—and Marathon's lab 21:19 How Marathon's isotope approach differs 22:59 How plasma centrifuges work 24:30 What fusion investors should look for 25:49 How AI is changing fusion research 28:47 Rethinking scientific work in the AI era 29:48 Where humans add value as AI improves 32:36 Comparing AI tools for science and coding 33:31 China, America, and the fusion race 35:55 Where fusion talent goes 36:55 Fusion regulation and nuclear waste 37:59 From optimistic physicists to commercial teams 39:22 What would accelerate fusion? 40:08 What $10 billion could—and couldn't—speed up 42:05 AI and brain-computer interfaces 43:30 What success looks like for Marathon Fusion 44:29 Overrated or underrated? 45:23 Where to follow Marathon Fusion 45:44 Join the Rational Optimist Society  

Order Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing Satellites that spot small wildfires, locate GPS jammers, and monitor drought—all built on platforms from the same company. Muon Space is helping turn space infrastructure into practical tools on Earth. Jonny Dyer, co-founder and CEO of Muon Space, joins Optimists Make Money to explain how cheaper launches, better sensors, and faster satellite connectivity are opening up missions that once cost too much or took too long. We dive into FireSat, a satellite system designed to give firefighters earlier warnings and better information about a fire's intensity and movement. Beyond wildfire detection, Muon builds spacecraft supporting radio-frequency intelligence and agricultural monitoring, with upcoming missions targeting military weather intelligence and direct-to-satellite Bluetooth connectivity. Jonny explains the engineering and supply-chain challenges behind these systems, why Muon builds so much in-house, and where he sees opportunities for founders and investors in space infrastructure. He also revisits the early days of SpaceX, working alongside its first engineers, and launching satellites on converted Russian nuclear missiles. Plus: why launch capacity could tighten again, where data centers in space make sense—and where the hype gets ahead of reality—and what China's growing capabilities mean for America's position in space.   0:00 Small satellites, faster wildfire detection 0:50 What Muon Space does 1:26 Why satellites took years and cost a fortune 4:19 What makes space so hard? 6:09 Disruption Investing 6:51 The next big unlock: networks and platforms 10:18 FireSat and the wildfire information gap 13:43 How satellites detect small fires from space 16:56 From satellite image to firefighter alert 20:19 Earning the trust of fire agencies 23:48 The space infrastructure problem Jonny would solve 24:43 Inside the early days of SpaceX 27:26 How risk-taking unlocks engineering talent 29:03 What Elon Musk was like early on 30:19 Launching satellites on converted Russian missiles 34:10 When to build in-house—and when to buy 35:35 Space businesses nobody is building 36:50 Quickfire: investing, hiring, and industry assumptions 39:51 The bottlenecks in scaling satellite production 41:07 Is another launch shortage coming? 43:14 Is it too late to start a rocket company? 44:12 Data centers in space: promise versus hype 47:13 The space industry beyond SpaceX 48:33 Wildfires, weather forecasts, and everyday life 51:36 China's challenge to US space leadership 53:11 Overrated or underrated? 54:05 Where to follow Muon Space  

America can build advanced fighter jets and autonomous drones. So why do its military systems still struggle to talk to each other? Zane Mountcastle, founder of Picogrid, explains the infrastructure problem behind modern military technology—and how his company's Legion platform helps connect sensors, autonomous systems, and command networks. On Optimists Make Money, Zane breaks down why military integration is more than a software challenge. Legacy equipment, competing defense contractors, and rigid procurement requirements can make connecting systems slow and expensive. He explains Picogrid's approach: reusable infrastructure that lets new technology plug into existing networks and adapt as threats change. The conversation also explores how China's military faces a different set of challenges, why Zane believes mass-produced drones can strengthen deterrence, and where specialized defense startups can compete with the established giants. For founders, engineers, and investors, Zane shares why waiting for the military to request your product may mean you're already too late—and why he sees enormous opportunity in manufacturing and hard tech. Plus: the risks of battlefield AI, El Segundo's industrial revival, hiring engineers with initiative, and which emerging defense technologies he considers overrated or underrated. Order Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing   0:00 America's military integration problem 0:57 How the battlefield has changed 1:58 Why military systems can't talk to each other 7:05 Disruption Investing 7:47 How Picogrid's Legion works on a military base 9:13 Reusable infrastructure vs. custom integration 13:26 Does China have the same problem? 15:16 Can cheap drones prevent war? 17:53 Defense startups vs. the established giants 22:34 Who benefits if Picogrid succeeds? 25:25 The biggest mistake defense founders make 27:20 Battlefield AI and hallucination risks 29:20 Lessons from Abu Dhabi's rapid development 31:29 How America can build fast again 34:21 Why El Segundo is a hard tech hub 37:37 Hiring engineers with initiative 39:03 Quickfire: procurement, culture, and founder advice 40:26 A different kind of defense company 41:45 What changes if Picogrid wins? 42:35 Overrated or underrated: defense technology 44:43 Where to follow Picogrid 45:16 Rational Optimist Society  

