How to Succeed at Failing, Part 1: The Chain of Events (Update)

We tend to think of tragedies as a single terrible moment, rather than the result of multiple bad decisions. Can this pattern be reversed? We try — with stories about wildfires, school shootings, and love. SOURCES:Amy Edmondson, professor of leadership management at Harvard Business School.Helen Fisher, former senior research fellow at The Kinsey Institute and former chief science advisor to Match.com.Ed Galea, founding director of the Fire Safety Engineering Group at the University of Greenwich.Gary Klein, cognitive psychologist and pioneer in the field of naturalistic decision making.David Riedman, founder of the K-12 School Shooting Database.Aaron Stark, head cashier at Lowe's and keynote speaker.John Van Reenen, professor at the London School of Economics. RESOURCES:"Ethan Crumbley: Parents of Michigan school gunman sentenced to at least 10 years," by Brandon Drenon (New York Times, 2024).Right Kind of Wrong: The Science of Failing Well, by Amy Edmondson (2023)."How Fire Turned Lahaina Into a Death Trap," by Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, Serge F. Kovaleski, Shawn Hubler, and Riley Mellen (The New York Times, 2023).The Violence Project: How to Stop a Mass Shooting Epidemic, by Jillian Peterson and James Densley (2021)."I Was Almost A School Shooter," by Aaron Stark (TEDxBoulder, 2018). EXTRAS: "Is Perfectionism Ruining Your Life?" by People I (Mostly) Admire (2023)."Why Did You Marry That Person?" by Freakonomics Radio (2022)."What Do We Really Learn From Failure?" by No Stupid Questions (2021)."How to Fail Like a Pro," by Freakonomics Radio (2019)."Failure Is Your Friend," by Freakonomics Radio (2014).

It used to be that making documentary films meant taking a vow of poverty (and obscurity). The streaming revolution changed that. Award-winning filmmaker R.J. Cutler talks to Stephen Dubner about capturing Billie Eilish’s musical genius and Martha Stewart’s vulnerability — and why he really, really, really needs to make a film about the New York Mets. SOURCES:R.J. Cutler, filmmaker. RESOURCES:Fight for Glory, documentary (2025).Martha, documentary (2024)."Reality Check: The Boom—or Glut—in Streaming Documentaries Has Sparked a Reckoning Among Filmmakers and Their Subjects," by Reeves Wiedeman (Vulture, 2023)."Inside the Documentary Cash Grab," by Mia Galuppo and Katie Kilkenny (The Hollywood Reporter, 2022).Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry, documentary (2021). EXTRAS:“Ari Emanuel Is Never Indifferent,” by Freakonomics Radio (2023).

It’s been in development for five years and has at least a year to go. On the eve of its out-of-town debut, the actor playing Lincoln quit. And the producers still need to raise another $15 million to bring the show to New York. There really is no business like show business. (Part three of a three-part series.) SOURCES:Christopher Ashley, artistic director of La Jolla Playhouse.Debby Buchholz, managing director of La Jolla Playhouse.Carmen Cusack, actor.Quentin Earl Darrington, actor.Joe DiPietro, playwright and lyricist.Crystal Monee Hall, composer, singer, actor.Ivan Hernandez, actor.Michael Rushton, professor of arts administration at Indiana University.Jeffrey Seller, Broadway producer.Alan Shorr, Broadway producer.Daniel Watts, writer, choreographer, actor. RESOURCES:3 Summers of Lincoln (2025)."Review: Visceral ‘3 Summers of Lincoln’ is thrilling and thought-provoking," by Pam Kragen (San Diego Union-Tribune, 2025)."What’s Wrong with the Theatre is What’s Wrong With Society," by Michael Rushton (ArtsJournal, 2023)."American Theater Is Imploding Before Our Eyes," by Isaac Butler (New York Times, 2023).The Moral Foundations of Public Funding for the Arts, by Michael Rushton (2023). EXTRAS:“How to Make the Coolest Show on Broadway,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).“You Can Make a Killing, but Not a Living,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

