Black Friday Cyber Monday Recap & The Forecasting Process Behind Ecom Profit - with Richie Mashiko

This week, we’re joined by Richie Mashiko - Head of Beacon at Iris Finance for a full breakdown of how BFCM played out across their businesses. Together, the group recaps what actually drove performance this year, from media-mix diversification and top-of-funnel investment to traffic dynamics, conversion-rate behavior, and how different brand sizes approached Cyber Five strategy.From there, Richie walks through his forecasting philosophy - including how he builds bottoms-up financial models, how diminishing returns shape CAC and forecasting assumptions, and how finance and marketing need to stay aligned around realistic growth expectations. The group also dives into contribution margin, AMER, customer mix, and why so many brands forecast incorrectly when marketing isn’t part of the planning process.They then unpack the levers that actually make an ecommerce business profitable: cohort behavior, scaling past category saturation, interpreting flat conversion rates alongside surging traffic, and what contribution dollars really tell you. Richie shares lessons learned from She’s Birdie’s rebuild year and how smaller brands can apply the same financial discipline as companies operating at nine-figure scale.If you're trying to understand your BFCM results, build a forecast that reflects reality, or get finance and marketing speaking the same language, this episode is a must-listen.If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:06:40 - BFCM recap00:24:47 - Media Mix Strategy00:41:52 - International Markets00:53:44 - FP&A Background01:07:05 - Building a ForecastPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsHaus.http://Haus.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here: https://9operators.com/

In this episode of Marketing Operators, Cody and Connor break down how growth teams are rethinking measurement heading into 2026 - especially the rising importance of brand tracking. They discuss why click-based attribution alone no longer works, how incrementality and geo tests fill in the gaps, and why tracking awareness, consideration, and “future demand” is becoming essential.Then they’re joined by Austin Santino, Client Development Manager at Tatari, and Jonathan McKenzie, Co-Founder of Turtlebox. Jonathan shares the brand’s unique origin story - four best friends building a rugged speaker for their sailboat before realizing it could become a business. Austin breaks down how Tatari has helped Turtlebox validate audiences and content through high-signal CTV testing and confidently expand into larger live-sports and linear placements. Jonathan also shares how Turtlebox is aiming to move from fast-cycling, performance-style creative toward more intentional, long-form storytelling as the brand matures.This episode delivers the frameworks, tactics, and operator-level insights you need to sharpen your measurement strategy and scale your TV investment with confidence.Tatari: https://www.tatari.tv/?utm_campaign=29640555-Operators%20Podcast%20Nov%20%2725&utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=operatorsIf you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:06:32 - Implementing Brand Tracking00:20:45 - The Value of Earned Media Value (EMV)00:35:26 - Turtlebox Audio: Origin Story and Product Differentiation00:48:11 - TV Content Strategy00:58:25 - 2026 Planning and The "Small Bets" Philosophy for FoundersPowered by:Motion.https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsRivo.https://www.rivo.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/

This week, the team breaks down how operators should be thinking about Q4 performance, offer strategy, and what it really takes to evolve beyond the traditional “discount + ads” playbook. We get into why some brands are rolling out first-ever sitewide promotions, how seasonal bundles create new revenue moments, and how text-to-buy flows, post-purchase upsells, and Shopify Collective can create seamless cross-brand merchandising opportunities heading into 2026.From there, we dive into one of the smoothest customer experiences we’ve seen lately: Fellow’s text-to-buy setup. We unpack why it works so well for hardware brands with natural consumable add-ons, which categories this model is best suited for, and how operators can use complementary products to create repeat pathways without relying on subscriptions.We then dive into media expansion, with the hosts discussing why there’s more opportunity than ever outside the traditional hero channels - from curated newsletter audiences to out-of-home paired with sampling and experiential moments, and the rise of street-interview content as a high-performing acquisition engine. There is so much overlooked media in the ecosystem right now, and operators who feel capped on their core platforms may be missing high-leverage arbitrage.We wrap with a discussion on identifying under-the-radar media buys, evaluating whether niche placements are worth the squeeze, and how to build a more resilient acquisition and retention engine moving into next year. If you’re expanding your media mix, pushing for higher LTV, or rethinking your Q4 strategy, this episode is packed with operator-level insights.If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:17:51 - Text-to-Buy and Complementary Brand Partnerships00:35:40 - Testing Free Plus Shipping and Sample Funnels00:46:02 - Out-of-Home and Street Interviews00:58:11 - Balancing Arbitrage vs. Measurement01:08:28 - Aligning Media Investment with Attention TrendsPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsRivo.https://www.rivo.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/

