Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours

As artificial intelligence transitions from frontier technology to widespread commercial infrastructure, its footprint on the modern economy is expanding rapidly. With AI adoption continuing to accelerate across industries, how will it affect productivity, wages, employment, and the skills workers need to succeed? The Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute’s Fall 2026 Roundtable was moderated by Galin Jones, Vice Provost for Artificial Intelligence at the University of Minnesota, and featured Lawrence Schmidt of the University of California, San Diego and Kyle Herkenhoff of the University of Minnesota. The panel considered AI’s effects on productivity, employment, wages, worker skills, inequality, and long-run economic growth as well as potential policy options to help displaced workers.

Why is affordable housing so hard to build in America?Much of the public debate focuses on interest rates, construction costs, zoning regulations, and supply chain disruptions. But according to economist Jim Schmitz, another powerful force has been overlooked: monopolies and the barriers they create to innovation and competition.In this episode of Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, Schmitz discusses his groundbreaking research on how entrenched interests can stifle new technologies, raise housing costs, and limit the supply of affordable homes. Drawing on decades of work studying monopolies and industry dynamics, he explains why some industries actively resist innovation—and how those actions can make consumers worse off while even reducing the industry's own long-run growth and profitability.The conversation explores the surprising connection between market power and housing affordability, the history of innovation in homebuilding, and what policymakers can learn as they grapple with one of the most pressing economic challenges facing American families.In this episode:How monopolies shape housing marketsHow barriers to innovation increase construction costsThe economics of manufactured and factory-built housingWhy industries sometimes resist productivity-enhancing technologiesCompetition, regulation, and the future of housing affordabilityPolicy lessons for addressing America's housing shortageAs policymakers search for solutions to the housing crisis, Schmitz offers a different perspective: one that focuses not just on supply and demand, but on the institutions and market structures that determine how innovation reaches consumers.***The views expressed in the conversation arethose of Jim Schmitz and not those of the Minneapolis Fed.About Heller-Hurwicz Office HoursHeller-Hurwicz Office Hours features University of Minnesota economists and the research that helps us make sense of a complex world. In Season 4, we continue our exploration of how economic research can inform our understanding of the rapidly changing policy landscape during the second Trump administration.📌 Subscribe for more conversations on trade, fiscal policy, labor markets, artificial intelligence, climate economics, and other pressing economic issues.

Geopolitical conflict, persistent policy uncertainty, and growing scrutiny of the Federal Reserve are reshaping the economic landscape facing the United States. At a time when policymakers, businesses, and households are navigating an increasingly complex environment, questions about inflation, growth, financial stability, and the Fed's independence have taken on renewed importance.In this episode of Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, we sat down with Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, on May 12, 2026 to discuss the forces influencing the U.S. economy and the challenges facing monetary policymakers.Kashkari shares his perspective on the economic outlook, the implications of global geopolitical tensions, the role of uncertainty in shaping business and consumer decisions, and why central bank independence remains a critical feature of a stable and prosperous economy. He also reflects on the evolving relationship between economic research and policymaking during a period of rapid change.In this episode:The outlook for the U.S. economyInflation, interest rates, and monetary policyThe intersection between geopolitical conflicts and economic performanceThe economic impact of policy uncertaintyWhy Federal Reserve independence mattersRisks to growth, employment, and financial stabilityThe role of economic research in policymakingAbout Heller-Hurwicz Office HoursHeller-Hurwicz Office Hours features economists connected with the University of Minnesota and the research that helps us make sense of a complex world. In Season 4, we continue exploring how rigorous economic research informs our understanding of today's rapidly changing economic and policy environment.

More than a year after President Trump launched one of the most dramatic shifts in U.S. trade policy in decades, what does the evidence actually tell us?In April 2025, the administration imposed sweeping tariffs designed to reduce trade deficits, boost domestic manufacturing, and reshape America's role in the global economy. The policy sparked fierce debate, with supporters promising an industrial renaissance and many economists warning of significant economic costs. Since then, the path has been anything but straightforward, culminating in a landmark Supreme Court ruling striking down the administration's emergency tariffs.On May 5, 2026, economists Tim Kehoe and Mike Waugh joined us for this episode of Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, to assess the first year of Trump's trade agenda. Drawing on the latest data and economic research, they examine how tariffs have affected trade flows, domestic production, prices, and supply chains—and whether the results align with the administration's goals.The conversation explores what economists have learned from this unprecedented policy experiment, what questions remain unanswered, and what the future may hold for U.S. trade policy in an increasingly uncertain global economy.Topics include:Trump's 2025 tariff strategy and its objectivesThe economic impact of broad-based tariffsManufacturing, trade deficits, and supply chain adjustmentsThe Supreme Court's tariff rulingWhat the data show after one yearThe future of U.S. trade policyHeller-Hurwicz Office Hours features University of Minnesota economists and their research, helping listeners make sense of today's most important economic challenges.

