GD POLITICS

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comFrom 2016 to 2024, Latino voters shifted roughly 32 points toward Republicans. According to early estimates, that entire rightward shift was undone in a single election last Tuesday.On today’s podcast, I sit down with longtime friend of the pod Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, to unpack one of the biggest stories of the 2026 midterms. Even Carlos, who expected Democrats to recover some ground, was surprised by the magnitude.Of course, a 32-point swing doesn’t mean the same voters moved right and then back left. The Latino electorate is growing and changing, and who turns out matters alongside who switches sides. One striking finding from early voter-file data: In Georgia and Texas, young Latina women voted at higher rates than young white women, reversing the usual turnout gap.We dig into how those forces reinforced each other, why the economy and immigration contributed to Republicans’ losses, and why Democrats’ recovery looks different in Texas and Florida. We also ask a broader question: What makes Latino voters so open to changing their minds?After 2024, there was plenty of talk about a lasting Republican realignment. After 2026, it may be tempting to declare that Latino voters have “come home” to Democrats. Carlos explains why both parties should be wary of treating one election’s results as a lasting arrangement.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comThe full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here.Well, that was quite an election night.Democrats have won control of the House and Senate, making inroads into territory that would have seemed wildly out of reach two years ago. After seven hours of live coverage, Mary Radcliffe and Lenny Bronner join me for a late-night podcast to make sense of it all. We brought drinks and a few functioning brain cells.We discuss the collapse in Republican turnout, a surge in Black turnout, Hispanic voters’ swing back toward Democrats, and why the wave hit some regions harder than others. A central question: How much of this result reflects voters changing their minds, and how much reflects who showed up? There’s still plenty of counting and analysis ahead, but the distinction matters for understanding what happened.We also consider what Democrats’ sizable majorities could mean for Trump’s final two years, and why tonight’s results tell us less about 2028 than you might think.Thanks to everyone who spent election night with us. We’ve got plenty more to talk about. First, some sleep.

A note on our election-night plans: I’m teaming up with Silver Bulletin, The Argument and Slow Boring for a livestream and live blog at gdpolitics.com, starting at 5:30 p.m. Eastern. You’ll hear from many of your podcast favorites throughout the evening, including Nate Silver, Clare Malone, Nathaniel Rakich, Lakshya Jain and Lenny Bronner.The livestream will be open to everyone; the live blog will be for paid subscribers. That’s where you’ll find all of Nate’s hottest NSFW takes! I’ll send subscribers a reminder email when we’re live on election night. We’ll also have a late-night podcast for paid subscribers once we have enough results to draw some conclusions. It’s an exciting week ahead!Happy election eve! Pollsters are releasing their final surveys, the forecasts are hours away from being frozen, and tens of millions of Americans have already voted. We’re about to find out whether all the pre-election data we’ve pored over actually painted an accurate picture of the 2026 electorate.On this final pre-election episode of GD POLITICS, Mary Radcliffe and Lenny Bronner join me to assess the last-minute polls, answer your remaining questions, and register our final takes before the results come in.A central question: Are Democrats’ surprisingly strong numbers in red states evidence of an unusually favorable electorate, or a warning that pollsters are struggling to reach Republican voters? We discuss what survey response rates can tell us and why weighting polls by voters’ recollections of 2024 introduces its own complications.We also examine why this election might produce an uneven map. Candidate quality, regional differences, and shifting coalitions could mean very different results in states experiencing the same national political environment.Finally, we offer three perspectives on the story that might emerge: Lenny explores how modest polling misses among particular groups could reshape the Senate outcome. Mary focuses on regional shifts and their implications for 2028. And I consider how this election differs from 2022 and whether it might come to be seen through a lens of betrayal.Hope you enjoy the episode, and we’ll see you on election night! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comA note on our election-night plans: I’m teaming up with Silver Bulletin, The Argument and Slow Boring for a livestream and live blog at gdpolitics.com, starting at 5:30 p.m. Eastern. You’ll hear from many of your podcast favorites throughout the evening, including Nate Silver, Clare Malone, Nathaniel Rakich, Lakshya Jain and Lenny Bronner.The livestream will be open to everyone; the live blog will be for paid subscribers. That’s where you’ll find all of Nate’s hottest NSFW takes! I’ll send subscribers a reminder email when we’re live on election night. We’ll also have a late-night podcast for paid subscribers once we have enough results to draw some conclusions. It’s an exciting week ahead!The full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here.We’re just three days out from Election Day, and we’ve got another weekend bonus episode for you. When it rains, it pours, my friends.Today, Nathaniel Rakich joins me for an hour-by-hour guide to Tuesday evening, from the first polls closing in Indiana and Kentucky to the long wait for Alaska. Which races will tell us whether we’re watching a blue tsunami or more of a ripple? How quickly does each state count its votes? And when will we know who won?Florida could give us our first substantial answers. It counts quickly and has enough competitive House races to tell us something about the breadth of a Democratic wave. Texas and Kansas should also report relatively quickly, giving us a look at two of Democrats’ biggest Senate targets. Michigan and Maine will require more patience.Nathaniel and I debate how early we’ll be able to tell who won the House. I’m inclined to stick my neck out; he brings his wet blanket (yes, I’m editorializing). The Senate could keep us waiting a week or more if control depends on Maine or Alaska. If either party secures a majority without those seats, we could know much sooner.So sit back, enjoy your morning coffee in bed, and get ready for Tuesday. As Nathaniel puts it: “Get in. We’re going electioning.”

