Nordea Markets fra innsiden

Vi har vært gjennom en periode med uro rundt AI - aksjer. Hva skjer hvis vi får en sprekk a la dotcom-sprekken på2000-tallet?  Vi argumenter for at virkningene på amerikansk økonomi blir mindre enn den gang og at nedsiden i de lange rentene er nokså begrenset. Norges Banks reaksjon vil i stor grad avhenge av utviklingen i kronekursen.I denne episoden har Ole-Håkon Eek-Nielsen og Kjetil Olsen med seg analytiker i Nordea Markets, Kirsti Midttun.​​Disclaimer:All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Kronekursen har hatt medvind i det siste. Mens oljeprisen både kan gå opp og ned fra dagens nivåer, kan økende uro rundt Frankrike forsterke vibbene fra eurokrisen for 15 år siden og svekke euroen ytterligere. Også USA har utfordringer med statsgjelden, og skulle AI-euforien i tillegg slå sprekker kan dollarens status som trygg havn svekkes. I en slik situasjon kan norske kroner komme til å skinne ganske bra. Disclaimer:All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Har vi nå nådd rentetoppen her hjemme eller er det mer i vente fra Norges Bank? Og hva ligger egentlig bak den kraftige oppgangen i markedsrentene globalt?Disclaimer:All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Inflasjonsutviklingen utover høsten vil avgjøre om Fed og Norges Bank hever renta. Selv om Warsh i Fed er ullen er komiteen klar: Blir inflasjonen værende høy, som vi tror, skal renta opp. Her hjemme tror vi prisveksten tar seg opp igjen etter en liten sommerdupp og at Norges Bank leverer sin varslede økning i løpet av høsten. Disclaimer:All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by NordeaMarkets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does nottake into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/herfinancial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’sfinancial advisor.

Norges Bank varsler en renteøkning til om ikke lenge og åpner muligheten for at de må øke enda mer senere. Også Feds medlemmer antyder at det kan komme renteøkninger over dammen i løpet av året. Vi ser nærmere på de siste dagers kommunikasjon fra både Norges Bank og Fed og gir dere vår tolkning om hva vi har i vente. Disclaimer:All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Renteforventingene på både kort og lang sikt har steget mye – globalt og her hjemme. Hva ligger bak og hva nå? Disclaimer:All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general andpreliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does nottake into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/herfinancial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’sfinancial advisor.

Norges Bank har blitt mer bekymret for inflasjonen og leggernå større  vekt på å få den ned enn de har gjort så langt. De kommer derfor til å heve renta, til tross for mye kritikk. Norges Bank tar mandatet de har fått av myndighetene på alvor.  Vi diskuterer også debatten og kritikken rundt Norges Banks planer og peker på at mye av kritikken baserer seg på envirkelighetsforståelse som i beste fall er unyansert.  Disclaimer:All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general andpreliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does nottake into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/herfinancial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’sfinancial advisor.

Markedet har hørt på Trump og legger til grunn at krigen i Iran er over om ikke lenge, hadde de ikke gjort det ville olje- og gassprisene vært langt høyere enn de er nå. Men verden har uansett fått et nytt energisjokk og vi diskuterer hvilkekonsekvenser det kan få for vekst, inflasjon, renter og valutakurs i USA, Europa og her hjemme. Disclaimer:All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general andpreliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does nottake into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Prisveksten i januar kom inn mye høyere enn Norges Bank hadde anslått og inflasjonen ser mer ut til å trende oppover enn nedover. Samtidig har ledigheten falt de to siste månedene fra et allerede lavt nivå. Vi tror Norges Bank er ordentlig i tenkeboksen og diskuterer muligheten for at de faktisk må heve renta igjen. Sannsynligheten for det er større enn mange kanskje tenker. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.

Den amerikanske dollaren har svekket seg gjennom 2025 og det har fortsatt nå de siste dagene. Er det et uttrykk for sviktende tillit, og hvor skal dollaren framover? Vi se også på konsekvensene for de lange rentene av dagens geopolitiske situasjon. Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates in this podcast are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated publication date and are subject to change without notice. The podcast is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment. Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.