Physical AI could transform the supply chain—but why is unloading a truck still so hard to automate? Pickle Robot founder and CEO AJ Meyer explains what separates an impressive robot demo from a machine customers actually want to buy. In this episode of Optimists Make Money, AJ takes us inside the punishing warehouse jobs his company is working to automate. He explains why handling cardboard boxes can be harder than driving a car, how reinforcement learning and simulation could unlock more capable robots, and why useful dexterity remains a major challenge. We explore his case for purpose-built machines over humanoid robots, his assessment of Tesla Optimus, and the limits of learning from human demonstrations alone. AJ also shares a practical signal for investors: pay attention when warehouse operators start asking their bosses for more robots. The conversation covers the business of warehouse automation, the value of proprietary deployment data, China's hardware strengths, and the privacy risks created by robots equipped with cameras. AJ closes with his vision for an automated supply chain—and what people could do when they no longer have to unload trucks to earn a living.  

Order Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing How did China become so difficult to compete with in manufacturing, batteries, and rare earths—and what would it take for America to catch up? This Optimists Make Money compilation brings together founders and engineers explaining China's industrial strengths, America's supply chain vulnerabilities, and the technologies that could change the competitive balance. Across conversations about critical minerals, lithium-ion batteries, synthetic fuels, nuclear energy, drones, and asteroid mining, a recurring question emerges: what happens when a country invents breakthrough technologies but loses the ability to manufacture them at scale? We explore how industrial policy, offshoring, regulation, and engineering talent shaped today's competition. You'll hear about new approaches to rare earth processing, the challenge of rebuilding American factories, and why cheaper components and greater production capacity matter for energy and national security. The discussion also examines China's long-term ambitions in space—and challenges the assumption that Chinese companies simply copy Western technology. For founders, engineers, and investors, these interviews offer a practical look at where the bottlenecks are, what competing with China actually requires, and where the next generation of industrial companies could make a difference. Subscribe to Optimists Make Money for conversations with the people building the future.   Chapters 0:00 Are We Underestimating China? 0:46 How America Lost Its Industrial Lead 2:30 Where China Is Ahead in Technology 3:33 Disruption Investing: Book Break 4:16 How China Built Its Battery Advantage 7:35 What If China Cut Off Rare Earth Supplies? 9:03 How America Lost Rare Earth Processing 11:00 How Rare Earth Separation Works 12:04 A New Approach: Chromatography 13:30 The Environmental Cost of Rare Earth Processing 15:38 Can US Rare Earth Processing Compete on Cost? 18:46 The Defense Industry's Rare Earth Problem 19:55 Can America Rebuild Its Battery Industry? 23:34 Lithium Supply Chains and the Sodium-Ion Debate 26:25 Synthetic Fuels: Learning From China's Speed 29:00 China's Nuclear Strategy and Advanced Reactor Fuel 29:57 What's Holding American Factories Back? 32:21 Manufacturing's Skills and Knowledge Gap 35:34 Why America Still Needs to Build 39:05 Drone Regulations and US Manufacturing 41:15 Underwater Drones and Supply Chain Bottlenecks 43:32 Protecting Undersea Cables 44:58 How Drone Warfare Changes in the Pacific 49:19 China and the Asteroid Mining Race 50:34 China's Long-Term Space Strategy 52:48 Join the Rational Optimist Society  

Order Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing China controls more than 90% of the world's rare-earth processing capacity. If that supply disappeared, the effects could reach everything from iPhones and airplanes to advanced military systems. Curtis Wu, co-founder and CEO of Maglut Heavy Industries, joins Stephen McBride to explain how the United States surrendered this critical industrial capability—and why rebuilding it requires more than copying China's environmentally destructive processing plants. Maglut's ARC-1 system adapts chromatography, a purification technique refined by the biotechnology industry, to separate rare-earth elements. The company says its water-based approach could deliver a 10× smaller facility, 10× lower capital costs, and 20× lower energy consumption than conventional solvent extraction—all while producing individual rare-earth elements at 99.9% purity. Curtis explains how ARC-1 works, why chromatography has only recently become economically viable, and whether American production can compete with China on cost. They also discuss the looming 2027 defense-supply deadline, America's shortage of chemical engineers, government support for advanced manufacturing, uranium enrichment, and the limits of AI inside physical laboratories. Can America rebuild its rare-earth supply chain before China's dominance becomes an unavoidable choke point? 0:00 China's rare-earth choke point 1:04 What are rare earth elements? 2:07 Why processing is the real bottleneck 4:03 Maglut's alternative to solvent extraction 5:26 Disruption Investing 6:08 China's 90% processing dominance 7:36 Where rare earths appear in everyday life 8:56 How America lost its industrial lead 10:53 The rare-earth supply chain explained 12:58 Inside China's "sacrifice zones" 15:05 Bringing clean processing back to America 16:49 How ARC-1 separates rare earths 19:14 Why chromatography is viable now 21:21 America builds the cloud; China builds the world 23:05 Where China leads the United States 24:08 America's chemical-engineer shortage 24:58 Scaling Maglut beyond pilot production 27:25 The approaching 2027 defense deadline 28:34 Does the industry need government support? 30:04 Can advanced manufacturing scale in California? 30:52 America's engineering talent problem 32:58 A world with abundant rare earths 35:29 Founder lessons from competitive tennis 36:28 Could ARC-1 transform uranium enrichment? 37:40 What AI can—and can't—do in the lab 39:03 The overlooked potential of neuroscience 40:16 Overrated or underrated 41:40 How to follow Maglut Join the Rational Optimist Society (Free): https://zpr.io/Cm2bNANWYsy4 If you're ready for deeper insights and fresh takes on today's critical issues, hit the subscribe button! Follow us on X: The Rational Optimist Society: https://x.com/RationalOptSoc Stephen McBride: https://x.com/DisruptionHedge 