As we head into the final days before Cyber Five, this episode is all about going from daily pacing to true intraday pacing - the level of granularity operators need when every hour can swing the entire BFCM weekend. We break down how we monitor hourly revenue and ad spend across Meta, Google, and more using tools like Northbeam and Supermetrics, and how we make real-time adjustments when projections drift off target.We also get into the messy but essential stuff: how inventory, merchandising, and media-mix strategy shape bid caps, channel budgets, and how aggressively you can push during Cyber Five, including the constant tradeoff brands face between maximizing contribution margin dollars and maintaining efficiency. The hosts share real examples of scaling (and protecting efficiency), running holdout tests, understanding incremental lift, and avoiding the overspend horror stories that can tank a weekend.To wrap up, we talk through team etiquette during BFCM-who’s “on,” how to handle PTO, how the paid teams coordinate in hourly and bi-hourly check-ins, and what it takes operationally to keep a brand performing during the most high-pressure stretch of the year.If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:10:52 - Intraday Revenue Pacing00:24:39 - Cyber 5 Scale-Up Tests00:39:07 - Bid Caps and Budget Strategies00:52:10 - Channel Spend Forecasting01:02:50 - Scaling Mid-Funnel CampaignsPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsHaus.http://Haus.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/

This week, we’re joined by Jon “JMo” Morgenstern, Head of Investment at VaynerMedia, who manages over $1.5B in annual media spend across brands like Oreo/Mondelez, JP Morgan Chase, PepsiCo, and Yeti. JMo breaks down how enterprise advertisers think about channel mix, retail media, and allocating capital across Meta, TikTok, CTV, Amazon, and Walmart and what DTC operators can learn from teams working at that scale.From there, we dive deep into measurement. JMo breaks down how enterprise teams are approaching incrementality, causal MMM, brand lift, and retail media halo effects and why fast-moving brands need to start thinking beyond last-click and short-window ROAS if they want to graduate into real growth mode.Then we move into creative. We talk about why “just make more ads” isn’t the strategy and how Vayner thinks about creative volume × creative diversity, niche persona testing, and using organic performance as a signal before scaling into paid.We wrap with TikTok Shop, retail partnerships, and why even the biggest brands in the world are still navigating the same innovator’s dilemma as fast-growth DTC brands - just with more zeros and way more stakeholders. If you're trying to spend smarter, measure smarter, and make creative that actually moves the needle, you’re gonna love this one.If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:04:59 - Fortune 500 vs DTC Strategies00:17:59 - Measuring Awareness, Incrementality & MMM00:38:49 - Vayner Volume Model: Diversity over Iteration00:52:49 - Turning Organic Wins into TV Commercials01:04:11 - TikTok Shop Strategy & Cross-Channel HaloPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsRivo.https://www.rivo.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/

In this episode of Marketing Operators, Cody and Connor unpack the real impact of Meta’s Andromeda update and what creative diversity actually means today, plus how to optimize for it in an algorithm-driven environment. They break down how short-form, personalized feeds have reshaped the playbook, why we’ve shifted from the editor era to the creator era, and what now constitutes a better ad in Meta’s eyes. They also dig into how to scale truly diverse creative without slowing down, harness organic social as a performance engine, and how the creative strategist role is evolving - expanding beyond editing into creator-first, social-native thinking and faster content systems.Then they’re joined by Cathy Sun, VP of Ecommerce at AppLovin, to dive into the launch of AppLovin’s self-serve Axon ads platform. Cathy breaks down how rewarded mobile gaming ads work, why long-form clickable inventory is driving incremental performance for e-commerce brands, and the creative tactics that win - from increasing ad volume and variation to leveraging interactive formats and scaling with repeatable creative workflows. She shares real stories of brands rapidly ramping spend and unlocking breakout ROAS on AppLovin, and why this channel has quickly become a powerful performance complement to Meta.If you’re evolving your creative for the Andromeda era and looking for scalable performance channels beyond Meta, this episode delivers the frameworks, tactics, and operator-level insights to grow with confidence.Check out Axon by AppLovin: https://axon.ai/inviteonlyUse code: KLOHWKP3YMOperators Masterclass on Channel Growth: https://www.9operators.com/applovinIf you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:06:46 - The "Andromeda" Apocalypse00:21:55 - Why We're in the "Creator Era" (Not the "Editor Era")00:37:56 - How to Hire in the Creator Era00:53:37 - Special Guest: What is AppLovin's Axon Platform?01:07:39 - AppLovin Performance & Creative Best PracticesPowered by:Motion.https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsHaus.http://Haus.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/