In an episode from 2012, we looked at what Sleep No More and the Stanford Prison Experiment can tell us about who we really are. SOURCES:Felix Barrett, artistic director of Punchdrunk.Steven Levitt, professor of economics at the University of Chicago.Philip Zimbardo, professor emeritus at Stanford University. RESOURCES:“Philip Zimbardo, the psychologist behind the ‘Stanford Prison Experiment,’ dies at 91,” by Melissa De Witte (Stanford Report, 2024).“Debunking the Stanford Prison Experiment,” by Thibault Le Texier (American Psychologist, 2019).“The Lifespan of a Lie,” by Ben Blum (GEN, 2018).Punchdrunk. EXTRAS:“How Is Live Theater Still Alive?” by Freakonomics Radio (2025)."Why Is There So Much Fraud in Academia?" by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

A hit like Hamilton can come from nowhere while a sure bet can lose $20 million in a flash. We speak with some of the biggest producers in the game — Sonia Friedman, Jeffrey Seller, Hal Luftig — and learn that there is only one guarantee: the theater owners always win. (Part two of a three-part series.) SOURCES:Debby Buchholz, managing director of La Jolla Playhouse.Sonia Friedman, Broadway producer.Rocco Landesman, Broadway producer, former owner of Jujamcyn Theaters, former chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts.Hal Luftig, Broadway producer.Luis Miranda Jr., political strategist, founding president of the Hispanic Federation, the Northern Manhattan Arts Alliance, Viva Broadway, and The Public Theater.Michael Rushton, professor of arts administration at Indiana University.Jeffrey Seller, Broadway producer.Richard Winkler, Broadway producer.Stacy Wolf, professor of theater at Princeton University. RESOURCES:Theater Kid: A Broadway Memoir, by Jeffrey Seller (2025).Relentless: My Story of the Latino Spirit That Is Transforming America, by Luis Miranda Jr. (2024).Beyond Broadway: The Pleasure and Promise of Musical Theatre Across America, by Stacy Wolf (2019)."‘Hamilton’ Inc.: The Path to a Billion-Dollar Broadway Show," by Michael Paulson and David Gelles (New York Times, 2016)."On the Performing Arts: The Anatomy of Their Economic Problems," by W.J. Baumol and W.G. Bowen (The American Economic Review, 1965). EXTRAS:“How to Make the Coolest Show on Broadway,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).“You Can Make a Killing, but Not a Living,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

It has become fiendishly expensive to produce, and has more competition than ever. And yet the believers still believe. Why? And does the world really want a new musical about ... Abraham Lincoln?! (Part one of a three-part series.) SOURCES:Christopher Ashley, artistic director of La Jolla Playhouse.Quentin Darrington, actor.Joe DiPietro, playwright and lyricist.Crystal Monee Hall, composer, singer, actor.Rocco Landesman, Broadway producer, former owner of Jujamcyn Theaters, former chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts.Alan Shorr, Broadway producer.Daniel Watts, writer, choreographer, actor.Richard Winkler, Broadway producer. RESOURCES:3 Summers of Lincoln (2025)“Live Performance Theaters in the US - Market Research Report (2014-2029),” by Grace Wood (IBISWorld, 2024). Leadership: In Turbulent Times, by Doris Kearns Goodwin (2018).Big River (1984) EXTRAS:“How to Make the Coolest Show on Broadway,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).“You Can Make a Killing, but Not a Living,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

Why do so many promising solutions in education, medicine, and criminal justice fail to scale up into great policy? And can a new breed of “implementation scientists” crack the code? SOURCES:Patti Chamberlain, senior research scientist at the Oregon Social Learning Center.John List, professor of economics at the University of Chicago.Lauren Supplee, former deputy chief operating officer at Child Trends.Dana L. Suskind, professor of surgery at the University of Chicago. RESOURCES:“How Can Experiments Play a Greater Role in Public Policy? 12 Proposals from an Economic Model of Scaling,” by Omar Al-Ubaydli, John List, Claire Mackevicius, Min Sok Lee, and Dana Suskind.“The Science of Using Science: Towards an Understanding of the Threats to Scaling Experiments,” by Omar Al-Ubaydli, John List, and Dana Suskind (The Field Experiments Website, 2019).“Inconsistent Device Use in Pediatric Cochlear Implant Users: Prevalence and Risk Factors,” by K.B.Wiseman and A.D. Warner-Czyz (U.S. National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health, 2018). EXTRAS:"Why Do Most Ideas Fail to Scale?" by Freakonomics Radio (2022)."The Price of Doing Business with John List," by People I (Mostly) Admire (2022).Child Trends.Oregon Social Learning Center.T.M.W. Center for Early Learning and Public Health.The Field Experiments Website.

There is no sludgier place in America than Washington, D.C. But there are signs of a change. We’ll hear about this progress — and ask where Elon Musk and DOGE fit in. (Part two of a two-part series.) SOURCES:Benjamin Handel, professor of economics at UC Berkeley.Neale Mahoney, professor of economics at Stanford University.Jennifer Pahlka, founder of Code for America.Richard Thaler, professor of economics at The University of Chicago. RESOURCES:"How Big Is the Subscription Cancellation Problem?" by Giacomo Fraccaroli, Neale Mahoney, and Zahra Thabet (Briefing Book, 2024).Recoding America: Why Government Is Failing in the Digital Age and How We Can Do Better, by Jennifer Pahlka (2023).Nudge: The Final Edition, by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein (2021)."HealthCare.gov: Case Study of CMS Management of the Federal Marketplace," by Daniel Levinson (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2016). EXTRAS:"Sludge, Part 1: The World Is Drowning in It," by Freakonomics Radio (2025).

Insurance forms that make no sense. Subscriptions that can’t be cancelled. A never-ending blizzard of automated notifications. Where does all this sludge come from — and how much is it costing us? (Part one of a two-part series.) SOURCES:Benjamin Handel, professor of economics at UC Berkeley.Neale Mahoney, professor of economics at Stanford University.Richard Thaler, professor of economics at The University of Chicago. RESOURCES:"Selling Subscriptions," by Liran Einav, Ben Klopack, and Neale Mahoney (Stanford University, 2023)."The ‘Enshittification’ of TikTok," by Cory Doctorow (WIRED, 2023)."Dominated Options in Health Insurance Plans," by Chenyuan Liu and Justin Sydnor (American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2022).Nudge (The Final Edition), by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein (2021)."Frictions or Mental Gaps: What’s Behind the Information We (Don’t) Use and When Do We Care?" by Benjamin Handel and Joshua Schwartzstein (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2018)."Adverse Selection and Switching Costs in Health Insurance Markets: When Nudging Hurts," by Benjamin Handel (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2011). EXTRAS:"People Aren’t Dumb. The World Is Hard. (Update)" by Freakonomics Radio (2024)."All You Need is Nudge," by Freakonomics Radio (2021)."How to Fix the Hot Mess of U.S. Healthcare," by Freakonomics Radio (2021)."Should We Really Behave Like Economists Say We Do?" by Freakonomics Radio (2015).

The quirky little grocery chain with California roots and German ownership has a lot to teach all of us about choice architecture, efficiency, frugality, collaboration, and team spirit. SOURCES:Kirk DesErmia, facilities manager in Seward, Alaska.Mark Gardiner, journalist and author.Sheena Iyengar, professor of business at Columbia Business School.Michael Roberto, professor of management at Bryant University. RESOURCES:“Trader Joe’s,” David Ager and Michael Roberto (Harvard Business School Case, 2014).“What Brands Are Actually Behind Trader Joe’s Snacks?,” Vince Dixon (Eater, 2017).Build a Brand Like Trader Joe’s by Mark Gardiner (2012).“When Choice is Demotivating: Can One Desire Too Much of a Good Thing?,” Sheena Iyengar and Mark Lepper (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2000).Unlocking Creativity, by Michael Roberto (2019). EXTRAS:“How Can This Possibly Be True?,” by Freakonomics Radio (2016).“How to Save $1 Billion Without Even Trying,” by Freakonomics Radio (2016).