Episode 449: Smoke Signals – The Global Stakes of the Next Pope

Today, Jess, Les, Matt, and Algene break down the latest developments in U.S. trade policy. A new U.S.-UK agreement lowers tariffs on select British imports to 10%, including automobiles, aluminum, and steel. Meanwhile, the U.S. and China are set to meet this weekend in Geneva to jumpstart trade talks aimed at easing escalating tensions, as President Trump recently declared on social media that an 80% tariff on Chinese goods "seems right.”Is the U.S.-UK trade deal a meaningful step forward, or a symbolic win? Can the upcoming U.S.-China talks ease economic pressure and provide relief for American businesses and consumers? What are the national security stakes in U.S.-China trade negotiations?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out these stories which helped shape our experts’ opinions.  https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/china-agrees-to-trade-talks-with-the-u-s-and-rolls-out-more-stimulus-as-tariffs-hit-economyhttps://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-says-china-wants-negotiate-meet-right-time-2025-05-06/https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/trump-us-uk-trade-announcementhttps://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ready-fresh-100-billion-counterstrike-donald-trump-tariffs/Follow our experts on Twitter: @NotTVJessJones@lestermunson@WMattHayden@AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/430xXMUN30I  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Matt, and Jess unpack the opening of the Papal Conclave, where 133 cardinals will vote to elect the next leader of the Catholic Church following Pope Francis' death. As the Church prepares for a new era, the next pontiff will inherit a vast and diverse flock of 1.4 billion people—and a complex geopolitical role.What legacy does Pope Francis leave behind? How will the next pope shape global diplomacy, from China to Ukraine to Africa and Latin America? Will this be a time of renewed outreach or internal retrenchment—and how will growing Catholic populations across the world influence the direction of the Church for the next 25 years?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines. Follow our experts on Twitter: @morganlroach@lestermunson@WMattHayden@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/Y2fkorABorQ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, Andrew, and Matt unpack the latest developments in U.S.-Ukraine relations—from a newly signed mineral deal with financial provisions for reconstruction deal to reports of Ukrainian sea drones downing Russian fighter jets with U.S. tech, and the transfer of Patriot missile systems. With these moves, the U.S. is significantly increasing its support for Ukraine’s battlefield capabilities.Is this a turning point in the Trump administration’s approach to Ukraine? What do these shifts mean for deterrence, reconstruction, and European defense? And with Zelensky and Trump’s Vatican meeting behind them, is the U.S.-Ukraine relationship entering a new phase of partnership?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines. Check out the sources that helped inform our experts today: https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukrainian-naval-drones-shoot-down-russian-jets-in-military-first-kyiv-says-bc0eaf08 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-patriot-systems.html Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@WMattHayden@AndrewBoreneLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/uYCo7qhquGM  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Les, and Andrew discuss the sudden removal of National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who has now been nominated by President Trump to serve as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. While framed as a promotion, many view the shift as a demotion in both political influence and strategic significance—especially as Waltz’s hawkish stance on Russia, China, and Iran put him at odds with a more isolationist wing of the administration.Is this a sign the Trump administration is softening on Iran? What message does this send to allies and adversaries alike? And with Marco Rubio now wearing multiple hats as Secretary of State, acting USAID administrator, and interim National Security Advisor, is this a moment of consolidation—or further chaos?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines. Check out the sources that helped inform our experts today: https://apnews.com/live/donald-trump-news-updates-5-1-2025 https://www.bbc.com/news/live/crkx3ed5dn2t Follow our experts on Twitter: @marthamillerdc@lestermunson@AndrewBoreneLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/FTR22P675n0  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, Morgan, and Jess take stock of President Trump’s first 101 days back in office. From sweeping global tariffs on “Liberation Day” to high-stakes negotiations in Gaza, Ukraine, and Iran, the administration has taken an aggressive approach to foreign policy—with mixed results. Domestically, hardline immigration policies and sharp cuts to foreign aid have pleased the base, while chaos and concern continue around national security decision-making.Is the Trump administration delivering on its promises or generating more confusion than progress? Has its pressure on allies—from Canada to Greenland to Panama—strengthened U.S. leverage or isolated it further? And as Europe scrambles for cohesion, how would you grade the administration so far?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines. Follow our experts on Twitter: @marthamillerdc@lestermunson@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/_5PkcTRFDTM Photo courtesy of Adobe Stock. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Les, Morgan, and Matt break down the major explosion at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port—a key hub for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that plays a crucial role in supplying proxies and moving sanctionable goods. With at least 40 dead, and early reports linking missile propellant sourced from China to the blast, the incident raises urgent questions about Iran’s illicit networks, foreign support, and the growing ties between Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing.Will this explosion reshape Iran’s ability to supply its proxies? What are the geopolitical implications? As Iran remains weakened, is now the moment for a more aggressive approach to dismantle its nuclear ambitions, or will Trump return to a JCPOA-style deal?