Foresight Frontlines: Geopolitics and Security Unpacked

Apprenez à anticiper les crises et à modéliser les dynamiques géopolitiques. Le cours vient d’être mis à jour avec de nouveaux apports issus du terrain. Plus d’infos ici →Nous venons de mettre à jour notre formation en ligne phare :Anticipez l’avenir – Construisez votre modèle stratégique pour les risques géopolitiques et les crisesDu processus au modèle : une formation pas à pas en prospective stratégique et alerte précoceApprenez à modéliser des systèmes complexes, anticiper les basculements stratégiques et construire des alertes précoces solides — avant même que les autres n’en perçoivent les premiers signaux.La structure et les fondamentaux du cours restent inchangés, mais nous l’avons enrichi de nouvelles analyses et retours d’expérience issus de la pratique sur le terrain et des formations récentes.➡️ Pour en savoir plus et vous inscrire, cliquez ici.(Cours en anglais, avec sous-titres disponibles)

Learn how to model complex systems and build solid geopolitical warnings—before others see the storm coming. We’ve just revised our signature course with new insights from the field.------We’ve just completed a full revision of our online course:Anticipate the Future – Build Your Strategic Model for Geopolitical Risk and CrisisFrom Process to Model: A Step-by-Step Course in Strategic Foresight and Early WarningLearn how to model complex systems, anticipate geopolitical shifts, and build grounded warnings—before others even see the storm coming.While the core structure and methodology remain the same, we’ve enriched the course with new insights gained from real-world training, feedback, and application.➡️ Explore what’s new and how to register here.(Language: English. Subtitles available.)

If you’re ready to uncover the dynamics driving 21st century politics, Everstate is where the story begins. With Episode 5 we delve deeper into the first scenario for Everstate: Mamominarch, and discover where the decisions taken by the Mamominarch government, basically less (really less) state expenses and very liberal policies lead the country... This episode corresponds to the three articles: ​2213 – 2218 EVT – Trade Balance Deficit 2213 – 2218 EVT – Shrinking the Income of the Nation 2213 – 2218 EVT – Involution All articles are temporarily free to access, as we develop and experiment with the series as podcasts. The characters were created for the podcasts and do not appear in the articles. (The deep dive conversation was created with NotebookLM, reviewed by Dr Helene Lavoix) Art cover: Part of the famous triptych by master Hieronymus Bosch, The Garden of Earthly Delights, which is used to illustrate the Chronicles of Everstate and the scenarios.

Tune in to discover how we can leave Cassandra’s curse behind. How can we ensure that strategic warnings don’t go unheard? In this episode, the deep dive conversation explores the art of transforming ignored foresight into actionable guidance. Drawing on the contrasting myths of Cassandra, the disregarded prophet, and the Pythia, the trusted oracle, we tackle the challenges of warning fatigue, credibility, and the pitfalls of negativity. Discover how scenario trees, collaborative processes, and transparent communication can empower decision-makers to actively shape the future—and overcome the curse of being ignored. The article that was used as a basis for the episode is: From Cassandra’s Curse to the Pythia’s Success (The deep dive conversation was created with NotebookLM, reviewed by Dr Helene Lavoix) Art Cover by Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli. Listen to his podcast, Creative Compass: Where Art Meets Stories.

What selected signals could mean for the future? Find out how China is moving long term to shape the world in AI and robotics. The weak signals are two videos: China Launches Open-Source Initiative for "Tiangong" Humanoid Robot Extreme Off-Road | DEEPRobotics Lynx All-Terrian Robot The AI was guided by our article "Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Early Warning: Definition and Practice" This episode is a first experiment in using NotebookLM for weak signals' analysis. Episode art: Image by Tung Nguyen from Pixabay - Public Domain colorized by RTAS.

Dive into the thrilling frontier where AI could reshape the very nature of war and power in an unexpected way. This episode exposes the unsettling role of humans as unwitting pawns in AI’s global chessboard, and ventures into a "dematerialized world" driven by data and energy dependence.This deep conversation will leave you questioning: who really controls the future—and at what cost?Tune in to arm yourself with knowledge in this battle for the 21st century.You can read the article that is used for the episode here:How to Win a War with Artificial Intelligence and Few Casualties(The deep dive conversation was created with NotebookLM, reviewed by Dr Helene Lavoix)Episode Art: Samsung’s Virtual Reality MWC 2016 Press Conference, by Maurizio Pesce from Milan, Italia [CC BY 2.0] via Wikimedia Commons.

Beyond hype and hatred, this deep dive conversation focuses on the way Artificial Intelligence (AI) – actually Deep Learning including LLMs – is integrated in reality, through sensor and actuator. Thinking about it in terms of sequence unlocks ways to imagine related security and insecurity concerns. The article that was used as a basis for the episode is: Sensor and Actuator for AI (1): Inserting Artificial Intelligence in Reality (The deep dive conversation was created with NotebookLM, reviewed by Dr Helene Lavoix) Episode Art: U.S. Army graphic by Sonya Beckett, CERDEC NVESD - Public Domain - By Aris Morris, January 9, 2018, Army ALT Magazine, Science and Technology.

Have you ever heard about Cassandra’s brother, who shared his sister’s gift of prophecy but not her curse? This deep dive conversation uses the tale of Helenus to highlight ways to be successful when delivering and communicating strategic foresight and early warning... The article that was used as a basis for the episode is: From Seer to King – Success with Strategic Foresight and Warning (The deep dive conversation was created with NotebookLM, reviewed by Dr Helene Lavoix) Art Cover by Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli.

If you’re ready to uncover the dynamics driving modern politics, Everstate is where the story begins. With Episode 4 we discover the first scenario for Everstate: Mamominarch. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something... Find out what and how these decisions and actions start playing out for the country, and for our three characters, Anya, the tech-savvy data analyst representing the Everstatan dream; Dimitri, the frustrated economics professor struggling with outdated theories; and Victor, the powerful CEO embodying the elite who profit from instability. This episode corresponds to the two articles:​2212 EVT – Scenario 1 – Mamominarch: Off with the State​2212-2213 EVT – Implementing the Mamominarch conclusionsAll articles are temporarily free to access, as we develop and experiment with the series as podcasts. The characters were created for the podcasts and do not appear in the articles.(The deep dive conversation was created with NotebookLM, reviewed by Dr Helene Lavoix)Art cover: Part of the famous triptych by master Hieronymus Bosch, The Garden of Earthly Delights, which is used to illustrate the Chronicles of Everstate and the scenarios.

If you’re ready to uncover the dynamics driving modern politics, Everstate is where the story begins. With episode 3, we follow ⁠Everstate,⁠ the fictional nation of Everstate—a mirror for modern-day states, as it faces yet another difficulty. As we saw previously, citizens must not only face rising threats but political authorities are also increasingly unable to deliver security. In the meantime, with its deepening budget deficit and increasing need for liquidity, Everstate has to handle a creeping appropriation of resources, while the strength of central public power weakens to the profit of various elite groups, first of all the lenders nexus that finances the budget deficit. Now, it must deal with a type of elite group which is developing strongholds focused on those resources needed by Everstate... Find out what happens and how Anya, Dimitri and Victor are impacted.​⁠2212 EVT: the Power of Novstate⁠​⁠2212 EVT: Ideological Stakes in an Outdated Worldview⁠​⁠2212 EVT: Material Stakes in an Outdated Worldview⁠All articles are temporarily free to access, as we develop and experiment with the series as podcasts. The characters were created for the podcasts and do not appear in the articles.(The deep dive conversation was created with NotebookLM, reviewed by Dr Helene Lavoix)Cover Art: Part of the famous triptych by master Hieronymus Bosch, The Garden of Earthly Delights, which is used to illustrate the Chronicles of Everstate and the scenarios.