Hedge Heads

Signs are pointing toward a grain rally. What should you do with your hedges now? USDA's latest report shifted the outlook, and Jon sees encouraging signals in basis and soybean spreads heading into spring. Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth discuss why they're keeping an eye on higher prices, when it may make sense to take profits on short hedges, and how puts can help protect the downside while leaving room to participate in a rally. They also explain why knowing whether you're hedging or speculating changes the decision. Brought to you by FM Bank.

After two negative reports, USDA gave the grain markets a reason to rethink the outlook. Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth jump on for a quick update about why this report changes the attitude heading into January, why Jon favors soybeans over corn, and how he's approaching upside opportunities without chasing the rally. The numbers don't signal a supply shortage, but they could open the door to better marketing opportunities into spring. Brought to you by FM Bank.

Grain markets have taken a beating, and producers are asking whether it's time to buy back bushels they've already sold. But a lower price alone isn't a reason to reown corn. Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth discuss what makes reownership worth considering, how unsold grain changes your exposure, and why a plan matters more than picking the bottom. They also examine why strengthening soybean basis and spreads could be telling a different story than falling futures, what to watch as harvest gives way to spring, and where wheat fits into the picture. Plus, a look at the hog market's collapse, weakening cattle, and why crude oil remains a difficult market to trade. Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss. This discussion is for educational purposes and is not trading advice.

You're selling grain at harvest because you need the space or don't want to pay for storage. Should you reown those bushels on paper? Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth work through that decision, including why the cheapest option can leave you watching a rally after your coverage has expired. With fund liquidation pressuring grains, they discuss matching your timeframe to your goals, weighing soybean reownership costs, and deciding when to lift corn hedges. Plus, cattle markets are offering hedging opportunities worth reviewing. Jon explains why he favors puts, while the broader conversation turns to taking control of your marketing with a clear plan and the financing to stick with it.

The rally finally comes, but your options have already expired. Getting the direction right doesn't help much if your strategy runs out of time. This week, Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth tackle the questions coming in from the combine: Should you store grain, sell it, or sell and reown it on paper? They explain why the cheapest option can miss the opportunity you're trying to capture, what to consider before lifting a profitable hedge, and how a funded marketing plan can help keep emotion out of your decisions. Plus, cattle hedging opportunities are looking more attractive, but matching protection to your operation's timeline still matters.

The latest USDA report knocked the legs out from under the bullish grain story, but the funds are still holding substantial long positions. How long can they hang on, and what happens if they head for the exits? Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth discuss why a bearish short-term outlook can still leave room for longer-term opportunity, and how hedging strategies need to adapt. They break down what basis and spreads could reveal about actual corn supplies, why better-than-expected soybean yields warrant caution, and how to weigh storage costs against the potential for a better return. Plus, a look at South American weather and why a better cattle market structure makes this a useful time to revisit protection. You can disagree with the USDA. You still need a plan for the market in front of you. This discussion is for educational purposes only and is not trading advice. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss.

A surprise USDA yield increase knocked corn lower, but the next clues may come from local cash markets. In this short Hedge Heads episode, Jon and Ryan discuss what basis and spreads could reveal about actual grain supplies, where opportunities may develop in a range-bound market, and the risk of funds heading for the exits. Plus, a quick look at cattle as tight feeder supplies and competing market pressures set up a winter tug-of-war.

A bullish story can still be a tough market to sit through. With harvest bringing fresh supplies and funds already heavily committed to higher prices, what happens if the next USDA report doesn't deliver what the bulls expect? Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down why the longer-term case for corn hasn't disappeared, but the near-term risks deserve more attention. They discuss uneven corn yields, better-than-expected soybean yields, and why a yield cut alone might not be enough to move the market higher. Then they tackle the decisions producers face during harvest: Does storing grain actually capture the carry? When might selling grain and buying calls make more sense than paying commercial storage? And how could selling calls against stored corn fit into a marketing plan? The conversation comes back to understanding the costs, tradeoffs, and financing before choosing your next move. Brought to you by FM Bank. Trading commodity interests involves substantial risk of loss. Opinions expressed are for discussion only and are not trading advice.  

Harvest is underway, but grain marketing deserves more than whatever time is left at the end of the day. Strong soybean basis has Jon Prischmann questioning whether supplies are as comfortable as the numbers suggest, while a more active market is opening up strategies that were difficult to justify the past two years. Jon and Ryan Tungseth discuss what buyers' bids reveal, how to approach reowning sold bushels, and why a bullish outlook doesn't automatically make calls or bull spreads a good buy. They also look ahead to next year's crop and how time can work in a producer's favor, provided the strategy fits the risk. Recorded before the September 30 USDA report, this episode focuses on reading the market and preparing to act as opportunities develop.

Energy is moving, volatility is building, and commodity markets are starting to react. That could create some of the best opportunities traders and producers have seen in a while. It could also be a very expensive time to get reckless. Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down why this is becoming a market where knowing your risk may matter more than predicting the next move. They discuss corn and wheat spreads, options and other defined-risk strategies, what higher energy costs could mean for grains, and why oil may be one of the most important markets to watch even if you never trade it. They also dig into cattle, consumer spending, metals and the stock market as the effects of higher energy costs spread beyond grains. The opportunity is there. The question is how you participate without sticking your neck out when the market can change overnight.