This week on Marketing Operators, Connor MacDonald kicks things off with a pressing question: “What does a modern CX team and workflow look like today?” From there, we dive into a growing debate across modern commerce - does CX actually drive growth, or is it still just a support functionJoined by Amit RG, co-founder and CEO of our show sponsor Richpanel, the team unpacks how leading brands are getting dramatically leaner with AI, why Tier-1 support is becoming fully automated, and whether CX should really sit under marketing or operations. Amit breaks down Richpanel’s inspiration from Uber’s self-service model, and what it looks like when support becomes proactive, scalable, and insight-rich instead of reactive and manual.This leads to a breakdown of the revenue-generating CX touchpoints you’re not thinking about, sparked by McCoy’s prediction that “a year from now we’ll all be talking about generating LTV,” not just acquisition. The group digs into ideas like optimizing high-intent tracking pages with tools like Wonderment, founders jumping into ad comments, and turning warranty claims into upsell moments - with real-world examples from Ridge, Jones Road, Equinox, and even Cartier’s luxury clienteling approach.The episode wraps with a look at how AI is reshaping DTC ops end-to-end - collapsing workflows, enriching agent decisions, and driving smarter, more efficient growth across the entire customer journey.If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:06:21 - What Does a Modern CX Team Look Like?00:19:10 - The CX to Marketing Feedback Loop00:32:07 - Revenue-Generating CX Touchpoints00:45:13 - Is Shade Matching a CX Revenue Driver?00:57:06 - Using Founder Social Comments as a CX TouchpointPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsHaus.http://Haus.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/

This week, we’re taking an even deeper dive into all things BFCM. How the team is approaching forecasting, pacing, and spend strategy heading into the most important stretch of Q4. We break down how each of us is projecting November and December revenue this year, how new product launches and category expansion factor into those forecasts, and what data we’re using to stay accurate in real time.Connor M walks us through his Holiday Sale Revenue pacing sheet, showing exactly how he tracks daily revenue and ad spend targets, while the group compares different approaches to pacing across brands and channels.We also dig into how we’re scaling YouTube, Meta, and CTV spend, what the latest incrementality tests are showing, and how to use ROAS lift to decide when to push hardest.Finally, we wrap up with a look at holiday shipping cutoffs, with how distribution and messaging strategies shift in December, the “Q5” opportunity that follows, and how to make the most of those final weeks of the year when every day still counts.Holiday Sale Revenue Pacing Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13W_a721DjhlgtLqUj7iC7w32NtitbnNnA9kYifws1NQ/edit?gid=973800920#gid=973800920If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:09:04 - Black Friday Prep & Timelines00:20:17 - How to Re-Forecast Q4 Revenue00:35:41 - BFCM Pacing Sheet Walkthrough00:50:57 - Visualizing Pacing Data & The 12% Stat01:02:40 - Holiday Shipping Cutoff StrategiesPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsRivo.https://www.rivo.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/

This week, we’re getting into all things BFCM. What we’re doing right now to prep for the most important time of year for DTC marketers and what brands need to be thinking about that most people don’t. We dig into pacing, impulse-buyer windows and how to avoid misspending on the day, plus how we’re approaching budget planning, Meta performance, and the lessons we’ve learned from our own campaigns over the years.We also get into what we’d do if we had a new product or brand idea and how we’d validate it in the market, even without a finished product, and the scrappy, cost-effective ways to test before going all in. We break down real examples of brands that nailed their early launches through smart validation and lean marketing, and what you can take from those approaches.To wrap up, Connor R shares the three ideal hires he’d make first if he were building a marketing team from scratch and how those roles can help you execute faster, test smarter, and scale sustainably.Zach Stuck on the Core Marketing Tactics to Drive Growth As You Scale: https://youtu.be/M4xn2aISEbg?si=V_8R4sIklXa487CBIf you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:08:05 - Less-Talked-About BFCM Tactics & Insights00:24:17 - BFCM Sale Timelines & Pacing Strategy00:36:46 - Analyzing ROAS Lift & Scaling Spend Pre-BFCM00:53:50 - How to Test & Validate a New Product Idea01:10:14 - The First 3 Hires for a New Growth TeamPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsHaus.http://Haus.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/

This week, we’re joined by Reza Khadjavi, founder and CEO of Motion, the podcast’s premier sponsor. Reza breaks down who he’d hire first if he were running growth today, why the best marketers right now are the ones who can merge strategy, execution, and AI into one high-leverage role, and how he’s seeing the return of the elite IC reshape modern marketing teams.Connor M shares a behind-the-scenes look at how Ridge has collapsed entire layers of their go-to-market workflow, cutting out handoffs, speeding up launches, and proving that smaller, sharper teams can actually do more. We dig into how AI is automating execution, why creativity still sets teams apart, and what it really means for how work gets done.Then we explore the latest creative trends, from Meta’s Andromeda update and what it means for persona-based targeting to how brands should actually be thinking about creative diversity. Reza walks through Motion’s new AI tagging system, the eight most important categories for creative testing, and why so many brands miss the mark on evolving their messaging. We also talk about how getting naming conventions right can unlock better insights, sharper strategy, and way more creative clarity.If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction00:05:41 - The Three First Hires for a Director of Growth00:26:28 - How Ridge Collapsed Its Go-to-Market Workflow00:37:36 - When Leaders Become ICs00:51:14 - Meta Andromeda & The Need for Creative Diversity01:07:44 - The Power of AI Tagging & Naming ConventionsPowered by:Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trendsPrescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operatorsRichpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdescAftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operatorsRivo.https://www.rivo.io/operatorsSubscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here:https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPSSign up to the 9 Operators newsletter here:https://9operators.com/