Water scarcity isn't only a climate problem—it's an engineering and infrastructure problem. Hunter Manz, founder and CEO of Eden Technologies, joins us to explain Genesis: a patented reverse-osmosis centrifuge designed to recover up to twice as much freshwater from high-salinity water while producing less concentrated brine. Hunter explains why water hardware has attracted less investment than software, how conventional desalination becomes expensive, and why Eden is initially targeting the enormous volumes of wastewater produced by the oil and gas industry. We also explore the potential value hidden in brine, including recoverable minerals such as lithium. The conversation goes beyond the technology. Could smaller, distributed desalination systems be more resilient than billion-dollar centralized plants? Can Eden manufacture Genesis at scale? And could better desalination eventually make water abundant in drought-prone regions? Learn more about Eden Technologies: https://www.edentechinc.com/ Subscribe for weekly conversations with the founders and engineers building the future.  

Can an autonomous firefighting drone stop a wildfire before it spreads? Seneca is building AI-powered firefighting drones designed to reach early-stage fires in minutes—before a small ignition becomes an acre-scale disaster. Stuart Landesberg, founder and CEO of Seneca, joins Optimists Make Money to explain how a strike team of five 400-pound autonomous drones can locate a wildfire, assess wind conditions, deliver water or firefighting foam at high pressure, and rotate through repeated attacks. He says Seneca could reduce wildfire response times from 20 minutes—or even hours in remote areas—to roughly 3–5 minutes, at a fraction of traditional aerial firefighting costs. They discuss Seneca's live-fire test with CAL FIRE, the nearly $1 trillion annual cost of wildfires, and why five smaller drones may be safer and more effective than one massive aircraft. Stuart also explains the technology behind the system, including AI, LiDAR, radar, infrared sensors, onboard autonomy, and human oversight. The conversation covers firefighter safety, FAA drone regulation, extreme wind, deployment economics, early-fire data, and applications beyond wildfire suppression—including cargo hauling and search and rescue. Can autonomous aircraft give firefighters the speed and scale they need without replacing human judgment? 0:00 Why the first minutes of a wildfire matter 0:41 Meet Seneca's firefighting drones 2:13 Why Stuart founded Seneca 4:31 Disruption Investing: book announcement 5:17 From wildfire detection to drone response 9:03 Autonomous drones and human judgment 10:14 How drones could change firefighting 14:25 Building a 400-pound firefighting drone 16:16 What happened in CAL FIRE testing 19:09 Five smaller drones vs. one big aircraft 20:51 Inside the drone: sensors and onboard AI 22:22 Who adopts firefighting technology first? 23:53 Why autonomous flight is closer than you think 25:25 How drones aim and adjust their spray 26:32 Wind limits and pilot safety 28:20 What's slowing drone adoption? 30:47 FAA regulation and drone deployment 32:25 The economics of aerial firefighting 33:35 The missing data on early-stage wildfires 35:45 Scaling Seneca without sacrificing support 37:46 Could faster response make mountain living safer? 38:28 Beyond wildfires: search and rescue 39:32 Overrated or underrated: drone technology 40:20 Where to find Seneca 40:39 Join the Rational Optimist Society Learn more about Seneca: https://www.seneca.com  

Preorder Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks for only $2.99. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing A $20,000 Shahed vs a $6M Patriot missile — we can shoot them down, we just can't afford to. T wo founders building the fix — Nathan Mintz (KG2 Industries, electronic warfare on autonomous systems) and Jamie Wedderburn (Ulysses, low-cost autonomous underwater vehicles) — break down why the offense-defense balance just flipped, why shooting the drone is the wrong game, and what a "mosaic defense" actually looks like from the Strait of Hormuz to the Pacific. We cover the $20K vs $6M cost asymmetry, hunting the operator vs the arrow, the $100M vs $2B mine-clearing math, why GPS dies underwater, Ukraine's survival-driven iteration vs US procurement, and why homeland defense can't be a single $4B battery. This interview was filmed May 6, 2026 at the Strategic Investment Conference. In this episode: -Why the cheap drone wins the math -How KG2 hunts the ground controller (Wraith + Vedras) -Why Ulysses builds AUVs like cubesats -Mosaic, layered defense & the future of counter-drone / counter-AUV Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make money. For more on the near future directly from the builders: 👉 Subscribe to the free Rational Optimist Society newsletter: rationaloptimistsociety.substack.com