Episode 41: Can Ukraine win?

Suzanne and Ali talk with Ciaran Martin, the former head of the National Cyber Security Centre on the threats – real and imagined – posed by the rapid transformation of our digital world, the role of state and non-state actors, and how we need to rise to the challenge of revolutionary change in telecommunications technology.

Ali and Suzanne are joined by Renad Mansour and Zmkan Ali of Chatham House to discuss their new report on cross-border conflict. Why is Sinjar, stuck between Iraq and Syria, enmired in other ongoing conflicts?  And can anything be done to improve the situation in Sinjar while those conflicts are unresolved? Renad and Zmkan argue that unless the non-state armed groups active in Sinjar are involved in negotiations about the future of Sinjar, then there will be no lasting resolution.

Professor Ali Ansari and Suzanne Raine are joined by Professor Bill Hurst, Director of the Centre for Geopolitics, to ask what we should conclude from the results of the Taiwanese elections on 13 January. Does the election of a President from the Democratic People's Party make tensions with China more likely, or is the lack of a clear winner in the legislature a counter-balance?  And how will these changes impact Taiwan's posture towards China, and China's decision-making regarding Taiwan? 

Suzanne Raine and Ali Ansari start with Baluchistan, and then widen the lens to look at what is driving Iranian aggression in the Middle East. They examine how the threat of force becomes the use of force, and the extent to which apparent co-ordinated Iranian activity might not be quite as simple as it seems.

Professor Phillips O'Brien joins Suzanne and Ali to discuss why enabling Ukraine to win is in the US's strategic interest, and why limited assistance not only protracts the conflict but raises the risk of wider long-term instability in Europe.  

Recent events in Israel and Gaza have highlighted how hard it is to orientate in the absence of clear facts. At these times of crisis, how do political leaders decide what to do? Ali Ansari and Suzanne Raine are joined by the Rt Hon Charles Clarke, who was British Home Secretary at the time of the 7/7 bombings in London, and talks about having to take the decision whether or not to close down the London transport system that day.

Dr Charlie Laderman joins Ali and Suzanne to explore the origins of the dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the current situation, and the real and increasing risk of renewed violence in the Caucasus.About the hosts:Suzanne Raine is an Affiliate Lecturer at the Centre for Geopolitics at Cambridge University. She served for 24 years in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office on foreign policy and national security issues, including postings in Poland, Iraq and Pakistan. She specialised in counter-terrorism and was a senior member of the UK government assessment community. She is also a member of the Board of Trustees of the Imperial War Museum and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).Ali Ansari is Professor of Iranian History and Founding Director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews in the UK. He is also Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.

In 2024, approximately four billion people will be involved in national elections, which in turn will shape how states take geopolitical positions and decisions. Suzanne and Ali consider key themes such as misinformation, manipulation and division which are likely to feature heavily in this major global electoral year.About the hosts:Suzanne Raine is an Affiliate Lecturer at the Centre for Geopolitics at Cambridge University. She served for 24 years in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office on foreign policy and national security issues, including postings in Poland, Iraq and Pakistan. She specialised in counter-terrorism and was a senior member of the UK government assessment community. She is also a member of the Board of Trustees of the Imperial War Museum and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).Ali Ansari is Professor of Iranian History and Founding Director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews in the UK. He is also Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.

Suzanne and Ali discuss the origins of the term and ask how states navigate between pursuit of their interests and being true to their values and ideals.About the hosts:Suzanne Raine is an Affiliate Lecturer at the Centre for Geopolitics at Cambridge University. She served for 24 years in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office on foreign policy and national security issues, including postings in Poland, Iraq and Pakistan. She specialised in counter-terrorism and was a senior member of the UK government assessment community. She is also a member of the Board of Trustees of the Imperial War Museum and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).Ali Ansari is Professor of Iranian History and Founding Director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews in the UK. He is also Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.

Professor Bill Hurst joins Suzanne to explore what — if anything — the expansion of the BRICS signifies for those countries joining and for China, and look at how to interpret indicators about the current state of the Chinese economy.About the hosts:Suzanne Raine is an Affiliate Lecturer at the Centre for Geopolitics at Cambridge University. She served for 24 years in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office on foreign policy and national security issues, including postings in Poland, Iraq and Pakistan. She specialised in counter-terrorism and was a senior member of the UK government assessment community. She is also a member of the Board of Trustees of the Imperial War Museum and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).Ali Ansari is Professor of Iranian History and Founding Director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews in the UK. He is also Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.