#352 - Our Bayesian Priors: A Dialogue with Tom Chivers

In this episode, Xavier Bonilla has a conversation with Michael Cook about the history of the Muslim world. They discuss Islamic civilization from origins to modernity, early antecedents before Islam, genesis of Islam, and the Prophet Muhammad and his creation of a monotheistic religion and state. They discuss succession after the death of Muhammad and the caliphate, the Umayyid dynasty, the Abbasid dynasty, and how important Islam and the Arabic language were for an Islamic civilization. They talk about the origin of the Turks, Bilga Qaghan, Turks being pagan and interacting with Islam, and the three ways the Turks spread out of the Steppe. They discuss the Mongols and their relationship with Islam, the Seljuk dynasty, the Safawid dynasty and the impact of Shiism. They also talk about the Ottoman Empire and their administration and integration of other cultures. They discuss the spread of Islam into India by conquest and merchants, Islam in Southeast Asia and around the Indian Ocean, Sahara and central Africa, and conflict between Christians and Muslims in Ethiopia. They also discuss Arab identity, Islam’s spread through conquest, Islam juxtaposed with other religions and cultures, Islam in the modern period, future of Islam, and many other topics. Michael Cook is the Class of 1943 University Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University. He was educated at Cambridge studying English and European history and learned Turkish and Persian. He was also educated at the School of Oriental and African Studies in the University of London, emphasizing research into Ottoman population history in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. He spent many years teaching and researching Islamic history at the School of Oriental and African Studies. He is the author of numerous books, including the most recent book, A History of the Muslim World: From its Origins to the Dawn of Modernity. Get full access to Converging Dialogues at convergingdialogues.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Xavier Bonilla has a dialogue with Tom Chivers about Bayesian probability and the impact Bayesian priors have on ourselves. They define Bayesian priors, Thomas Bayes, subjective aspects of Bayes theorem, and the problematic elements of statistical figures such as Galton, Pearson, and Fisher. They talk about the replication crisis, p-hacking, where priors come from, AI, Friston’s free energy principle, and Bayesian priors in our world today. Tom Chivers is a science writer. He does freelance science writing and also writes for Semafor.com’s daily Flagship email. Before joining Semafor, he was a science editor at UnHerd, science writer for BuzzFeed UK, and features writer for the Telegraph. He is the author of several books including the most recent, Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World. Website: https://tomchivers.com/ Get full access to Converging Dialogues at convergingdialogues.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Xavier Bonilla has a dialogue with Thomas Cech about RNA as a major catalyst in organic systems. They discuss why RNA does not get discussed as much as DNA, basics of DNA, RNA as a catalyst, and the splicing capabilities of RNA. They also talk about transcription, translation, and splicing, RNA as internal catalyst and external catalyst, and the origins of life. They talk about telomeres and extended life, different types of RNA, mRNA vaccines, CRISPR, and many more topics. Thomas Cech is distinguished professor of chemistry and biochemistry at the University of Colorado-Boulder. He has been an Investigator at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) since 1988 and was President of HHMI in 2000-2009. He has his PhD from the University of California-Berkeley and completed his postdoctorate at MIT. His main interests are in RNA and telomeres. He received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry (with Sidney Altman) in 1989 and the National Medal of Science in 1995. He is the author of the latest book, The Catalyst: RNA and the Quest to Unlock Life’s Deepest Secrets. Get full access to Converging Dialogues at convergingdialogues.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Xavier Bonilla has a dialogue with Wendy Pearlman about the voices from the new Syrian Diaspora. They discuss the various reasons for telling Syrian stories, protests around the world, the ongoing Syrian conflict, concept of home and internal displacement. They also talked about leaving Syria and rebuilding elsewhere, maintaining culture, future of the Syrian diaspora, and many other topics. Wendy Pearlman is Crown Professor of Middle East Studies and Interim Director of Middle East and North Africa Studies Program at Northwestern University. Her main interests are comparative politics of the Middle East. She has her Bachelors from Brown University and her PhD from Harvard University. She is the author of numerous books, including the most recent, The Home I Worked to Make: Voices from the new Syrian Diaspora. Get full access to Converging Dialogues at convergingdialogues.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Xavier Bonilla has a dialogue with Eugene Rogan about the 1860 Damascus massacre. They discuss why the 1860 Damascus massacre is still relevant, relationship between Egypt and the Ottomans, Mishaqa as US Vice-Consulate in Damascus, Ottoman Tanzimat Reforms, Druzes and Maronites with rising tensions in Lebanon and Damascus. They also talk about al-Qadir’s influential role, events about the Damascus massacre, defining genocide, aftermath of the massacre, rebuilding Damascus, impact on the modern Middle East, and many more topics. Eugene Rogan is Professor of modern Middle Eastern History at the University of Oxford and a Fellow of the British Academy. He has a Bachelors in economics from Columbia University and Masters and PhD in Middle Eastern history from Harvard. His main interests are the Arab world from the 18th to 20th century. He is the author of numerous books including the most recent, The Damascus Events: The 1860 Massacre and the Making of the Modern Middle East. Get full access to Converging Dialogues at convergingdialogues.