What markets bet President Trump will do

This year, there was some economic good news to go around. Inflation generally ticked down. Unemployment more or less held around 4-percent. Heck, the Fed even cut interest rates three times. But for a lot of people, the overall economic vibes were more important. And the vibes... were still off.We might have achieved the soft landing the Fed was hoping for, but we saw some wackiness in the relationship between unemployment and job vacancies. Meanwhile, Bitcoin went to the moon. We have covered all of that in this past year, but which of these economic stories really defined the year?Fortunately, we don't have to decide. You all do.On today's show, a collaboration with our daily podcast The Indicator, we have Indicator Family Feud! Two Planet Money hosts enter, one Indicator host... also enters. And all three leave, having had a great time with lively discussion and light ribbing. Plus, some mild scheduling issues. But, we can't stress enough that no hosts were harmed in the making of this podcast.Then, we look ahead to 2025 to see what indicators we think will define the coming year – the future and the past, on our latest episode!Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Our planet is in serious trouble. There are a million species of plants and animals in danger of extinction, and the biggest cause is companies destroying their habitats to farm food, mine minerals, and otherwise get the raw materials to turn into the products we all consume.So, when Mauricio Serna was in college, he realized his family's plot of land in Colombia, called El Globo, presented a unique opportunity. Sure, it had historically been a cattle ranch. But if he could get the money to turn it back into cloud forest, perhaps it could once again be a habitat for the animals who used to live there — animals like the yellow-eared parrot, the tree ocelot, and the spectacled bear (of Paddington fame).On today's show, Mauricio's quest to make a market for a new-ish financial instrument: the biodiversity credit. We peek under the hood to try to figure out how these credits actually work. Is the hype around them a bunch of hot air? Or could they be a critical tool for saving thousands of species around the world?Today's episode was hosted by Stan Alcorn and Alexi Horowitz-Ghazi. It was co-reported by Tomás Uprimny. It was produced by James Sneed, edited by Jess Jiang, fact-checked by Sierra Juarez, and engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer. Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Sports gambling isn't exactly a financial market, but it rhymes with financial markets. What happens on Wall Street somehow eventually also happens in sports gambling. So in the 1980s, when computers and deep statistical analysis entered the markets, it also entered the sportsbooks and changed the world of sports gambling in ways we see every day now.On today's episode, we have a story from Michael Lewis' new season of his podcast Against The Rules. We hear from a bookie who was able to beat the odds using statistical analysis, and the other bookie who managed to beat those odds, using an even more subtle science: behavioral analysis. Plus, how it's harder than ever to win against the house, and why those offers of free bets in TV ads are maybe not such a good idea.This episode was hosted by Michael Lewis and Mary Childs. Our version of the podcast was produced by Emma Peaslee and edited by Martina Castro. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez, and engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Why do some nations fail and others succeed?In the late 1990s and early 2000s, three economists formed a partnership that would revolutionize how economists think about global inequality. Their work centered on a powerful — and almost radically obvious — idea: that the economic fate of nations is determined by how societies organize themselves. In other words, the economists shined a spotlight on the power of institutions, the systems, rules, and structures that shape society.We spoke with two of the Nobel-winning economists about their research on why some countries are rich and others are poor, why it took so long for economics to recognize the power of institutions, and what the heck those even are.This episode was hosted by Jeff Guo and Greg Rosalsky. It was produced by Willa Rubin with help from James Sneed. It was edited by Martina Castro and fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Engineering by Gilly Moon with help from James Willetts. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