As the United States faces rising federal debt, it is also experiencing both a rapidly aging population and a falling birth rate, raising urgent questions about the long-term sustainability of the nation’s fiscal path. The Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute’s Spring 2026 Roundtable explored how demographic change, entitlement spending and macroeconomic forces are shaping the outlook for U.S. public finances.Julie Bunn moderated a discussion with leading economists, Jesús Fernández‑Villaverde of the University of Pennsylvania and Hannes Malmberg of the University of Minnesota. Together, they examined recent trends in the national debt, the fiscal pressures associated with an aging population and the policy challenges the United States may face in maintaining long-run fiscal sustainability.The conversation provided insights into the economic forces driving federal debt dynamics and what demographic projections imply for the future of taxation, government spending and fiscal policy in the United States.

Why are people having fewer children and what does this mean for our economic future? U.S. fertility rates have been declining for decades, now sitting well below the replacement level needed to sustain population growth. This long-running trend carries major implications for economic growth, fiscal stability, and the future of programs like Social Security and Medicare.In this episode of Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, Professor Michèle Tertilt breaks down what economic research reveals about the forces behind falling fertility. She discusses how comparison motives—the tendency for individuals to shape decisions based on the consumption, lifestyles, or choices of their peers—may be contributing to declining birth rates across advanced economies. Drawing on her recent work, she highlights what policymakers might consider as they debate proposals ranging from tax incentives to expanded childcare to reforms aimed at balancing work and family life.

In a time of persistent inflation, fiscal strain, and global uncertainty, the question of central bank independence has taken on renewed urgency. Widely accepted as a cornerstone of economic stability, independence is now being reexamined as some governments push for more direct influence over monetary policy. Watch this December 8, 2025 webinar for a conversation with former top leaders of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank: former President, Gary Stern, and former Director of Research, Art Rolnick, and the Hoover Institution's John Cochrane exploring questions about appropriate governance of central banks in democracies–and the risks in governments exerting more political control to address today’s complex economic challenges. Panelists discussed historical perspectives, current research, and the future of central bank independence in an era defined by both crisis management and political pressure.

Artificial intelligence is advancing faster than most policymakers — and many workers — can keep up. In this episode of Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, economist Kyle Herkenhoff joins us to break down what rapid AI adoption means for productivity, job displacement, wages, and the structure of the U.S. labor market.We explore whether today’s AI wave resembles the gradual diffusion of computers — or a deeper, structural transformation more akin to the shift from horses to cars. Herkenhoff discusses his recent research, how AI may reshape worker skill demand, and what these trends could mean for innovation, inequality, and long-term economic growth.

As the government shutdown stretches on, health policy sits at the center of America’s political gridlock. Recent legislative changes raise urgent questions about access, prevention, and long-term public health for millions who rely on the Affordable Care Act’s individual marketplaces for coverage.In this episode of Heller Hurwicz Office Hours, economist Assistant Professor Anran Li joins us to discuss insights from her new paper, “Commitment, Competition, and Preventive Care Provision.” We explore how competition among insurers, shifting policy incentives, and reduced coverage can alter investments in preventive care and what these dynamics reveal about the broader economic trade-offs of health reform under the Trump administration.

How far can governments go in taxing trade before the global economy hisses?In this Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours episode, we explore how to quantify which products, firms, and supply chains feel the sharpest tariff impact. Professor Tom Holmes joins us to unpack how Trump's tariffs target IP-heavy industries and global brands and walks us through a new framework for assessing tariff exposure. Drawing on his work-in-progress “Tariffs for Tax Revenue: Brands, Distribution Chains, and Tariff Choice,” we explore what it means to “pluck the goose” of global trade and what it takes to walk the line between efficiency and outrage.🔑 Topics:tariffs • trade policy • brand economics • intellectual property • innovation • revenue strategy • Trump economic policy • global supply chains • economic modeling