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Xavier Bonilla has a dialogue with Maxwell Stearns about potential changes to the Constitution. They discuss the general narrative about the US Constitution, overview of his proposed reforms, third parties as spoilers, generational shifting of parties, and history of political parties in the 19th century. They also talked about positive vs. negative rights, gerrymandering, Germany’s Mixed Member Proportionality, problems with ranked choice voting, and many more topics. Maxwell Stearns is Venable, Baetjer & Howard Professor of Law at the Francis King Carey School of Law at the University of Maryland. His main interests are in Constitutional law and law & economics. He has his Bachelors from the University of Pennsylvania and his JD from the University of Virginia. He is the author of numerous books including the most recent, Parliamentary America: The Least Radical Means of Radically Repairing Our Broken Democracy.Website: https://www.blindspotblog.us/ Get full access to Converging Dialogues at convergingdialogues.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Xavier Bonilla has a dialogue with Aziz Rana about the failures of the US Constitution. They discuss the timeframe of 1887-1987, why people resist criticisms of the US Constitution, and creedal constitutionalism. They discuss the positive aspects of the Constitution, empire settlerism and the US state in post-reconstruction era. They discuss the Socialist Party of America, WWI and pro-constitutionalism, the New Deal, and government elites post WWII. They talk about justices with more authority over the Constitutionalism, originalism, Black Panther movement, the future of the Constitution, and many other topics. Aziz Rana is professor of Law at Boston College Law School where his main interests are American Constitutional law and political development. He has his Bachelors from Harvard College, JD from Yale Law School, and PhD in political science from Harvard University. He has written for The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Guardian, The Chronicle of Higher Education, and The Law and Political Economy Project. He is the author of the latest book, The Constitutional Bind: How Americans came to idolize a document that fails them. Website: https://www.azizrana.com/ Get full access to Converging Dialogues at convergingdialogues.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Xavier Bonilla has a dialogue with Lynn Tesser about the various ways of thinking about empire. They discuss moving from empire to nation states, define nationalism vs. nation states, and sovereignty and modular nationalism. They talk about rebellions in the Americas as being more mixed, the Greek revolution as performed by elites, the Balkans and Anatolia in the post-Ottoman period, Armenia, empire today, and many more topics. Lynn Tesser is an Associate Professor of International Relations at Marine Corps University with a focus on comparative politics, international relations, and history. She has Bachelors in political science from Reed College and her Masters and PhD in political science from the University of Chicago. She has received fellowships from the Social Science Research Council, Fulbright Commission, and the MacArthur and Mellon Foundations. She was a Visiting Fellow at the European University Institute (2019), a Research Fellow at the University of Helsinki’s Aleksanteri Institute for Russian and Eastern European Studies (2011), and an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the International University of Sarajevo (2008-10) as well as at the American University, Girne-Cyprus (2011-12). She is the author of her latest book, Rethinking the End of Empire: Nationalism, State Formation, and Great Power Politics. Get full access to Converging Dialogues at convergingdialogues.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Xavier Bonilla has a dialogue with Batja Mesquita about the impact of culture on emotions. The discuss the distinctions between emotions, feelings, and affect, universalist vs. social constructionist theories, and the expression of emotions. They discuss the MINE vs. OURS framework, emotions in other cultures, shame and how it presents differently in other countries, emotionally acculturating to a new environment, and many other topics. Batja Mesqutia is a is a social psychologist, an affective scientist, and a pioneer of cultural psychology. She is a professor of psychology at the University of Leuven, Belgium, and director of the Center for Social and Cultural Psychology at the University of Leuven. Previously, she was affiliated to Wake Forest University, the University of Michigan, Stanford University, and the University of Amsterdam. Mesquita is one of the world’s leading authorities on the psychological study of cultural differences in emotions. Her most recent research focuses on the role of emotions in multicultural societies. She studies how emotions affect the belonging of minorities in middle schools, and the social and economic integration of “newcomers” (i.e. newly arrived immigrants). She has been a consultant for UNICEF and the WHO, and most recently, she was a member of the core group of scientific advisors for the Happiness and Well-being (SEH) Project, and initiative of the Vatican in partnership with the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN). She is the author of the book, Between Us: How Cultures Create Emotions. Website: https://www.batjamesquita.com/ Get full access to Converging Dialogues at convergingdialogues.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Xavier Bonilla has a dialogue with Natalie Foster about the guarantee framework for economic stability for all Americans. They discuss what is the guarantee and why government involvement is essential, FDR and basic rights, the rise of neoliberal and neoconservative policies, and the features of the guarantee over the past 15 years. They discuss the importance of community organizing, the great recession and bank bailouts, the rise of right-wing and left-wing populism, debt and inflation, the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and the future of the guarantee framework. Natalie Foster is the President and co-founder of the Economic Security Project and a senior fellow at the Aspen Institute Future of Work Initiative. Previously, she was the CEO and co-founder of Rebuild the Dream, a platform for people–driven economic change, with Van Jones. She served as digital director for President Obama’s Organizing for America (OFA) and the Democratic National Committee. She built the first digital department at the Sierra Club and served as the deputy organizing director for MoveOn.org. She’s been awarded fellowships at the Institute for the Future, Rockwood Leadership Institute and New America California, and is a board member of the California Budget and Policy Center, the Change.org global foundation and Liberation in a Generation, a project to close the racial wealth gap. She is the author of the latest book, The Guarantee: Inside the Fight for America’s Next Economy. Website: https://nataliefoster.me/ Get full access to Converging Dialogues at convergingdialogues.substack.com/subscribe