Ira Jersey on Deciphering Fed Signals, Fiscal Policy Intricacies, and the Mechanics of Market Movement

Navigate the perplexing currents of today's investment landscape with us, Michael Gayed and expert analyst Sam Burns from Mill Street Research, as we dissect the S&P's dominance and the challenges of traditional diversification. Gain valuable insight into the shifting sands of asset allocation, where the once-reliable tactics now stumble in the face of large-cap earnings surprises and the creeping dread of 'zombie companies' amidst rising interest rates. Our conversation spans from the perplexing behavior of small-cap stocks to the potential economic ripples of the November elections, painting a comprehensive picture of a market at a crossroads.As we parse through the intricate economic recovery, Sam and I scrutinize the historical echoes of inflation and how today's landscape differs, considering the impacts on housing, the auto industry, and consumer spending. We delve into the enigma of emerging markets and China's influence, probing the gap between GDP growth and corporate earnings while dissecting the sector allocation mix affecting investment returns. Join our intricate dance through economic indicators and the commodities market, as we shed light on gold's breakout and the shifting tides that may influence your next investment move.Thank you for tuning in to an episode brimming with insights and a forward-looking perspective on fiscal policy, bank credit growth, and the economic indicators that matter most in our post-COVID world. For those keen on staying abreast of market trends and expert analysis, follow us on Mill Street Research, Twitter, and LinkedIn. A heartfelt nod to Sam Burns for his invaluable expertise and to our listeners for embarking on this journey through the financial landscape with us. Here's to more enlightening episodes and engaging discourse ahead.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the Show.

Embark on a journey through the evolving world of finance with none other than Caleb Silver, the Editor-in-Chief of Investopedia, as your guide. You're in for an enlightening conversation that traverses Caleb’s illustrious career from Bloomberg to CNN, and his passionate advocacy for financial literacy. We tackle how the fast-paced nature of today's media impacts the integrity of business journalism and the challenges of sifting through vast data to uncover the genuine economic narratives. By the end of our chat, you'll have a deeper understanding of why positive economic indicators and public sentiment often don't align, and just how predictive Investopedia's search trends and Anxiety Index can be for the markets.Feel the pulse of economic anxiety as it ebbs and flows with the tides of political discourse. Our discussion with Caleb reveals the intricate relationship between market fluctuations and our collective psyche, dissecting how political leanings can skew our economic perceptions. As we peel back the layers of media influence, question the motives behind the dramatization of financial news, and shine a light on the latest craze in options trading, we expose the raw nerves of investor behavior and market volatility. This episode paints a vivid picture of the current financial climate and the role media plays, extending beyond simple market updates to the very heart of personal finance concerns.As we round off this comprehensive exploration of the financial landscape, we take a heartfelt look at the need for financial education, with Caleb sharing his evolution from TV producer to a champion of financial literacy. We delve into Investopedia's initiatives to make financial knowledge accessible, discussing the importance of ethical investing and the pitfalls ensnaring rookie traders. Witness the cultural shift towards zero-commission trading and its effects on investors' behaviors, and soak in the stories of market phenomena like AMC and GameStop. With this episode, your arsenal for navigating the financial markets responsibly will be significantly enhanced, and you'll be primed for our upcoming session with Sam Burns from Mill Street Research, promising to keep you at the forefront of financial acumen.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the Show.

Unlock the secrets behind the ever-evolving world of retail investing with our special guest, Stephen Sikes, COO at Public. This episode promises a journey into the heart of modern market dynamics, where we shatter the myth of the "dumb money" investor and introduce you to the savvy, diverse profiles making their mark on the financial landscape. Stephen brings his seasoned expertise to the table, revealing how Public has opened doors for an influx of younger investors since 2018, and demonstrating the platform's commitment to education and long-term investment strategies, despite the allure of options trading and speculative assets.The allure of volatility is undeniable, and our conversation with Stephen dives into how retail investors are riding the waves shaped by Bitcoin ETFs, the Reddit IPO, and the narratives that fuel their investment choices. We examine the robust performance of certain tech giants, the surprising agility of small-cap sectors, and how retail investors are increasingly preferring individual stories to broad ETFs. Stephen and I also tackle the complexities of options trading in a fluctuating market, discussing how retail investors balance their portfolios between ambitious trades and dependable, long-term investments.As we wrap up this episode, we focus on the recent shift toward more conservative investment vehicles such as bonds, showcasing Public's innovative bond trading platform. We dissect the divergent outcomes for AMC's equity and bondholders, illustrating the critical importance of a diversified portfolio. And by challenging the stereotype of retail investors as careless risk-takers, we underscore the calculated strategies they employ, highlighting Public's role in fostering an informed and strategic investing community. Join us and equip yourself with invaluable insights that redefine what it means to be a retail investor today.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the Show.