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out these sources which helped shape our Fellows’ conversation: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx251yyvwr3o https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/27/russia-sends-help-to-iran-after-deadly-port-explosionhttps://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-851637https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/26/world/middleeast/us-iran-nuclear-talks.htmlFollow our experts on Twitter: @marthamillerdc@lestermunson@morganlroach@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/mau4aw6M94c Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Martha, Morgan, and Algene discuss the latest Ukraine ceasefire talks in London. With Trump envoy Keith Kellogg at the table, the administration is signaling it might walk away if a deal is not reached quickly. The administration’s push for Ukraine to give up Crimea, alongside Trump’s public frustration over continued Russian attacks, has raised concern among Ukraine’s allies.What happens if the U.S. takes a step back from the conflict? Does the Trump Administration's Ukraine strategy embolden China? Does Zelensky have the leverage to resist a deal that hands Crimea to Russia? Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out these sources which helped shape our Fellows’ conversation: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/world/europe/ukraine-cease-fire-talks-london.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20250423&instance_id=153146&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=71709507&segment_id=196578&user_id=b36bb8b1fddc039dd3b9788419691dbdhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/europe/europe-ukraine-russia-trump.htmlhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/24/trump-presidency-news/ Follow our experts on Twitter: @NotTVJessJones@morganlroach@marthamillerdc@AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/o_DuLxekPYg  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Martha, and Jess break down Vice President JD Vance’s visit to India—a trip originally billed as personal but packed with high-level meetings and geopolitical implications. Vance’s arrival coincided with the deadliest terrorist attack in Kashmir in nearly 20 years, as gunmen killed at least two dozen tourists. As India blames Pakistan, tensions are rising, just as the U.S. seeks to deepen trade and security ties with New Delhi. What does this attack mean for India’s potential military response—and for regional stability? Can the U.S. and India align more closely on counterterrorism and China strategy? And with Trump and Vance pursuing a more transactional approach to diplomacy, is this the moment to finally lock in a U.S.-India trade agreement?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out these sources which helped shape our Fellows’ conversation: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/india-kashmir-terror-attack-tourists-killed-wounded-pahalgam/ Follow our experts on Twitter: @morganlroach@NotTVJessJones@marthamillerdcLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/5F1Mj-0zC4k  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, Bishop, and Amy unpack the latest controversy surrounding Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who’s now facing allegations of leaking classified information via another Signal chat—just days after three senior aides were abruptly fired. The allegations raise serious questions about process, discipline, and accountability at the heart of the Pentagon.Is the Trump administration holding Hegseth to a different standard? What are the consequences of removing the senior political staff who understand how the Department of Defense operates? And with growing concerns over the handling of classified information and a lack of internal checks, will Congress step in to create accountability in the system?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.msnbc.com/weekends-with-alex-witt/watch/-nothing-about-this-is-normal-fmr-pentagon-official-blasts-turmoil-in-hegseth-s-pentagon-staff-237948997897 https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/04/16/pentagon-inquiry-hegseth-suspends-caldwell-selnick/ https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/20/ullyot-pentagon-hegseth-chaos-00300695 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/19/hegseth-leak-probe-officials-ousted/5380c9f0-1d7b-11f0-9160-306c35f9b3a8_story.html Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@amykmitchell@BishopGarrisonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/cug1_ERc_7Y  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Martha, and Les discuss Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s visit to the White House. As the EU’s unofficial emissary, Meloni is hoping to head off an EU-U.S. trade war. Trump says a deal is coming “100%,” but he’s in no rush. Meanwhile, the EU is in talks with China over EV tariffs, as Trump reportedly ups pressure on Europe to pick a side: Washington or Beijing. Oh, and NASA has found signs of life on an exoplanet. From trade to space and everything in between—it’s a very Fun Friday.Is Trump driving a wedge between the EU and China—or just improvising one day at a time? Can Meloni, a right-wing nationalist, effectively represent Europe’s broader interests? Does NASA and the Trump Administration know more than they’re saying about alien life?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/trump-100-confident-of-trade-deal-with-eu-during-italian-pm-melonis-us-visit/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/04/16/meloni-italy-eu-tariffs-trump/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-china-start-talks-lifting-eu-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-handelsblatt-2025-04-10/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2025/04/16/alien-life-exoplanet-webb-telescope/Follow our experts on Twitter: @NotTVJessJones@lestermunson@marthamillerdcLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/EuMN6WzKIPg  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.