The Smoot Hawley Tariffs were a debacle that helped plunge America into the Great Depression. What can we learn from them?Today on the show, we tell the nearly 100-year-old story of Smoot and Hawley, that explains why Congress decided to delegate tariff power to the executive branch in the first place. It's a story that weaves in wool, humble buckwheat, tiny little goldfish, and even Ferris Bueller... Anyone? Anyone?It's also what set the stage for the Trump tariffs. President-elect Donald Trump enacted a heap of import taxes in his first term, in particular on goods from China. President Biden's administration largely kept those tariffs in place, and levied new tariffs as well, on electric vehicles and solar panels.And now, as Trump's second presidency is on the horizon, he has promised even more tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, and even on all imports across the board.And now, as Trump's second presidency is on the horizon, he has promised even more tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, and even on all imports across the board.We update this classic episode about the Smoot Hawley Tariffs, and review the impact of more recent efforts from Trump and Biden alike.Help support Planet Money by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney. You get bonus episodes!Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Windell Curole spent decades working to protect his community in southern Louisiana from the destructive flooding caused by hurricanes. His local office in South Lafourche partnered with the federal government's Army Corps of Engineers to build a massive ring of earthen mounds – also known as levees – to keep the floodwaters at bay.But after Hurricane Katrina called into question the integrity of those levees, Windell decided to take a gamble that put him at odds with his partners in the Army Corps. He decided that the best thing he could do to protect his community was to go rogue and build his levees as tall as possible as quickly as possible, without federal permission.On today's show, what the story of Windell's levee can teach us about how the federal government calculates and manages the risk of natural disasters, and how those calculations can look a lot different to the people staring straight into the eye of the storm.This episode was hosted by Alexi Horowitz-Ghazi and Mary Childs. It was produced by Emma Peaslee and edited by Jess Jiang. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez and engineered by Valentine Rodriguez Sanchez. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

As people learn more about Donald Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, one story comes up over and over: a legendary trade that he played a small part in while he worked at George Soros' hedge fund in the 1990s. In 1992, Soros' fund set its sights on the British pound, betting that some time in the fall of that year, the pound would plummet in value. Opposing them in this trade was the Bank of England, which was determined to keep its currency stable. The financial battle that followed was intense and proved to be a watershed moment in the balance of power between markets and governments.On today's show, we speak to Robert Johnson, a former managing director at Soros' fund, for a blow-by-blow account of those fateful days in 1992. This episode was hosted by Keith Romer and Alex Goldmark. It was produced by Willa Rubin and edited by Martina Castro. It was fact-checked by Sierra Juarez and engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer. Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Always free at these links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts.Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

The dreaded data breach notification... It tells you your personal data's been compromised and suggests steps you can take to minimize the potential harm. On today's episode, Kenny Malone pulls out a data breach letter he received and goes over what it recommends with Amanda Aronczyk. Amanda recently did a show about the legal and illegal markets for data and tells us how useful these steps actually are. It's news you can use to protect yourself, whether or not you've been part of a data breach!This normally would be a bonus episode just for Planet Money+ listeners. With this being the season of giving, we're sharing this one with everyone! To hear more bonus content like this, regular episodes sponsor-free, and support the work of NPR, sign up for Planet Money+ at plus.npr.org. Related links:Data Breach Response: A Guide for Business (FTC)Have you been affected by a data breach? (FTC)Your Technology Is Tracking You. Take These Steps For Better Online Privacy (Life Kit)What happens after you get scammed? Can you get your money back? (Planet Money)Firewalls Don't Stop Dragons (cybersecurity and privacy podcast) DeleteMe (personal data removal service) Experian (credit bureau)TransUnion (credit bureau) Equifax (credit bureau) Always free at these links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts.Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

You probably own a chair or a table or a sofa. And you probably think you know why you bought it. Because it was comfy. Or blue. Or the right price. But what if the style, the color, the cost, maybe even whether you would like it, were choices made for you years before you even thought about buying that piece of furniture.Today on the show: The city that makes or breaks the furniture world. We travel to High Point, North Carolina and meet the people who make the bets – on whether or not you'll want that comfy blue couch.This episode was hosted by Amanda Aronczyk and Erika Beras. It was produced by James Sneed with help from Willa Rubin. It was edited by Jess Jiang, fact-checked by Sierra Juarez, and engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

A couple years ago, Gina Leto, a real estate developer, bought a property with her business partner. The process went like it usually did: Lots of paperwork; a virtual closing. Pretty cut-and-dry. Gina and her partner started building a house on the property.But $800,000 into the construction process, Gina got a troubling call from her lawyer. There was something wrong. At first, Gina thought the house had burned down. It turned out that the situation was... maybe worse.On today's show: Buying land seems pretty secure, right? There's so much paperwork and verification along the way. But a messy system of how titles are sold, transferred and documented makes a perfect entry point for a new kind of criminal: Title Pirates.Today's episode was hosted by Erika Beras and Jeff Guo. It was produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler. It was edited by Liza Yeager. Fact-checking by Sarah McClure. Engineering by Valentina Rodríguez Sánchez. Planet Money's executive producer is Alex Goldmark.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy