Global Credit Risk through 1H24

Lyuba Petrova, Lyle Margolis and Justin Patrie examine bubble risks as equities surge, credit spreads tighten, private credit faces hidden vulnerabilities and AI investment accelerates, though valuations suggest buyers aren’t overpaying.

Shelly Shetty and Todd Martinez analyze Argentina’s mid-term elections, what Milei’s stronger legislative backing means for reforms, and the lingering risks around reserves and external liquidity.

James Longsdon, Head of Global Sovereigns and Supranationals, and Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereign Ratings, discuss Western Europe’s fiscal divergence, recent upgrades and downgrades, and Fitch’s deficit outlook.

Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary & Research, and Sarah Repucci, Senior Director, Credit Commentary & Research, discuss emerging challenges for the AI-fueled US data center boom, covering investment, rising costs, impact on utilities and more.

Paul Gamble, Head of Middle East and Africa (MEA) Sovereigns, and Cedric Berry, Director, MEA Sovereigns, discuss GCC efforts to diversify their economies beyond oil, and the varied pace of progress across the region.

Justin Patrie and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how emerging market credits are faring this year amid slower global growth, geopolitical risks, and shifting U.S. policy - highlighting ratings resilience and modest positive momentum.

Justin Patrie and David Prowse discuss key themes from Fitch’s Global Credit Risk Outlook, including slower growth, tariff uncertainty, and weaker credit conditions—as well as the overall ratings resilience amid these challenges.

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Krisjanis Krustins, lead analyst for Japan, discuss Japan’s fiscal outlook, covering the impact of rising bond yields, fiscal populism and long-term spending pressures.

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, discuss Fitch’s mid-year Global Economic Outlook, focusing on global growth forecast updates since April and how tariffs are driving key changes to projections.

The credit outlook for global corporates has worsened in 2025, with 14 sectors and sub-sectors deteriorating at mid-year vs. 5 at end-2024. Justin Patrie and Carla Taylor, Head of Research for the Americas, discuss the drivers and implications.