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comAre you excited for Election Day? Well, get even more excited, because GD POLITICS is teaming up with Silver Bulletin and The Argument to bring you live election night coverage starting at 5:30 p.m. ET. There will be numbers, maps and probably an upset or two. Mark your calendars and join at gdpolitics.com!The full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here.We’re five days out, and the national environment looks rough for Republicans. The generic ballot sits at around D+9, and forecasters broadly agree that Democrats will take the House. The Senate is where the real argument lives, so that’s what I wanted to dig into on today’s episode with two pollsters who read the same data a little differently.Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights, sees the race for the Senate as a coin flip, with Texas as the potentially decisive pickup. His caution comes from the map and the track record: The median Senate battleground voted for Trump by about 12 points, and polling misses have clustered in red states and the Midwest, including Ohio and Iowa.Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket and The Argument puts the median outcome at Democrats winning 52 Senate seats. His case: In a D+9 environment, Ohio plays like an even state, and Sherrod Brown and James Talarico tend to run ahead of the generic ballot.Both expect Democrats’ biggest gains to come among Hispanic and Black voters, which favors the Sun Belt over the Midwest and prairie states. But both are skeptical of the late buzz about Mississippi and South Carolina.We also get into what the early vote can actually tell us and whether this election is a test of the GOP’s multiracial working-class coalition. Patrick, who wrote the book on it, says a 70–30 Democratic split among Hispanic voters would put his thesis in trouble. And we talk about why religion may be an underrated dividing line in American politics.Plus, each names a race where the consensus is most wrong, and we take a listener question on why rural voters are still so hard to poll.

Are you excited for Election Day? Well, get even more excited, because GD POLITICS is teaming up with Silver Bulletin and The Argument to bring you live election night coverage starting at 5:30 p.m. ET. There will be numbers, maps and probably an upset or two. Mark your calendars and join at gdpolitics.com!Earlier this year, while traveling in Ireland, I joined Hugh Linehan of The Irish Times for a crossover podcast comparing politics on either side of the Atlantic. With the midterms approaching, Hugh invited me back to Inside Politics to discuss the battle for Congress. I’m sharing that conversation as a bonus episode in the feed this week.We covered plenty of ground. Hugh asked me how such a polarized country could potentially produce as large an electoral swing as the polls are showing. We talked about how the midterm and presidential electorates differ and which voters are likeliest to change their minds or sit out.We also looked ahead: What will both parties learn from these elections? The temptation to read the midterms as a roadmap to the presidency is powerful. The historical relationship between midterm results and the next presidential election, though, looks less like a trend line than a Jackson Pollock painting.Hope you enjoy the change of pace on today’s episode! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe

