Overconfidence

Replace "this won't happen" with "what if" and give your strategy a fighting chance. Volatility isn’t just a number — it’s the signal that tells you whether your strategy will survive shocks or be blindsided by them. This podcast starts our VUCA series and shows why time horizon, human bias, and narrative scenarios matter more than averages. Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity to follow.  

Execution isn’t speed or perfection. It’s reliable delivery under chaos. Use these six steps to get there. Great ideas can fail simply because execution breaks down? In episode 70 of Crossing Thin Ice, hosts Max Rudolph and David Ingram show how risk management helps with good execution to turn plans into predictable profit. This episode walks through six practical pillars that make execution reliable even when reality diverges from the plan. You’ll hear real-world examples you can take up and apply with the help of your ERM program. This conversation is practical, practitioner-focused, and geared to leaders who want execution that survives stress and delivers consistent results.

Most ORSA reports definitely fall into the TLDR category. But you can tell the ORSA with a clear, fast story that will become a part of the strategy discussion. This podcast tells how to turn a dense solvency exercise into an elevator pitch that earns attention, builds confidence, and links risk work to strategy. You’ll see why some ERM programs thrive and others wither, and how a small change in communication can protect capital and enhance decision-making. Read this if you want your next ORSA to be useful, not just compliant — and to get executives listening. Skip the noise—make your ORSA count today. Read the blog post:  https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/orsa-rides-the-elevator 

Data centers, AI, and local energy and water systems are colliding — and communities are feeling the strain. In this episode, we break down how data centers drive local jobs and growth but also demand massive electricity and millions of gallons of cooling water. We dig into real-world impacts (with Memphis as a case study), the strain on local grids, and the tradeoffs between diesel, natural gas, and renewable power. You will learn about closed-loop cooling, reclaimed-water and air-cooling options, and why narrow, task-focused AI could cut future energy use. We also discuss the economic risks when data-center buildouts outpace real demand and what municipalities should demand from operators — from rate guarantees to public environmental review.

Good timing is a critical advantage in product launches and broader risk management. But you need to be ready.  Readiness is internal - organizational alignment, product, operations, finance, and sales - and external - economic, technology, regulatory, cyclical, customer, and competitive timing. Risk management helps by monitoring the environment, promoting transparency, running stress tests and scenarios, setting limits and early warnings, and building adaptability. Real examples from variable annuities and long-term care show how well‑timed hedging or market entry can protect companies — and how bad timing can be costly. The takeaway: ensure both internal and external readiness before you launch.

Can insurers treat premiums like a cheap loan — and when does that bet blow up? In this episode we unpack “investing for float”: where it can boost returns, why annuities and life blocks are fragile, and how gaps in ALM, liquidity and regulation can turn clever strategies into industry-wide risk. Practical checks for boards, investors and regulators throughout.

True business success often hinges less on the risks taken and more on the quality of judgment, timing, and execution. Yet, what precisely constitutes “good judgment” in the fast-paced world of commerce remains a profound, elusive question. How do leaders consistently make the right choices and identify the most probable paths to victory? Navigating this critical challenge is paramount for any enterprise aiming to thrive and secure its future. Read this story at  https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/good-judgment-with-risk-management 

Many of the most extreme dangers aren’t where people are looking. When risks are “in the light”—visible and priced—they get managed and shrink. But when risks are “in the dark” they quietly grow until a shock exposes them, often after it is too late to do anything about them. Hear about over 30 risks that are in the dark for many business leaders.  And a strategy for surviving.  Risks grow in the dark until the light finds them - but too late.  

What if the world's largest rainforest became a savanna? The Sahara was once lush. Could the Amazon face a similar fate within a generation?  Deforestation isn't just about trees. It's also about changing global weather patterns. Understanding environmental feedback loops is key to preparing for our future. Read this story at https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/deforestation-and-feedback-loops

Ever wished you could practice for those critical conversations or high-stakes scenarios before they happen? In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Max Rudolph and David Ingram dive into the transformative power of AI simulations for risk management and professional development. Discover how these innovative AI-powered role-playing games allow Chief Risk Officers, actuaries, and their teams to hone communication skills, prepare for board presentations, navigate emerging risks, and even shape organizational risk culture. You can get personalized feedback from virtual mentors and gain invaluable experience in a safe, simulated environment.  Stop wishing you had a do-over.  Now you have have a try-before.