Unlock the mystery behind the surging gold prices as I, Michael Gayed, sit down with the esteemed Alasdair Macleod. With his unparalleled experience spanning the financial spectrum, Alasdair sheds light on the intricate dance between currency value and gold—a beacon of stability in an unpredictable economic seascape. Our discourse journeys through the global lens, where gold is not merely a commodity but the bedrock of wealth, and we dissect the possibility that rising gold prices may signal a waning dollar instead of a gold rush.Venture through a world where Bitcoin and gold clash in a battle for the title of true financial security. Alasdair, with his wisdom, guides us through the labyrinth of these two assets as hedges against counterparty risk, and unravels the tapestry of investing in gold, both in paper form and its tangible allure. We navigate the silver market's curious dynamics, touching upon manipulation, industrial demand, and the investment horizon in the mining sector, all set against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and interest rate hikes.As we wrap up our conversation, Alasdair and I contemplate the implications of global economic currents on gold's gleaming ascent. We scrutinize the faltering US dollar, the influence of interest rates on the G7 economies, and the stark realities facing the European banking system. The episode culminates with a glimpse into the profound challenges of recapitalizing the European Central Bank, offering listeners a riveting panoramic view on the pressing issues shaping the world's financial future. Join us as we unravel these golden insights, equipping you with the foresight to traverse the tumultuous tides of our global economy. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Make More with Matt HeslinExplore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.Listen on: Apple Podcasts   SpotifySupport the Show.

Prepare to have your perspectives on asset management and digital assets revolutionized as we're joined by the astute James Sayffart from Bloomberg Intelligence. Together, we navigate the complex terrain of the mutual fund and ETF industry, with an intriguing focus on the burgeoning world of Bitcoin ETFs. Our discussion is not just timely—given the legal entanglements like the Grayscale court case—it's crucial for anyone seeking to understand the implications of ETFs as both trading instruments and long-term investment solutions, and how their structure influences investor behavior within the tempestuous Bitcoin market.Venturing beyond, we dissect the fabric of the Hong Kong ETF market, contrasting it with its U.S. counterpart and speculating on the future of a Dogecoin ETF amidst stiff regulatory winds. We address the seismic industry shift from high-cost to low-cost asset management, scrutinizing why traditional fund managers are hesitant to cut fees in the face of low-cost giants like Vanguard. Additionally, we look into the burgeoning realm of active ETFs, examining their role in market flows and the fine balance they must strike between innovation, cost efficiency, and the pressures to justify their fees.As our conversation culminates, we forecast the prospective dominance of ETFs over mutual funds, debunk liquidity myths, and consider direct indexing as a rival to the traditional ETF model. We unpack the complexities of tokenized funds and how blockchain might redefine asset ownership and custody. As we bid farewell, we express our heartfelt gratitude for the community's engagement and leave you with a teaser for the future of these enlightening discussions. For those who thrive on in-depth analysis and foresight in finance, this episode is an invaluable treasure trove.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the Show.

Embark on a thrilling exploration of the financial world's ebbs and flows with Michael Howell, a luminary in the realm of global liquidity. Prepare to dissect the monumental role liquidity shifts play in the markets, the intriguing monetary dances of central banks, and the subtle maneuvers that have the power to send shockwaves through your personal finances. From the Federal Reserve's ledger balancing acts to China's post-festive resurgence, Howell and I lay out how financial titans' strategic moves ripple through economies and touch the common investor.As we journey through the intricacies of Japan's influence on global cash flow, the allure of gold in a fluctuating interest rate landscape, and the head-to-head of traditional havens against digital currencies, you'll gain a new appreciation for the delicate balance of international finance. This episode peels back the layers of market sentiments, revealing the surprising resilience of gold, the dance of inflation, and the emerging narrative of a commodities renaissance that echoes the bygone '70s. All this while pondering the potential upheavals that a surge in oil prices could unleash upon an already tense global stage.Finally, join us as we navigate the often-misunderstood signals of economic health—the yield curve and credit spreads—and their real-world implications on job data and your pocketbook. We tackle the conundrum of a strong US dollar, the shadows of currency manipulation, and the specter of fiscal alliances that could redefine global economic alliances. As we unveil the state of global liquidity and the forces that could pivot the financial markets, our discussion will arm you with insights to understand the waves you surf in the vast ocean of global economics.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Make More with Matt HeslinExplore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.Listen on: Apple Podcasts   SpotifySupport the Show.

Unlock the secrets to financial sovereignty with Lisa Hough, a beacon in the realm of Bitcoin and personal empowerment. As a colleague of Caitlin Long at Custodia, Lisa brings her wealth of experience from the trenches of energy trading and a firm belief in the revolutionary potential of self-custody. This episode is not just a journey through Lisa's impressive career from Unchained Capital to Salomon Brothers and Enron, but a masterclass in harnessing the volatility of the energy sector for financial independence. Her advocacy for energy maximalism is a clarion call for anyone yearning to break free from traditional financial constraints and make bold, confident decisions about their economic future.As the conversation steers towards the broader impact of Bitcoin, you'll be thrust into the heart of global economics and media narratives that shape the perception—and reality—of cryptocurrencies. We grapple with Bitcoin's role in reshaping global reserve currencies, the advent of AI in transactions, and the contentious debate surrounding Bitcoin ETFs and market behavior. Furthermore, the dialogue shifts to the vital inclusion of Bitcoin education within academic curricula, sharing personal vignettes and the triumphs of thought leaders who are paving the way for a financially literate generation. This episode is an essential listen for those intrigued by the intersection of finance, technology, and education, offering both an informative and provocative perspective on the future of money.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the Show.

Join the conversation with the acclaimed Hal Brands, historian and strategist, as we navigate through the labyrinth of geopolitical shifts that are forging new narratives in world affairs. Our engaging dialogue traverses the precipice of global economic uncertainty, sparked by events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, and the simmering tensions across the Middle East. Brands' expertise shines as he dissects the concept of mutually assured economic destruction, particularly spotlighting the precarious US-China relationship. By extrapolating insights from his book "Danger Zone," we also scrutinize the shadow of conflict that looms over these superpowers.Strap in as we dissect the emerging alliances that are redrawing the geopolitical map in Eurasia, where powers like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are crafting a new world order through strategic partnerships. The intricate web of military and economic exchanges is laid bare, revealing a burgeoning alliance system that stands to challenge the existing US-centric global structure. We pay close attention to the pivotal role of Western military assistance in Ukraine, weighing the global support against internal American sentiment and the surprising outcomes that have arisen since the conflict's inception.Finally, we cast an analytical eye on the American political landscape and the hurdles that face US aid to Ukraine. The intricacies of Capitol Hill politics are dissected, revealing the complexities behind aid allocations and the unexpected beneficiaries within the US military-industrial complex. The delicate dance of global oil prices and their influence on domestic politics, coupled with the cautious stance of the US and EU on Russian energy sanctions, are examined through a geopolitical lens. Brands and I conclude by envisaging the potential foreign policy pivots in a future US administration, pondering the strategic moves that could reshape US-China relations and the broader global economic fabric.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the Show.

Unlock the secrets of macro trading with trading maestro Jonathan Matthews, as he shares the wisdom gleaned from his illustrious career at Brevin Howard. I'm your host, Michael Gayed, Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, and in this episode, we delve into Jonathan's transition from handling equity derivatives and FX to revolutionizing the way retail subscribers view the markets with his 'Super Macro' analysis. Our exchange is sprinkled with tales of volatility and the rare, golden moments that define a trader's journey, offering you a front-row seat to the thought processes of an industry veteran.The Fed's recent mixed messages have traders and analysts alike scratching their heads—what's their endgame? Jonathan and I dissect this bewilderment, contemplating the interplay between economic signals, such as the soaring core PCE inflation rate, and the silent response from the Fed. We examine the peculiar timing of rate cut speculations considering global financial uncertainties and the upcoming U.S. election, giving listeners an edge in understanding these cryptic strategies.To cap off, we probe the U.S. economy's surprising resilience to the Fed’s rate hikes and what this means for inflation control efforts. The conversation transitions to the broader market, where we discuss vulnerabilities and the capacity for potential deleveraging events, contrasting current market conditions with those in the run-up to the 2008 crisis. Plus, we shine a light on the curious case of precious metals amidst a skeptical market. Join us for a session packed with expertise to help you navigate the tumultuous waters of finance.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the Show.

Unlock the secrets of the energy market with the astute insight of Amena Bakr from Energy Intelligence Group. Our conversation journeys through Amena's transition from a journalism background into becoming a vital voice on energy trends, focusing on the delicate interplay of oil prices and Gulf economies. We dissect the roadmap these nations traverse, balancing economic diversification with maintaining oil prices that fuel their development ambitions while steering clear of demand destruction. Amena's profound knowledge brings to light the intricate dynamics of the Middle East's energy landscape, providing a rare glimpse into the strategies employed by countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to secure their economic future.Imagine a world where global economic uncertainties and geopolitical chess moves set the stage for an unpredictable energy market. This episode paints a vivid picture of the current geopolitical risks, including the curious case of how major events once capable of causing oil price shocks now barely ripple through the market. We discuss potential oil price spikes tied to conflicts in the Middle East, OPEC's delicate dance to manage market expectations, and the looming question of whether technology and AI could redefine our understanding of the energy sector. With Amena's invaluable expertise, we scrutinize the shifting landscapes that investors and policymakers must navigate.Journey with us as we wrap up our dynamic discussion with a peek into Amena's meticulous process of energy analysis and research. We share resources for those hungry to dive deeper into the energy sector, spotlighting where to access Amena's comprehensive reports and the latest updates. This episode goes beyond the surface, offering a powerful synthesis of the complexities that shape the global energy narrative. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the Show.