We’re a week out from Election Day, nearly 30 million Americans have already voted, and Democrats are favored to win both chambers of Congress. But how far into Republican territory could a good night take them?We’ve dedicated episodes to Georgia, Texas and Alaska this cycle. So I asked folks in the paid subscriber chat which states they most wanted to hear about before November 3. The overwhelming preference was the prairie states: Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska. The Midwest came next, followed by requests for the reach states of Mississippi, Montana, Minnesota and South Carolina.Sadly, we don’t have time for an episode on every state. Don’t you wish election season could go on forever? No? Me neither.Instead, I’m joined by Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, to cover all the races you asked about in one episode.We start with the prairie states, where economic frustration and candidates who have distanced themselves from the Democratic Party are testing the limits of Republican loyalty. Can Rob Sand’s blend of faith, fiscal restraint and criticism of both parties win over Trump voters in Iowa? And can Adam Hamilton’s centrism in Kansas and Dan Osborn’s independent bid in Nebraska do the same?Then we head to Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin to explore why the same national environment can produce very different races. We also consider where an upset is most plausible among the reach states and why Jessica is watching South Carolina.Along the way, we discuss what early voting can actually tell us, whether split-ticket voting will hold up and what to make of Republicans spending money to defend states that once looked safe. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comHeads up: Last call for our 2026 election season discount of 20% off for first-time subscribers. We’ve got a lot planned for the final stretch of the midterms and beyond. Come join us!The full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here.The polls are coming in hot. Some of them are even real 😬. With the election entering its final stretch, Mary Radcliffe and Lenny Bronner join me for a bonus episode of GD Politics to sort through the numbers and the headlines competing for your attention.First, the state of the race. Democrats appear well positioned to win the House and are favored to win the Senate, with roughly a 75 percent chance of taking control. But how much confidence should we have in that picture? Mary explains why she’s watching rural voters, and we discuss signs in the data that the polls could be missing something.Then we get to some polls with a more fundamental problem: whether they’re real. Mary has been investigating fake pollsters whose numbers have made their way into polling averages. She walks us through how she uncovered them and the drama that ensued.We also consider the latest October surprises and the seasonal temptation to become an early voting analyst. This year’s early voting data comes with some new caveats.Finally, we head abroad to discuss France’s political turmoil and Israel’s upcoming election, where opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu brings together parties with very different politics. We went long on this one because there’s plenty to talk about. Happy weekend to everyone spending theirs listening to a politics podcast. You’re in good company!

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comHeads up: our 2026 election season discount is currently live! It’s 20% off paid subscriptions for first-time subscribers at gdpolitics.com. Join us for the final stretch of the midterms, election night and the aftermath — then it’s on to 2028! You’ll get Thursday episodes, virtual happy hours, merch discounts and access to our subscriber chat to ask questions and suggest topics. Join us!The full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here.What would it take for Donald Trump’s voters to give up on him? And if they did, would that mean giving Democrats a chance or just staying home?With less than two weeks until the midterms, those questions are being put to the test. Trump is 23 percentage points underwater with the American public, and Democrats lead on the congressional generic ballot by nine points.My guest today has spent the past eight years listening to voters explain why they support Trump, why they’ve turned against him, and sometimes why they’ve gone back. Sarah Longwell is a former Republican, publisher of The Bulwark, and host of The Focus Group. Her new book, How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time, argues that it’s possible to build a coalition that defeats Trump’s style of politics for good.That’s a bigger ambition than winning a midterm. So we examine what would have to change to make it happen and whether the dissatisfaction Longwell hears from Trump voters could translate into lasting support for Democrats.We also discuss how today’s swing voters have changed and when better messaging can help versus when voters simply don’t like a party’s policies. Finally, Longwell weighs in on the 2028 Democratic presidential field, including the picks from our recent candidate draft over at Still Counting.

Heads up: our 2026 election season discount is currently live! It’s 20% off paid subscriptions for first-time subscribers at gdpolitics.com. Join us for the final stretch of the midterms, election night and the aftermath — then it’s on to 2028! You’ll get Thursday episodes, virtual happy hours, merch discounts and access to our subscriber chat to ask questions and suggest topics. Join us!Since President Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election, there’s been an extra question hanging over American elections. Not just who will win, but whether the will of the voters will be respected.With roughly two weeks until Election Day, I wanted to sort through the concerns surrounding the midterms and distinguish the plausible threats from the more farfetched scenarios. So today, Votebeat managing editor and friend of the pod Nathaniel Rakich joins me to walk through what could go wrong before, during and after the election.First, a brief soapbox moment: Republican and Democratic GDers are equally welcome here. Disagreeing about how the country should be governed is why we have elections. But respecting the results once we’ve settled on the rules is a prerequisite for that disagreement to mean anything. And so this is an area of coverage where we don’t really mess around.That said, Nathaniel’s assessment is somewhat reassuring. In Votebeat’s informal survey of 31 election experts, respondents generally expected challenges to the election, but did not expect those challenges to overturn the results. That still leaves plenty of room for damage.We discuss bureaucratic errors, the strain on local election offices, the difference between routine poll monitoring and intimidation, and the possibility of federal interference in counting ballots.The biggest variable in Nathaniel’s outlook is also a familiar one: the margin. A decisive result leaves much less room for mischief. A razor-thin race that determines control of the Senate, with ballots still being counted days later, is a more concerning prospect.So how much anxiety is warranted, and where should we direct our attention? That’s the conversation today. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe